The post-poll situation does not appear to be dismal for the anti-BJP INDIA coalition as Trinamool Congress is yet to walk out of this alliance. While the BJP appears to be a house divided in West Bengal given the squabbles over its list of candidates, on the other hand the Congress and the Left do not seem to enjoy a broad based support to reduce BJP's tally of seats and displace the saffron camp from its perch of principal Opposition party.

Disappointment was writ large among some of the BJP candidates about the constituencies allotted to them. While some of them made little effort to conceal it, resentment of supporters was manifest when a nominee was not in keeping with their choice.

Realising that time is of essence, nominees of both TMC and BJP have hit the campaign trail running. Doljatra, the festival of colours provided them with an opportunity to meet their supporters and opponents in an atmosphere of bonhomie which would have been cosmetic on a routine campaign day.

But therein lies the rub as some chose to express their resentment by letting go this opportunity thereby losing a chance to closely interact with the voters. Saffron camp's candidate for Kolkata (South) Debasree Chowdhury was conspicuous by her absence even as the sitting TMC MP Mala Roy exchanged colours with some children of her constituency which TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee once represented.

If it showed Chowdhury's disappointment at not being given renomination from Raigunj, it was lost on the voters. A Lok Sabha poll candidate of BJP choosing to stay away from them conveyed a wrong message in a TMC bastion. Chowdhury is a new comer in South Kolkata, the most elite constituency in Bengal. BJP’s local workers are dismayed that the Party once again failed to put up a strong candidate in this constituency.

Former state party chief Dilip Ghosh put up a brave face at not being given renomination from Medinipur which he represented. Ghosh has been fielded from Bardhaman-Durgapur.

Party legislator, Agnimitra Paul has replaced Ghosh as the party nominee at Lok Sabha polls from Medinipur constituency. A leading fashion designer, Paul has emerged as a prominent figure in state BJP but she has never been a leader at par with Ghosh who has allegedly been shifted in a fallout of intra-party squabble. Ghosh as the state party president worked in 2019 Lok Sabha polls hard in getting 18 seats to the BJP as against TMC’s 22. The veteran RSS pracharak feels led down as the present list of Lok Sabha members was sponsored by his rival Suvendu Adhikari who is close to Amit Shah.

Rekha Patra who was one of the most prominent faces of Sandeshkhali agitation which has put the TMC on a back foot is the BJP candidate from Basirhat. But she seems to be on thin ice given the agitation of some of the local supporters against her candidature. BJP locals are angry that the candidate has no political experience and she is no match to the veteran Haji Nurul of TMC who belongs to the constituency and has been working in the area for long.

Sensing a groundswell of resentment against the ruling dispensation, the TMC has replaced the present film star MP Nusrat Jahan with Haji Nurul who had first won this seat as the party nominee. But resentment of some of the BJP supporters against Patra raised a question mark about her chance of her winning provided to her by the charges of land grabbing and assault on women at Sandeshkhali allegedly by TMC strongman Sheikh Shahjahan.

Fielding Arjun Singh from Barrackpore as BJP candidate has turned out to be a humbling choice for the saffron camp leadership. Singh having won as a BJP nominee in 2019 Lok Sabha elections later switched loyalty to Trinamool Congress.

Identified as a trouble maker in Barrackpore by TMC dispensation, he returned to the saffron camp after Partha Bhoumik known to be close to Abhishek Banerjee was declared to be the party nominee from Barrackpore. Given the change in the demography of Barrackpore over the years, the BJP leadership banked on real politic when naming a turncoat as it's nominee

Many in the state BJP are surprised at the candidate of Diamond Harbour remaining unannounced. The delay in the announcement of candidate of Diamond Harbour against Abhishek Banerjee, sitting MP and TMC's national general secretary clearly sends a message of diffidence on the part of saffron camp.

After all, Abhijit Ganguli on his resignation as a judge of Calcutta High Court and joining BJP had volunteered to contest from Diamond Harbour. Ganguli has been made the candidate from Tamluk.

But no saffron camp nominee has been announced against Banerjee yet. It raises a question whether the BJP lacks a candidate of sufficient political weightage to take on TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee's nephew or is on the lookout for a scapegoat to give him a walkover as part of an earlier arrangement as alleged by the Congress and the Left Front.

The choice of "Rajmata" Amrita Roy from Krishnanagar Lok Sabha has come as a surprise to many BJP supporters. Despite the saffron camp's penchant for royalty, its supporters are questioning the wisdom of putting a political lightweight against the expelled TMC MP Mahua Moitra against whom the saffron camp went hammer and rings on the ,"cash for questions" issue

In the fierce contest between TMC and the BJP, the Left-Congress alliance has been sandwitched. State Congress chief Adhir Chowdhury is being opposed by the star TMC candidate Yusuf Pathan. Pathan has started his campaigning but it will be tough to dethrone five time Congress Lok Sabha member from Berhampore who is quite popular and is known as the Robinhood in his constituency.

The Left Front and the Congress have still to sort out differences in at least four seats. There is a possibility of a friendly contest between the two INDIA partners if the talks on these disputed seats finally fail. CPI(M) state secretary Mohammad Selim is contesting from Murshidabad constituency and the candidate from adjoining constituency Adhir Chowdhury is giving him full support. In fact, the CPI(M) has been very sober this time in dealing with the Congress in alliance talks. The Left workers are campaigning for the Congress candidates of the alliance list.

The problem for the INDIA alliance is that the CPI(M) which rued over Bengal for 34 years, has still not been able to stop the erosion of its base while the Congress support base is vey limited in the state, confined to only two districts. Both TMC and BJP are having large number of cadres, massive financial resources and highly powerful social media presence. The Left has started the process but it is lagging in a big way compared to its two main opponents. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the battle seems to be limited to the TMC and the BJP with the Left-Congress alliance offering some challenge in a few seats in North Bengal.

Though the BJP high command has talked of winning 35 seats out of the total of 42- 17 more than the 2019 tally of 18, the internal assessment of the BJP puts the figure from 9 to 13. Some surveys have even put the figure ranging between 7 and 11. As regards TMC, its internal assessment says that The Party is sure of 30 sets and in other twelve, it all depends on last minute swing. However, Abhishek Banerjee’s estimate based on I-Pack’s analysis has put the figure between 32 and 35. June 4 will reveal whom voters from Bengal have chosen. (IPA Service)