Now with the LS polls not far away, it is time for the BJP’s bete noire in Assam, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) to turn the tables: AIUDF leader MP Mr Badruddin Ajmal does not usually mince his words while injecting a communal rhetoric in some of his speeches and public appeals. This time, with the election dates yet to be announced, the import of his latest message to his sizable flock of the faithful , goes well beyond politics.

The MP from Dhubri, lower Assam has enjoined Muslims to stay at home as far as possible from Jan 20 to Jan 26. He apprehends a major outbreak of communal violence in the days ahead, as GOI goes ahead with its much-hyped programme of formally inaugurating the long awaited Ram temple in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh.

His reasoning : there would be large, mainly Hindu crowds on the move all over India , heading to Ayodhya for one of the biggest mass ceremonies in recent times , on Jan 22, the day of the temple ‘s opening. Large crowds of devotees would also be making their return journeys after the ceremony. All through this celebratory period, there could be security problems for Muslims and non-Hindus in moving around normally.

Therefore it would be advisable for Muslims to stay at home for a few days, for the sake of ensuring communal peace and harmony.

In actual terms, Mr Ajmal is really appealing to Muslims to boycott the Ram temple opening celebration in its entirety, deftly presenting the spectre of yet another massive outbreak of communal violence in the state.

Some observers point out that AIUDF leaders must be aware that their proposal runs counter to the sentiments of large body of Muslims in Assam and beyond, who seem to have taken the building of the Ram temple and subsequent political developments in their stride. As with the withdrawal of the special Constitutional status of Kashmir in recent times, there has not occurred any massive, angry outburst of Muslim emotions over the Ram temple anywhere in the country.

Even former Chief Minister of Kashmir, the veteran Mr Farooq Abdullah, probably the seniormost minority leader in India, has stressed that Ram does not necessarily belong only to the Hindus, but to India as a whole. Mr Abdullah’s unexpectedly liberal stand on such a sensitive issue, ceding space to majority community sentiments, has certainly added to his national stature as a statesman.

According to some analysts, the same cannot be said of Mr Ajmal or Mr Asaduddin Owaisi, leader of the AIMIM. These men have reacted predictably, not bothering to reach beyond their immediate band of followers with a secular, positive political message, Ram temple or not.

However, it is too early to dismiss Mr Ajmal’s call to Muslims as mere fear mongering. In case a large section of Muslims in Assam heeds his advice, there would be an automatic consolidation of minority votes, which will not go to the BJP. This would jell nicely with Mr Ajmal’s larger slogan, ‘No vote for the BJP’ addressed to the minorities ahead of the 2024 polls.

The all important question is, to what extent the Muslims would follow the AIUDF’s line: by way of an answer, it needs stressing that during Mr Sarma’s eventful tenure as the state’s Chief Minister, the majority of Muslims have been feeling very insecure, with good reason. With Muslims accounting for around 35% of Assam’s population of 32.5 million-plus, the outcome of elections at some constituencies, de-limitation or not, is contingent on how they vote.

For the record, the AIUDF will contest the Karimganj, Dhubri and Nagaon parliamentary seats, leaving 11 seats for the Congress. The arrangement follows many round of talks among the opposition parties supporting the new I.N.D.I.Alliance, led by the biggest group, Congress. While there has been no announcement yet about opposition seat adjustments, the need to ensure a solid bloc of minority, especially Muslim votes against the BJP was uppermost both for the AIUDF and Congress, for them to put up a challenge to the entrenched BJP.

As stated before, both Congress and the AIUDF would start with certain advantages, as in 2024, the minorities are by and large determined to teach the BJP a lesson. There has been many issues over which especially the Muslims have been deliberately targeted by the state as well as the Central Governments: the catalogue of the community’s grievances is long.

There have been the traumatic experience of harassment and discrimination of the community over the updating of the citizens’ list in Assam during the NRC exercise. Official madrasas have been closed overriding the community’s protests, but more galling has been the controversial demolition exercises (the notorious bulldozer drive) selectively carried out against Muslim-owned properties and assets. There has also been the death of many political opponents through ‘encounters’ carried out by the state police, until recently.

Even the recent delimitation of constituencies was carried out allegedly with a view to weaken the position of Muslims as a vote bank — a charge Mr Sarma does not choose to deny!

While the central government has to a large extent supported Mr Sarma’s hard line approach on all such controversial issues, the state Government has been subjected to stinging criticism from HR groups at home and abroad. Even the judiciary has been openly critical about the state’s demolition drive and the many police encounters that have occurred in Assam in recent years. No wonder there is a feeling among the minorities that they have a score to settle with the ruling BJP in Assam in 2024. (IPA Service)