The NPC is like Indian parliament and its importance in China is far less compared to the Congress of the Communist Party (CPC) which was last held in October 2022. So that way, the NPC delegates numbering around 2,000 could review the performance of the Chinese economy and polity in the last seventeen months since the Party Congress and take some course corrections.

In fact, this process of course correction has been a continuous process of the functioning of the CPC since Xi Jinping took over the leadership in 2012. In the last twelve years, there had been excesses in dealing with the chiefs of the state owned bodies as also CEOs of high tech companies. Harsh treatment was meted to the owners of leading real estate companies as also finance bodies. But in the last one year, President Xi has taken measures to dilute the earlier harsh decisions to ensure that the high tech sector does not slow down by any means. The deliberations at the just concluded NPC vindicated that stand of the Party supremo Xi.

The NPC deliberations signal two important trends. First, the main focus will be on achieving 5 per cent growth in the economy during 2024 and this will have to be achieved with the increased participation of high tech sectors which have to reach a much higher level with the help of AI to take on the United States in terms of the size of the economy in coming years. As a follow up of this, some of the high tech CEOs who had to face wrath from President Xi in earlier years, have been rehabilitated. The mainland friendly Chinese- American techies have been encouraged to come back to the country and participate in the massive developmental programme.

The NPC confirmed the priorities of innovation and self-reliance in technology, particularly as the United States and its allies continue to place arbitrary economic, trade and financial sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals. The Chinese leadership does not foresee any major geopolitical tensions in 2024 .Though the defence spending has been hiked by 7.2 per cent for 2024, the amount is much less than the US spending . Analysts say that finally, the hike may be less at the end of the year.

The big focus on economy during 2024 has been given on the basis of the CPC leadership’s understanding that China has time till the end of the year to concentrate solely on economic development as the geopolitical situation is not expected to deteriorate significantly during the year to adversely affect China’s interests. Rather, the situation may help China in the coming months in terms of geopolitics. Xi Jinping’s trusted friend President Putin is getting elected for the fifth term in the presidential elections held in Russia on March 17 next. Russia is a strategic ally and China is the dominating power among the two. Putin’s election is positive for China’s geopolitical aims. Then the elections to European Union in June this year. There will be a far right shift but this will be more nationalistic and anti-US in tone. China can gain from EU shift in terms of trade from the European nations in the coming period.

Most important is the Presidential elections in USA in November this year. If Donald Trump wins, there will be an impact on trade relations and tariff war may intensify. But at the same time, Trump is a deal master, he is interested in getting something to show the Americans. China has enough weapons in its kitty to arrive at a win win situation for both through such deals... US high tech is very important for China for its speedy growth. China will work for that irrespective of President Biden or Donald Trump in White House in 2025.

China under Xi Jinping is genuinely concerned at the prospect of the US circumscribing it, politically, economically and even militarily. This could take many forms. Xi has a keen eye for the latest developments in science and technology, information and cyber warfare, and he knows the problems which the US could create for aspiring China to take its rightful place in 2049. While keeping its option open for collaboration with the US on hi-tech space and infra projects where does India stand within Xi’s vision of New China? India, according to the new vision of Xi, is not a big player in global scenario, but Chinese leaders take into account seriously that India is giving some competition to China in the area of economy.

India is the largest functioning democracy in the world in terms of population. China does not like a vibrant democracy like India to fare better in terms of economy. China is angry that Indian government is taking restrictive measures against the Chinese companies operating in the country. Simultaneously, China is also worried that some of the top US hi-tech companies are considering shifting some scheduled investments from China to India. China has taken note that just as China is aspiring to emerge as the largest economy in the world overtaking USA by 2049, India also is set to become the third largest economy shortly surpassing Japan and Germany. Right now, India is the fourth largest economy.

Indian commentators term the 21st century as the “Asian century led by China and India”. Our government leaders also say so. But the Chinese commentators always say that the 21st century is the Chinese century. They never mention that India, Vietnam and Indonesia will also be the other partners in that century. Like Mohan Bhagwat of RSS, who talks of Akhand Bharat as his dream, China also talks of a Greater China. In fact, China is more comfortable with the right wing government in India, rather than the prospect of a liberal centre-left government led by the Congress and other non-BJP parties.

While keeping options open for dialogue with China under Xi Jinping, the Indian government has to be reconciled to the fact that China views India as a part of the US global strategy of containing China. This was not the position five years ago. The membership of QUAD and participation of India alongwith US and Australia in the Indian Ocean exercises have angered China and blinkered its view on India. India has to closely monitor the developments in the global politics and use its flexibility more in its diplomacy with the big nations.

India has to be prepared for a long haul in respect of its relationship with China. The purported “Amrit Kaal” of Narendra Modi is spread over the next 23 years to reach 2047; while China’s Amrit Kaal covers the next 25 years till 2049. The march will be on parallel lines for the two biggest populated countries of the world. China, a monolithic political system and India, a thriving chaos of democracy. The last congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022 and the latest National People’s Congress maintain the Chinese position of seeing India as emerging rival economic power. (IPA Service)