The very first thing being brought to notice is that BJP and the Nitish Kumar led JD(U) had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election together. They had also Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP as their ally. On their joint strength they had won altogether 39 seats out of 40 – BJP 17, JD(U) 16, and LJP 6. BJP and NDA leaders are claiming that they would be able to win all 40 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election, which is not possible at all for several reasons.

First, by repeatedly betraying his political allies, Nitish Kumar has just lost his face and reliability as a leader. It cannot be presumed that all his supporters and voters are of the same kind and continue to support them even in his rank dishonesty and political intrigue. Moreover, his recent sex related remark in the Vidhan Sabha has tarnished his image among the people of the state. BJP leaders have until now left no stone unturned in exposing his misgovernance in the state, which had just fueled significant level of anti-incumbency against him. Secondly, Ram Vilas Paswan is no more and LJP has undergone split. BJP’s other allies in the state have still little influence.

Thirdly, political scenario in the state in the meantime has undergone a sea change. Presently, in 243 seat Bihar Legislative Assembly, RJD with 79 seats is the largest political party, BJP with 78 seats is the second largest, and the JD(U) with 45 seats comes third. With switch over of Nitish to BJP, NDA has now 128 seats and the INDIA bloc has 114 seats. It is therefore, there is no walkover for the BJP or NDA in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election, because the state is heading towards a closer contest between NDA and INDIA bloc.

The ground political scenario has also changed and has become ever more complex. How the anti-incumbency against Nitish would translate into votes is still uncertain, and the impact of Ram Temple inauguration is untested. Additionally, the way the new NDA government is formed, shows that BJP has now upper hand over the JD(U) in utter disregard to Nitish Kumar’s wish by just bringing his two bete-noires as Deputy Chief Ministers. Though, BJP has retained Nitish as Chief Minister, he is set to be humiliated by his deputies and his support base would be depleted systematically won over by the BJP, leaving JD(U) much weaker in the state. Nitish would have to play second fiddle to BJP, and it may not be surprise, if Prashant Kishor’s prediction would come true that Nitish may again ditch BJP under political agony within NDA. No one can say with certainty what Nitish would do during pre-poll and post-poll political scenario.

It is in this scenario, NDA cannot repeat its performance at the level of 2019, which means it would lose its seats. How much? Only the election result would reveal. As of now we know only the Vidhan Sabha election 2020 results, according to which BJP and JD(U) have considerably lost their vote shares despite contesting together compared to both 2015 Vidhan Sabha election and 2019 Lok Sabha election. The pertinent question at the moment is: Can BJP and JD(U) coming together reverse their decline in vote share revealed in the 2020 election result? If they cannot reverse their decline, any loss of NDA partners would be gain for INDIA alliance partners in the state. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has even claimed that JD(U) is all set to be “finished” in Lok Sabha polls.

As for the political fate of INDIA bloc across the country is concerned, BJP leaders and many analysts have claimed that it is crumbling down. They specifically mention seat sharing troubles in the four states – West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab. In Punjab, BJP has little presence and hence AAP going solo will not benefit BJP at all, neither pre-poll not post-poll.

In West Bengal, though Mamata Banerjee has declared TMC will contest all 42 seats on its own, her reaction on Nitish Kumar’s switching over to BJP, is worth noting. She said that it was good riddance for INDIA bloc, since with considerable anti-incumbency, the bloc could not have won more than 6-7 seats with Nitish within it. Her reaction reveals that Mamata Banerjee may have some understanding with INDIA bloc, both in pre-poll and post-poll scenario.

In Uttar Pradesh, where there is still seat-sharing troubles, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has said, “Today, a new record of betrayal has been made. … The public will give a befitting reply to this. … the public will respond to this insult by defeating BJP alliance in the Lok Sabha election.” AAP leader Raghav Chadha in Delhi has said that it was dangerous the way MLAs were “bought” and governments toppled using money and threat of agencies.

In brief, reactions of all political parties within INDIA block show that they are greatly pained by Nitish Kumar’s ‘betraying’ the Bloc. Such expressions reveal the keen desire among the political parties in INDIA bloc to offer a direct contest to BJP and NDA candidates as far as possible.

Leaders of Congress, DMK, JMM, TMC, CPI(ML)-L, and even AAP have attacked Nitish Kumar for his stunning vote face, less than 18 months after he parted ways with BJP and formed the “Mahagathbandhan’ government in Bihar. Since Nitish Kumar had initiated the opposition alliance move and hosted first INDIA bloc meeting in Patna, everyone was shocked by his U-turn, NCP leader Shard Pawar was also one of them. The reactions among the INDIA alliance partners, despite certain problems in seat-sharing, show that the Bloc is not crumbling down, but the game has just begun in the pre-poll environment, to be continued during the election and after the results will be out. Challenges of pre-poll seat-sharing and joint campaigns might be taken in right earnest now, and a strategy for post-polls scenario to be ready before poll results. Whoever thinks, the game is over of INDIA bloc are mistaken. (IPA Service)