The state saffron camp is on an all out drive to boost the drooping morale of the party rank and file. Even as leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari and state BJP chief Sukanta Majumdar are getting their share of optics when police block their way to Sandeshkhali such endeavours are part and parcel of a drive to make the activists hit the ground running for the coming election campaign.

As for the INDIA alliance, it has ceased to exist in West Bengal at the moment. After TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee clearly stating that her party will go solo in Lok Sabha elections, two other constituents of the alliance Congress and CPI(M) are yet to get their act together

Recently, a meeting scheduled to be held between CPI(M) state secretary, Md Salim and state Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury could not be held at Berhampore. Though the meeting venue was part of the Congress leader's parliamentary constituency and Salim had visited it, talks could not be held.

To make matters worse, confusion prevails among both Congress and Left voters in West Bengal. They are unsure of their "actual political opponent" as while their respective leaderships after closing ranks against BJP are firing broadsides against Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in equal measure.

What complicates the matter for these prospective Opposition voters is that the Congress and the CPI(M) leadership are critical of local issues though a nationwide election is round the corner. That TMC is the bane to the existence of both the Congress and the Left in West Bengal, a fact which the leaderships of these political parties are yet to convince the voters.

The situation is more complex for the state Congress. As a section of its rank file and leaders are engaged in a war of words with TMC, the party's national leadership seeks an alliance with it though the ruling dispensation in the state has offered the Congress only two seats in the coming polls. The Congress high command has still not given green signal to the state party to go ahead with the Left, still hoping that at the last moment, Mamata will dilute her stand and offer the state Congress two more seats.

However the TMC would be in for a tougher poll battle if the BJP cuts into what had been the Left vote bank Successive election results since the '90s are a pointer that it is time to shelve the concept of "committed voters". In Bengal now, the TMC supremo has a committed vote bank, the BJP has also a devoted vote bank now, but that is still far less compared to TMC, even taking into account some impact of Ram Mandir inauguration on the Hindu Bengalees in the state. The Left voting base is don to less than 10 per cent and the Congress at much less between 4 to 6 per cent

With the circumstances boiling down to a TMC versus BJP election, the saffron camp is eyeing those voters of the Left and Congress who feel that instead of remaining the "old faithful" casting their votes for the BJP nominee is a better option. To defeat the TMC which is the immediate enemy in the state politics. For it is the saffron camp which can only take on the TMC head on in West Bengal.

With a two-fold objective, the saffron camp leaders have stepped on the pedal. Their twin goals are to mount pressure on the TMC government in which Sandeshkhali provides a special edge together with cornering a big chunk of Left and Congress votes who are anti-TMC to the core.

Ever since 2011 assembly election, minority community votes have been cast in favour of TMC candidates. In 2019 and 2021 elections, the minority voters had been the bulwark of the TMC regime despite the saffron poll juggernaut headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The victory of Trinamool nominee at Kolkata (south), Mala Roy seemed uncertain in 2019 Lok Sabha elections though this is inarguably one of the safest seats of her party from which none other than Mamata Banerjee contested and won on successive occasions. Roy trailing behind a newcomer BJP nominee Chandra Bose took a lead and went past Bose only after the counting reached minority-dominated assembly segment.

Minority community voters expressed their support for TMC wholeheartedly in other constituencies too though Congress candidates Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and A H Khan Chowdhury emerged victorious at Behrampore and Malda (North) Lok Sabha seats. The victory of BJP nominee Khagen Murmu at Malda (South) was considered to be an expression of support for a scheduled tribe community candidate from voters of his community. In 2021 assembly election, the ISF candidate Nousad Siddiquie was the only non-BJP candidate elected from a Muslim dominated constituency by defeating the TMC.

TMC leadership has taken note of the adverse impact of some of the latest scams involving te ruling party and also te fall out of Sandeshkhali affairs. As a result, the focus is more on ensuring benefits to the common people, mainly poor through te government’s different schemes. Trinamool stands to make significant electoral gains in the coming polls due to these schemes.. The enthusiasm for Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyasree, Sabuj Sathi to name a few will make many women and new voters cast their votes for Trinamool candidates.

The consistent anti-BJP stance of TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee has added to her charisma increasing her appeal to voters manifold. It has to be kept in mind that there are few supporters of the policy of mixing religion with politics in West Bengal, a reason why coming up of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya will not be having a major impact in this state

The announcement by chief minister, Mamata Banerjee that outstanding payment for MNREGA is to be made by March 1 has endeared her to people cutting across the party lines. It is likely to have a major share of beneficiaries in Jungle Mahal, Jhargram, Bankura, Purulia where BJP nominees registered shock victories in 2019 elections.

With an eye on cornering Matua community votes, Banerjee has declared Mamatabala Thakur as a TMC candidate for Rajya Sabha. It is sought to offset the BJP advantage in Bongaon, Ranaghat and Krishnagar where vote of this community is a deciding factor and a message is sent to it by candidature of Mamatabala, a member of the spiritual head quarters of the community.

If the saffron camp seeks to highlight the arrest and imprisonment of senior TMC ministers like Partha Chatterjee and Jyotipriya Mallick on corruption charges, the TMC leadership is seeking to counter it by a theory of political vendetta. They intend to underscore their contention as several anti-BJP party leaders are under the scanner of ED and CBI while there is. none in their ranks from BJP ruled states.

Honour of the women folk has always been a emotive issue in this state which is presently on the boil over Sandeshkhali developments. For once, chief minister Banerjee is on the back foot and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to raise the issue in his meeting in the state next .month. PM is scheduled to hold a meeting on March 7 at Barasat the division comprising Sandeshkhali. Modi will certainly utilize the occasion to highlight the failure of law and order in the state but this was the refrain in 2021 assembly polls and it did not click.

The moot point is TMC till now has the advantage of having Mamata Banerjee as its leader and she inspires the confidence of the underprivileged despite series of scams committed by her party leaders and violence by party members. Only a total unity of all anti-TMC political forces can take on the TMC in Lok Sabha polls. That is not happening in the 2024 polls. That way, the TMC has political advantage as against the divided opposition. Instead of increasing, the BJP tally is expected to go down under the present political circumstances. (IPA Service)