Trump is disliked for a lot of well known reasons. A pathological liar, facing impeachment twice , shameless denier of the last presidential election result , and having indicted in 91 counts of felony involving 4 major federal and state criminal cases . It is a wonder how he could still garner the support of 80% of the Republican loyalists. On the other hand, Joe Biden is not liked mostly for his age and physical health issues, he is too old to be able to do his job, he will be 86 years till the end of his presidency if he is elected again. Further, he is not liked for his policy adopted on Israel-Gaza war and also for his failure to control and curb the inflation. He is too timid and uninspiring.

Yet both clinched their parties primary nominations .Biden who has no serious competition in his party reached the required 1968 delegates threshold, Trump, while his last rival Nikky Haley withdrew from the race, also passed the mark of 1215 delegates needed.

In a statement, Biden celebrated the nomination while casting Trump as a serious threat to democracy. Trump, Biden said - ‘is running a campaign of resentment, revenge, and retribution that threatens the very idea of America’, while Trump called his nomination ‘a great day of victory’. Trump grudges in the Truth Social ‘we are becoming a communist country'.

Despite their rough talks, the road ahead will not be easy for either of the nominees. Trump is facing 91 felony counts in 4 criminal cases, he has a strong chance of being convicted in any or all of them. He is also facing increasingly pointed questions about his policy plans and relationship with some of the most dangerous dictators of the world. Though Trump swept and consolidated his support among the Republican party, he still has roughly 20% of the Republican voters sceptic about him .Trump won the MAGA primary but not all of the moderate Republicans who supported Nikky Halley. While Biden garnered more than 90% support among his Democratic party. Trump evokes more anger and fear among Democratic voters than Biden does among Republican voters .But both men are unpopular .Their election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option.

Unlike in 2020, when Biden was favoured over Trump for the entirety of the campaign, he faces a rougher round this time around.” Biden starts in a clear deficit in nearly every battleground states and also nationally “said Chris Kofinis, a very well known Democratic strategist of presidential elections. The strategy Democrats have deployed to weaken Trump is simply not working and Democrats should be aware that Trump has a real chance of retaking the White House. It is not just that Biden is in worse shape against his general election opponent than almost any incumbent in the past 75 years save Trump in 2020. It is a lead of any margin for Trump during the 2020 election, either nationally or in strategic states.

Just look at the polls that were released last week. Surveys from New York Times/ Siena College, CNBC/You Gov, FOx News/Wall Street Journal all gave Trump a higher percentage of the vote than Biden by margins ranging from 2 to 4 points .Only KFT and recently Bloomberg has Biden scoring 3 points higher than Trump. Biden is trailing by 5 points or more in the recent polling in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. No Democratic president has lost Nevada since 2004.

Though Biden loses all these states, he can still win if he carries every other contest he did in 2020 – that would help him to finish 270 –268 in electoral votes .The problem for Biden is Michigan, where he is down by 4 points. There is a solid vote bank of Arabs, Palestinians and Muslims who strongly resent Biden’s roll in the Israel–Gaza war. Not only the progressives, the Democratic Party in general is in doubt over Biden’s pro - active position on Israel. And many of the younger supporters may not cast their vote this time over this issue.

Americans say the imminent problems facing the country are the economy, particularly inflation and immigration. Trump is considerably being trusted more than Biden on both issues. Other issues like abortion, environment, social security ,health care are left behind astonishingly, though Democrats hope ultimately those issues will get steam as election date approaches and the inflation, during the remaining seven months will gradually come down to a reasonable level.

Donald Trump’s campaign is quietly confident. The electoral college system means the White House will ultimately turn on a few thousand voters in a handful undecided states of political lines. Right now Trump has the polling advantage there. Polls look good for Trump across 7 key battle ground states, he leads in all but one. In four of them his lead is more than 5 points. But even these 4 states would not be enough for Trump to win, it could in fact, lead to a draw if Biden won the other three.

Different polls show Donald Trump making unprecedented inroads among Black and Hispanic voters, specially men, mostly on the issue of rising price and inflation. The presumptive GOP nominee is now benefiting from both groups politically, he is energizing his base of white social conservatives with incendiary ideas such as the largest deportation drive against undocumented immigrants in American history and attracting historic numbers of non-white voters on other issues, principally the economy and inflation. Most of the polls found that Trump winning 28% of Black and 45% 0f Hispanic voters.

Biden’s position will look much better if Democrats can push Trump off that tight rope by raising concerns among minority communities about Trump’s most militant proposals – like his claim that undocumented immigrants are ‘poisoning the blood of our country ‘.and his proposals to prohibit schools from discussing ‘Critical Race History ‘and implement the ‘stop and frisk ‘tactics to target young Black men. For all these reasons and more, Cornell Belcher, a Democratic poll star, approached Barack Obama on reaching Black voters on these issues .Barack Obama himself is appearing indirectly on campaign trail for Biden recently .The supreme irony taking shape is that Trump’s fate in 2024 election may turn on whether he can hold, for 7 more months, more support among Black and Hispanic voters; to be detrimental enough for the reelection of Joe Biden. The whole situation hinges on some kind of surreal uncertainty at this moment. (IPA Service)