On the early morning of January 12th, warplanes from the United States and Britain carried out bombings on numerous locations in Yemen. There's a possibility of more attacks by allied forces. President Joe Biden stated that he is ready to order additional actions if needed. These air strikes were in response to nearly two months of attacks by the Houthis on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The group claims that their attacks are to support the Palestinians in Gaza and that they are focusing on ships connected to Israel (they have also launched missiles at southern Israel). However, in reality, their attacks appear indiscriminate, striking any nearby ship, including those from the U.S. and Britain. As a result, the majority of the top global container-shipping firms are now choosing to bypass the Red Sea.

Last month, the United States formed an international alliance to protect a key maritime route. On January 3rd, this coalition issued a "final warning" to the Houthi forces. Just hours after this warning, the Houthis set off a naval drone close to commercial ships and US naval vessels. A week later, they launched an attack on a group of American aircraft carriers and a British destroyer.

The coalition's decision to target the Houthis was justified based on the principle of freedom of navigation, a fundamental aspect of international law. Ignoring their actions would mean accepting the blockade of a crucial maritime route, responsible for about 30% of the world's container traffic. Hapag-Lloyd, a German container company, supported the strikes, stating they were essential to ensure free passage through this critical sea lane. However, the effectiveness of these strikes remains uncertain, given the Houthi's history of resilience.

Originally sparking a Shia uprising in northern Yemen, the Houthi forces rapidly advanced southward in 2014 during the turmoil ensuing from the ousting of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's long-standing dictator. They subsequently took control of most major urban areas in the country. In March 2015, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened with the aim of overthrowing the Houthi regime and reinstating the globally acknowledged government. Saudi authorities initially believed that the conflict could be resolved within six weeks. The conflict evolved into a proxy battle with Iran, and nearly nine years on, the coalition is still struggling to extricate themselves from this complicated and protracted situation.

The kingdom primarily engaged in aerial combat, but these air strikes were largely unsuccessful in removing the Houthis from power. They relied on local allies for ground operations, who proved to be ineffective. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates achieved greater success by deploying thousands of ground troops and establishing trained militias. However, their focus was mainly in southern Yemen, a region where the Houthis had limited support from the outset.

The Houthi forces seemed to pay little heed to the war's toll. Yemen has frequently been labelled as the site of the most severe humanitarian crisis globally. The United Nations estimates that since the onset of the conflict, approximately 223,000 people have lost their lives due to starvation and inadequate healthcare. Currently, 80% of Yemen's population is living in poverty. This situation doesn't seem to affect the Houthis, who have been accused of diverting food aid for their own use, implementing various taxes to generate revenue, and depending on Iran for military assistance. The Houthis have sustained a prolonged blockade on Taiz, a city in southwest Yemen, preventing civilians from accessing food and medical supplies. This tactic mirrors the very actions they criticize Israel for employing in Gaza.

A faction that has grown more robust despite a nine-year conflict that resulted in the deaths of thousands of its soldiers and brought severe hardship to its nation is unlikely to be dissuaded by a handful of precise attacks by the coalition. In fairness, the goals of America and its allies are more limited: they are not seeking to topple the Houthi regime, but rather to halt their assaults on maritime vessels.

America has reported conducting strikes on over 60 targets situated in 16 different locations. This operation involved the use of over 100 precision-guided munitions. The specific targets hit included facilities for command and control, storage sites for munitions, launch systems, production centres, and air-defense radar installations. Four British fighter jets carried out attacks on two airfields, which were being used to launch drones and missiles. According to the Houthis, a total of 73 airstrikes were conducted, resulting in the death of five soldiers and injuries to six others. These strikes are believed to have significantly weakened, though not completely destroyed, the Houthi's armament capabilities.

In the past ten years, Iran has provided the group with a varied collection of anti-ship missiles, among which includes the Paveh with a range of 800 kilometres. According to a report by Fabian Hinz from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a research organization, the Houthis currently have as many as six distinct types of anti-ship cruise missiles and an additional six types of anti-ship ballistic missiles in their arsenal. However, it's noted that many of these ballistic missiles have yet to be tested and proven effective. Besides missiles, the Houthis have also been exploring the use of unmanned surface vessels, commonly referred to as drone boats.

The extent to which this arsenal remains intact after the attacks is uncertain. Due to prior warnings from Western sources and information leaks in the media, the Houthis had several weeks to scatter and hide their weaponry. A significant portion of these weapons are relatively compact and mobile, making them easier to conceal. Should a substantial portion of their weapons have been destroyed, the Houthis might need to limit their missile launches. This could result in a higher interception rate by Western naval forces in the region, potentially leading to a more secure passage for commercial vessels.

"The precise outcomes of the strikes are currently under evaluation," stated the British Ministry of Defence. "However, initial signs suggest that the Houthis' capacity to menace commercial shipping has been significantly impacted."The departure of the Behshad, an Iranian intelligence vessel likely aiding the Houthis, from the Red Sea on January 10th, possibly due to concerns of being a target, is also likely to hinder the group's capabilities.

Conversely, if the arsenal has mostly survived, the Houthis will have the capacity to maintain their current level of operations, or even fulfill their threat to escalate their campaign. Mr. Hinz suggests that over time, the group could restock its arsenal by covertly importing new systems in disassembled form. Anti-ship missiles, which can be easily dismantled, contrast with the more complex larger solid-fuelled ballistic missiles. Additionally, they could adapt land-attack ballistic missiles for anti-ship purposes using local facilities and guidance kits supplied by Iran.

Iran will likely continue its support. Since 2015, its ties with the Houthis have strengthened. Providing arms and training to the group has been a straightforward method for Iran to challenge its arch-enemy, Saudi Arabia, and establish a presence on the Arabian Peninsula. Recent events appear to affirm the effectiveness of this approach. Iran, which already has the capability to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near its southern coast, now has the means to immobilize another crucial maritime route through the Houthis. "The Red Sea offers even greater strategic advantage since Iran can exert influence indirectly," notes a Gulf diplomat. Given the effectiveness of the Houthis, it's likely that Iran will continue, and possibly increase, its support to them.

Engaging in conflict with Western powers might bring additional advantages for them. Their alleged blockade against Israel has garnered increased respect throughout the Arab world, resonating with pro-Palestinian feelings during a period when Arab nations are largely passive observers to the conflict in Gaza. Being a target of American actions, especially at a time when anti-American sentiment is heightened due to President Biden's backing of Israel, could further boost their standing.

This situation might also bolster their position in peace negotiations with Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis might have previously welcomed Western attacks on the Houthis, their stance has now shifted to advocating for restraint. This change is due to the risk of the Houthis intensifying their campaign by targeting Gulf states with missiles or drones, a tactic they have employed numerous times before. The developments of the last two months are likely to remind the Saudis of the importance of reaching an agreement to conclude their conflict, even if it results in the Houthis becoming the predominant power in Yemen.

The United States is keen to avoid becoming entangled in another protracted conflict in the Middle East. In contrast, the Houthis are not deterred by such concerns. They have survived the aggressive counter-insurgency campaigns led by Mr. Saleh and have worn down the Saudi-led coalition. Now, they are likely satisfied with having involved America in what appears to be an ongoing and indefinite military engagement. (IPA Service)