No doubt, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF) has had a head-start with the Front finalizing the selection of candidates well ahead of the Opposition parties. The LDF is brimming with confidence, especially in the wake of the historic Supreme Court verdict in the electoral bonds case. The judgment has come as a tremendous boost for the LDF as it was on a petition filed by the CPI(M) that the apex court came out with an order that has battered the BJP. The victory is particularly sweet as the CPI(M) and the CPI are the only parties which have not bought electoral bonds. That has enabled the LDF to occupy, deservingly, the moral high ground in the electoral battle.

The LDF got off to a flying start with early selection of candidates. The CPI(M) is contesting 15 seats, the CPI four and the Kerala Congress(M), their ally, one seat. And in a radical break with the past, the CPI(M) has fielded candidates with a sole criterion: winnability. The list is a judicious blend of experience and youth. The class and community formula has been dispensed with this time around. Among the veterans the CPI(M) has fielded are minister K Radhakrishnan a candidate with a clean image, former finance minister Thomas Isaac, former health minister K K Shailaja. The young candidates are KJ Shine in Ernakulam, a councillor of Paravur municipality. The other youngster is Vaseef who is contesting from the IUML stronghold of Malappuram. Another feature of the CPI(M) list is the presence in the race of three district secretaries : Attingal, Kannur and Kasaragod. They have been chosen for their known organizational skills and popularity.

Likewise, the CPI has also fielded formidable candidates. Veteran Pannian Ravindran is trying his luck from Thiruvananthapuram while senior leader Annie Raja is taking on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad. Annie Raja is already causing concern in the Congress camp with her campaign blitzkrieg. Similarly, Pannian is giving both Shashi Tharoor of the Congress and Rajiv Chandrashekhar of the BJP in Kerala capital campaign sleepless nights.

Another plus point for the LDF is the front’s impressive show in a few Local self-government elections held recently. In the election, the LDF managed to double its strength from five to 10. The Front also wrested two seats from the BJP and three from the Congress. As for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the front’s strength came down to 10 from 13. The Congress lost three seats to the CPI(M) and one to an LDF-backed Independent. The CPI wrested one seat from the BJP. The good show demolishes the opposition’s misinformation propaganda and campaign of calumny against the LDF.

The LDF campaign is being led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury and his CPI counterpart D Raja, among others. Pinarayi’s campaign for CPI candidate Annie Raja in Wayanad has energized the LDF camp, sending a shiver down the spine of Congress leaders and party candidate Rahul Gandhi.

In glaring contrast, there is gloom in the Congress camp. The party is badly divided. At a time when the party-led UDF should be presenting a picture of unity, the front is marred by inter-party strife and intra-party bickering, especially in the Congress. Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee chief K. Sudhakaran and leader of the opposition V D Satheesan are openly fighting with each other. In a particularly shocking incident, Sudhakaran was seen using an expletive to voice his ire at the absence of Satheesan at a public meeting. The incident highlights the extent of the rift in party.

It is this unseemly tussle which has prompted the Party high command to name veteran Ramesh Chennithala as the chief of the campaign committee in Kerala. The decision shows the lack of faith in Sudhakaran and Satheesan. The high command obviously believes that the duo are in no position to deliver. Hence the prominence given to Chennithala.

Another minus point for the Congress is the open reluctance of many sitting MPs to contest. This has strengthened the growing perception that the Congress simply does not have the stomach for a direct fight with the BJP. Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Wayanad against CPI candidate Annie Raja has also sent a wrong message, giving the BJP a chance to exploit the decision. Rahul could have – and should have - contested from a safe seat either in Tamil Nadu or Telangana. The ill-thought-out decision to stick to Wayanad has left a trail of bitterness which does not bode well for the INDIA bloc.

The Congress has also been rattled by corruption charges against VD Satheesan and Congress leader Mathew Kuzhalnadan. Nilambur MLA P V Anwar has accused Satheesan of taking a bribe of Rs 150 crore from IT companies outside the State to sabotage the SilverLine project. Mathew is under a cloud following allegations that he is in occupation of government land in violation of rules. As if all this was not enough, senior party leader and former minister K. Babu has had the mortification of seeing attachment of his property. This has embarrassed the UDF and the Congress beyond mention. The property attachment has been done under the provisions of Prevention of Money Laundering Act(PMLA) on January 25 for amassing disproportionate assets.

Last but not the least, the Congress is under heavy fire for its failure to react strongly against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Top Congress leaders including Rahul Gandhi, have yet to react to the infamous act. This has not gone down well with the electorate of Kerala. The voters in the State also frown upon the Congress practising soft Hindutva, which goes against the grain of party ideology. No less damaging is the perception that voting for Congress candidates would be a disaster as there is no guarantee that they won’t defect to the BJP, post-poll. Already many Congress leaders from the State have made a beeline to the BJP. The latest to junk the Congress was Padmaja Venugopal, daughter of Congress patriarch late K. Karunakaran. The LDF propaganda that Congress candidates would shift their allegiance to the BJP after the elections is finding greater acceptance.

As for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA), the picture is anything but rosy. True, Prime Minister Modi is making a determined attempt to boost the party’s fortunes in the State. He has already made four trips to the State. But the ground realities tell a different tale. The BJP’s efforts to woo the Christian voters has come a cropper. There is strong resentment in the Christian community against the Modi Government’s silence on Manipur killings. The Latin Christian community’s mouth piece Suprabhatam even wrote a stinging editorial against the BJP Government at the Centre. Moreover, the BJP’s only major ally, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) is anything but happy about the party’s domineering attitude. True BDJS candidates are in the race in alliance with the BJP. But there is visible anger against the shabby treatment being meted out to the BDJS.

At the end of the day, one thing can be predicted safely. The Congress is in no position to repeat its 2019 show of winning 19 seats from the State. The buoyant LDF is pulling out all stops to worst the Congress. And, if significant straws in the wind are anything to go by, the LDF is set to win at least 10 seats this time around. (IPA Service)