Apparently, Mr Karunanidhi would like the Congress to continue to extend support from outside even after the next assembly elections due by May 2011, though he would go all out to ensure that DMK gets an absolute majority of its own and do away with state of dependence and avoid power-sharing. The Chief Minister also reportedly favours the poll being advanced, to be held before the end of 2010, as conditions are deemed to be ideal, both politically and administratively, for DMK to secure a stronger mandate. This was one of the matters he would have broached with Ms. Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh during his New Delhi visit on May 2 and 3.

The major question for the Congress leadership of UPA is how far to go on Mr Karunanidhi's terms, both at the Centre where the 18-member DMK is a critical ally, “a pillar of strength” for the ruling alliance, as Ms. Sonia Gandhi put it as recently as March 13 when the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh inaugurated the new Rs.425-crore Assembly/Secretariat Complex in Chennai and both lauded the leadership and political acumen of the DMK patriarch. Not that this ally goes along with Centre's policies in toto, maybe a little more restrained than the other power-sharing Trinamul Congress led by a belligerent Ms. Mamata Banerjee. In less than a year, a dramatic change in power equations has rendered UPA vulnerable with undependable groups whose support from outside had been taken for granted.

Mr Karunanidhi could not have timed his visit better, as UPA attempts to beef up its base for the rest of its term till 2014, and as it coincided with the uproar in Parliament over the 2G spectrum dealings involving the Telecommunications Minister Mr A Raja (DMK), one of his trusted nominees in the Union Cabinet. The DMK leader contended that Mr Raja was being attacked maliciously by “dominant forces” as he is a “Dalit”, a ploy he cleverly employed to reject the demand for his resignation. That the UPA Government, no longer on solid foundations, is hardly in a position to pursue the matter, whatever the allegations by the combined opposition against Mr Raja, or the moral or ethical aspects thereof. Indeed Congress spokesmen have already rushed to the defence of Mr Raja in the wake of Mr Karunandhi's meetings with Central leaders.

The DMK Chief's visit was ostensibly for discussion with the Planning Commission on the annual plan for Tamil Nadu 2010-11, but gave Mr Karunanidhi the opportunity he needed to push his political agenda, given the proximity he has enjoyed with the Central Congress leadership. But Mr Karunanidhi, who has nearly got away with everything he wanted in New Delhi till now, has his own frailities — he is up against the distressing rivalry for succession between his two office-holding sons.

Mr Karunanidhi had last year virtually named the younger M K Stalin (56) to take on the mantle, by designating him as Deputy Chief Minister with key portfolios. But trouble started building up after the 86-year old DMK patriarch announced at the turn of the year that he would go “closer to the people, leaving ministerial position” after the World Tamil Conference in June 2010. The elder son, M K Alagiri, Union Minister for Fertilisers and Chemicals, has in recent months resisted this idea despite his father having been in public life for 72 years, and said he would not accept any other leadership and would be a contestant in the event of election to the party head. Finding the rivalry gaining headlines, Mr Karunanidhi has declined to say when exactly he would be handing over the responsibility originally scheduled for June. “It will be left to me to decide the timing”, he remarked, but he had expressed confidence in Mr Stalin's ability to govern.. He has now asked his partymen not talk to media on “matters concerning the party”.

Meanwhile, Mr Alagiri himself has had problems at the Centre, his insistence that he would speak only in Tamil, if at all, and his being away most of the time, including a holiday abroad while Parliament was in session. He is reportedly keen to be back in state politics with the command he has over the southern districts in Tamil Nadu. Mr Karunanidhi insists there would be no succession battle when he retires and there have been moves to demonstrate the family togetherness including his stay in New Delhi at Mr Alagiri's residence. Also, he is said to favour the latter's sister Ms. Kanimozhi, Rajya Sabha MP, being accommodated in the Central Cabinet in case of Mr Alagiri not willing to hang on in Delhi.

The DMK leader has exploited his political value for UPA's durability at the Centre and must be counting on the current relations to continue, no matter Mr Rahul Gandhi's forays into Tamil Nadu to build Youth Congress and not making secret of his desire to see the Congress in power in near future. Ms. Sonia Gandhi's public utterances and praise of the “elder statesman” of Tamil Nadu remains a tonic for DMK, which downplayed an exchange of pleasantries at a New Delhi function between the Congress President and the rival AIADMK leader Ms. Jayalalithaa. .

Politically, things have never been so good for DMK, winning a series of assembly by-elections since 2006 including a crucial contest in Pennagaram in March in which the AIADMK candidate lost his deposit. More than that, its series of populist schemes and administrative measures over the last year designed to please poorer sections and castes, have generated confidence to go ahead with an early poll. Mr Karunanidhi had delivered on most of his 2006 promises including debt waiver, Re. one per kg of rice, free colour TV sets and gas stoves.

The 2006 alliance, led by DMK, which had included PMK and Left parties had split before the Lok Sabha elections in2009. The Left parted company over DMK support for the Indo-US nuclear deal while PMK of Dr Ramadoss was forced out on policy differences with DMK. These parties aligned with AIADMK for the Lok Sabha election but suffered badly. AIADMK, however, gained 9 seats after its total rout in 2004 while DMK won 18 out of the 28 seats for the alliance including the Congress. Though Ms. Jayalalithaa is gearing up to fight the next elections, the disarray in opposition makes the DMK-Congress alliance look the more promising alternative. (IPA)