Kashi Vishwanath – Gyanvapi Mosque controversy of Varanasi and Krishna Janmabhoomi – ShahiIdgah issue of Mathura are adding much fuel to the communal fire, resulting in the politics of the state communally surcharged. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to win all the 80 Lok Sabha seats of the state riding on Hindu communal wave in its favour, which the opposition believes is impossible chiefly on account of large number of religiously secular Hindus, not yet ready to fall prey to the Hindutva forces bent upon hijacking the entire ‘Sanatan Dharm’ to form a “political Hindu religion”, whose certification would decide who would be Hindu and who would not. Be.

For example, a political Hindu saint, the chief priest of Ram Temple of Ayodhya had referred to Chief Minister of West Bengal and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee by a Muslim name Mumtaj Khan. RSS-BJP clan, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been declaring opposition political parties and their leaders as anti-Hindu. Such a tendency of providing certification by RSS-BJP clan is deemed dangerous by sober and non-political Hindus.

BJP has actually launched a psycho-political warfare to frustrate the hope of the opposition in the state, chiefly Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav, who is still keeping his morale high, with a very large support base among OBCs and the Minorities. PDA is his new political formula that he believes would upset the BJP’s applecart in the state. The formula relies heavily on Peechhda (OBCs), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (minority).

Dalits of the state have been polarized chiefly behind the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) led by Mayawati for quite some time. BSP had a vote share of 19.43 per cent in the Lok Sabha election 2019, when it contested as ally of Mahagathbandhan of three parties – SP, BSP, and RLD. However, by 2022 state election, BSP’s support base has declined to 12.88 per cent, a sign of shift in Dalit votes away from Mayawati. Nevertheless, Mayawati has already announced that her party would be contesting on its own. This situation kindled SP’s hope of getting considerable support from Dalits.

SP had a vote share of 18.11 per cent and its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had 1.69 per cent in the Lok Sabha election 2019. However, 2022 Vidhan Sabha election result had revealed that SP’s share has sharply risen to 32.06 per cent, which was a swing to 10.24 per cent in its favour.

As for the minority Muslim votes are concerned, they have been strategic for the last three decades. They tend to vote the strongest opposition candidate in every constituency who can defeat the BJP’s candidate. With BJP’s communal Hindutva posturing to an unprecedented level has made the entire Muslim community politically or otherwise insecure, and hence their strategic voting would be, by and large, in favour of the SP Candidates.

Presently, Congress is yet to recover from the political shock of state election 2022, when the party’s support base had dwindled to just 2.33 per cent, compared to 6.36 per cent it got in the Lok Sabha election 2019. Though, the party and its leaders, especially Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, are increasingly galvanizing people in favour of the Congress, there is every possibility that it may not get considerable benefit without alliance with Samajwadi Party.

There have been seat-sharing problems between the SP and the Congress, however, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi have been giving statements generating some hope of either seat-sharing or tacit understanding on certain constituencies. SP has offered the Congress eleven out off 80 seats. Congress wants few more seats. It is in te interests of INDIA bloc thatb the seat sharing talks are concluded amicably.

BJP’s claim of winning all 80 Lok Sabha seat seems to be hype, given the ground level reality, despite higher Hindutva pitch. BJP had won 71 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election, however, it lost 14 of them in 2019, but by winning 5 other seats it could bag 62 seats. BJP’s ally Apna Dal had won two seats in 2019. BJP’s vote share in 2019 was 49.98 per cent, that went down to 41.29 per cent in 2022 Vidhan Sabha election. Even to maintain 2019 tally of 62 seats, BJP would thus need to reverse the declining support base by at least 8.69 per cent. Can the recent Hindutva posturing of PM Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath reverse BJP’s decline to such a level? Winning more than 62 seats would need even greater level of swing of votes in favour of the BJP in every constituency, not only in those where BJP is dominant.

Out of 403 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, BJP could win only 255 seats in 2022, which was 57 less than it had got in 2017 state election, indicating growing unpopularity of Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister. In non-political Hindus, and in other communities, Yogi is still unpopular for his arrogance.

As against this SP and its leader Akhilesh Yadav, remains increasingly popular among secularly religious Hindus, minorities, OBCs, and now even a chunk of Dalits. It had a very good impact on political fortune of SP which won 111 Vidhan Sabha seats in 2022, and there seems to be no reason of shift in its support base in favour of any other political party including the BJP, despite Hindutva hype. The total unity of INDIA bloc parties is the only guarantee to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh. (IPA Service)