With 99 percent of the vote counted and the highest turnout in two decades, the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) — led by the Social Democrats — and the center-left Socialists were separated by only 438 votes, with both hovering near 29 percent. The far-right Chega Party did exceeding well by becoming third with 18 percent, more than doubling its 2022 result.

Exit polls released after balloting stations closed on Sunday had suggested a clear center-right victory. But as the tallies were counted, official result reflected a photo finish — in part because of the extraordinary inroads made by the far right. By conceding, the Socialists, who have ruled since 2015, appeared to fend off the possibility that the center-right could break its pledge not to go into coalition with Chega to form a government.

The Socialists “didn’t win the elections. It will lead the opposition,” said Pedro Nuno Santos, leader of the Socialists and candidate for prime minister, told supporters in Lisbon early Monday. He said an analysis of the outstanding vote favoured a victory for the center-right. The Socialists were expecting a decline in their fortunes but they never thought that the far right would double their voter percentage and emerge as the third party. Originally the AD had no political or electoral understanding with Chega Party but its performance and the Socialists deciding to sit in opposition , may led to some accord between AD and Chega to form the new government.

The Portuguese elections have been closely watched on both sides of the Atlantic during a year when former U.S. president Donald Trump is seeking to take back the White House and far-right parties are polling strong in France, Austria and Germany. Sweden, a liberal nation for long, has joined NATO. The far right parties are briskly preparing to capture substantial seats in the European Union elections in June this year.

“Portugal is a laboratory for the electoral year in Europe,” said António Costa Pinto, a political expert with the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon. The Socialist Party ran a government for many years with the support of the Left parties including the Communist Party which is quite strong among the trade unions. Prime Minister Costas had high credibility and he steered the course of the economy during covid years with success. Portugal’s economic performance was appreciated by EU as also the financial institutions.

But in the recent months, the country witnessed political corruption scandals, a housing crisis, high inflation and low wages. The election came four months after the Socialist government collapsed in November 2023 amid an influence-peddling investigation, and as the center-right Social Democrats faced their own financial scandal that forced the resignation of two party officials.

Both the main parties, the ruling centre-left Socialist Party and the opposition centre-right Social Democratic Party suffered from corruption scandals. Voters who supported Chega responded to the party’s anti-corruption message and its claims, despite a lack of evidence, that Portugal is being overrun by migrants who are committing more crimes. The party is led by Ventura, a 41-year-old former sportscaster with a massive social media reach. Like other European countries, the sentiments against the migrants grew and Chega took full advantage in the Sunday elections.

Sunday’s vote was triggered by the fall of the Socialist government under António Costa, an elder statesman of the European left who resigned as prime minister in November amid an investigation into alleged corruption in his administration’s handling of lithium mines and hydrogen projects. Costa — who is unrelated to the University of Lisbon’s Costa Pinto — has not been accused of any crime.

Costa’s replacement as head of the Socialist Party, Nuno Santos, resigned as infrastructure minister at the end of 2022 over a scandal surrounding Portugal’s state-owned airline company, TAP. Both the mainstream political parties were tested by the people in the government. Chega took the campaign to a higher plank by telling the voters that they offer an alternative. The social media helped them in spreading disinformation about the activities of the migrants to show them in poor light.

The 62 year old Antonio Costa who has his ancestry in Goa in India ruled as Prime Minister since 2015.The present government was formed after January 30, 2022 elections when the Socialist Party on its own got majority of the 230 member Parliament and ruled without depending on other left wing parties. After his resignation on November 7 last year, President announced the snap polls on March 10 this year.

The stormy political development was sudden as the Supreme Court started examining suspects who used the PM office to pursue the corrupt practices. The investigators identified senior ministers and officials for involvement leaving no option left for the Socialist PM except resigning. Mr. Costa however pleaded that he was personally not involved. He said ‘I totally trust the justice system and I want to say eye to eye to the Portuguese people that my conscience is clear of any illicit or censured act’.

As regards the Left Bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party, both were allies of the Prime Minister Costa before the January 30, 2022 elections. PCP which has a big base among the trade unions in Portugal withdrew its support to the last Costa government over concessions to labour in the budget and that led to early elections leading to further consolidation of the Prime Minister Costa. This time, the government fell not due to the Left but for the investigations done by the Supreme Court.

The March 10 elections further marginalized the Left bloc and the Communist Party. The number will be very small this time. The fourth placed Party is also a conservative party. Earlier the Left emerged as the third largest group. That situation changed after January 2022 elections. The process of rightwing shift and left marginalization continues in Portugal. It will be seen finally what type of right coalition takes power as the new government in Lisbon. (IPA Service)