There are so many variables that having even an ideological shape-shifter on your side lifts the spirits. Whatever, there could be reasons galore for having Nitish Kumar and nothing uplifting about any of them. The fact is, the BJP is perhaps in some kind of a bind, and is not entirely confident of getting out of it. And this when the BJP was claiming a 2024 sweep – 400+ seats and all 40 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar and that when Nitish Kumar was in the Opposition alliance.

What happened to the confidence? Apparently, the consecration of the Ayodhya Ram Mandir opened a third BJP eye and Nitish Kumar is ’Laxman’ to BJP’s ‘Ram’ Narendra Modi. Then again, why? Why, why, why the urgent need for the BJP to seek a turncoat’s slippery shoulder? Does Nitish Kumar have a magic wand? Is he a bigger vote-catcher than Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Is there something special about Nitish Kumar?

Union Home Minister Amit Shah had shut the door on Nitish Kumar 18 months ago, in 2022, pledging “never, never again”. Today, Shah has eaten crow and Prime Minister Narendra Modi humble pie. The two should rightly hide their faces. But no, Modi on January 29 congratulated Nitish Kumar for being yet again Bihar’s Chief Minister and Shah forgot his “never, never again” pledge. Being untruthful so soon after the ‘Pran Pratishtha’ of Lord Shri Ram tells a story.

Of course, political pundit Prashant Kishor says the newly-installed Nitish Kumar-Modi/Shah Bihar government will come unstuck before the 2025 Bihar assembly polls are underway. Kishor forgets a cat has nine lives and this is Nitish’s ninth. The question remains what made Modi and Shah give Nitish Kumar another chance at playing Chief Minister?

Yes, Nitish Kumar is the only Chief Minister who has been playing Chief Minister and he does it with a felicity that comes with practice, though that practice hasn’t helped Bihar get out of ‘Bimaru’ morass. But calling Nitish Kumar ‘Palturam’ is wrong. In 2022, Lalu Yadav’s RJD was ‘Palturam’. This time, it is Modi-Shah’s BJP. Other people and other parties shifted stance, and switched sides — Nitish Kumar as Bihar Chief Minister has been the only constant in Bihar politics for nearly 20 years.

The Janata Dal-United president is a phenomena, even if the butt of endless taunts ever since he went and did what was always expected of him — switch sides. The heat is on the Modi-Shah duo. Even the so-called ‘godi media’ is against this remarriage for convenience and are asking troubling questions of the BJP, following which the BJP is looking and acting sheepish. Modi congratulated Nitish on his return to the mother-ship but BJP leaders like Giriraj Singh and Samrat Thakur — who is one of Nitish Kumar’s two newly-appointed deputy chief ministers — can’t hide their displeasure.

Modi and Shah don’t have answers. The BJP voter’s hate for Nitish Kumar is dyed in the wool. The “why did Modi-Shah choose to back Nitish Kumar?” crescendo will only grow in cacophony as the general elections close in on the BJP. Nitish Kumar says he dumped Lalu Yadav’s RJD because the alliance government had slid into non-performance and Nitish felt humiliated and disrespected in the alliance.

The entire Lalu clan was out to make him feel unwanted, which is also why the BJP bent over backwards to accommodate Nitish Kumar. Modi and Shah felt “bad” for Nitish Kumar, considering Nitish Kumar’s age and stature. That is bulls—it. The BJP votebank cannot be so naïve and dumb to fall for such dribble. Since when did Modi-Shah become do-gooders and saviours? Politicians never give alms unless it’s direct from the government exchequer, which explains Modi’s free rations/houses etcetra, etcetra.

Helping themselves is more like politicians and Modi and Shah are no exceptions. The overriding reason for the BJP’s about turn is the 40 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants all 40 of them. The current break-up is 17 BJP, 16 JDU, 6 LJP and 1 Congress. The Modi-Shah duo is taking a gamble. The Opposition INDI-Alliance is riding roughshod on the BJP.

The threat posed by the INDI-Alliance and Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra — which entered Bihar Monday, January 29 — to Modi’s third-term prime ministerial ambition are real. There are those in the BJP who believe Nitish Kumar will help Modi-Shah save more than just blushes. But then, there are also reasons to believe that when the votes are counted, the story will be entirely different.

Here’s the look from the BJP’s side of the aisle: One, Nitish Kumar’s latest flip-flop will be a big jolt for the INDI-Alliance. Nitish Kumar was the driving force behind the opposition’s alliance, to the extent that there wouldn’t have been the INDIA bloc without Nitish Kumar. Even Congress leaders acknowledge this. The BJP believes by getting Nitish Kumar on the BJP’s side, the INDI-Alliance’s back is broken.

Two, INDI-Alliance’s seat-sharing troubles apart, losing Bihar to the NDA is a big setback to the opposition’s firepower. “News” that the INDI-Alliance stands decimated after Nitish Kumar’s “exit” is already being spread even as differences between Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee are being amplified 24/7 by sections of the mainstream media. Nitish Kumar’s exit so close to the general elections has surely impacted INDI-Alliance’s prospects in the perception battle.

Three, BJP does not consider Nitish Kumar a liability. Giving the ‘Bharat Ratna’ to Karpoori Thakur actually boosted Nitish Kumar’s image among his votebank. Kumar also has a hold on certain sections of the Muslim vote. Nitish Kumar’s image of “Sushashan Babu” must have taken several hits but the BJP, under the circumstances, prefers a weakened Nitish Kumar than one with teeth. For this reason alone, having Nitish Kumar on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s side is better than not having him at all. Nitish Kumar is in the NDA solely because Modi wants him in the NDA. Period. (IPA Service)