Thrissur first. There are several factors going right for Sunil Kumar, who is extremely popular in the constituency. A familiar face in Thrissur and neighbouring areas, Sunil had won from Thrissur Assembly in 2016 and from Kaipamangalam in 2011. He was an extremely efficient Agriculture Minister in the first Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) Government.

Sitting Congress MP from Thrissur T N Prathapan has been replaced by K. Muralidharan, son of late Congress patriarch and former chief minister K. Karunakaran. Murali was originally scheduled to contest from Vadakara, which he represented in the outgoing Lok Sabha. The dropping of Prathapan has left a trail of bitterness though the Congress camp is pretending as if everything is ok. It is not. There is deep resentment over the denial of candidature to Prathapan. And the anger is bound to reflect in the final voting pattern. As for Muralidharan, his record from Thrissur district is anything but good. He lost the assembly election from Wadakkanchery constituency. Reports say Murali has been brought in as Pratghapan was considered a weak candidate against the immensely popular Sunil Kumar.

Sunil Kumar has had a head-start as far as the election campaign is concerned. The LDF’s well-oiled organizational machinery is working with clockwork-like efficiency. Apart from Sunil Kumar’s personal popularity, there are other plus points for the CPI candidate in 2024 Lok Sabha polls..

The most important factor is the growing perception that voting for a Congress candidate will be a cardinal mistake as there is no guarantee that the winning Congress candidate will not cross over to the BJP, post-poll. And to Muralidharan’s chagrin, his sister Padmaja Venugopal has already left Congress to join the BJP. And the younger sister has embarrassed her brother no end by claiming that the stage is set for Murali’s entry to BJP. This cannot but prove beneficial for the CPI candidate.

As for the BJP, the party has fielded Malayalam cinema’s super star Suresh Gopi from Thrissur. BJP thinks that Thrissur is one of the constituencies the party is sure to win. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Suresh had polled an impressive 2,93,822 votes against the winning Congress candidate T N Prathapan who polled 4,15,089 votes. CPI’s Rajaji Thomas came second with a tally of 3,21,456 votes. BJP circles hope Suresh will succeed in increasing his vote share now. But their hopes are going to be belied.

There are a number of reasons why Suresh won’t get past the winning post. First and foremost, the BJP’s Christian outreach programme has come a cropper with the community leaders making no secret of their hostility to the party, especially after the Manipur killings and the Modi Government’s shocking failure to stop the killings. In fact. Suresh Gopi was rudely rebuffed when he went canvassing for votes. A Christian priest bluntly told him that he won’t get the Christian vote this time. Suresh was banking heavily on Christian votes, who form a sizable section of Thrissur votes, to win.

But if the mood of the community is anything to go by, he is in for a shock. In fact LDF circles say Suresh would fail to repeat his 2019 performance this time and would finish a poor third. As if all this is not enough, Suresh has to stand trial in a case in which he allegedly tried to evade tax. His petition for discharge in the case has been rejected and he would have to face trial sometime in May. The blow could not have come at a worse time. No wonder, Sunil Kumar is sporting a broad smile these days.

Even the campaign for Suresh by Prime Minister Modi does not seem to have boosted his chances. True, Modi attracted a decent crowd. But his speech has failed to change the minds of the people of Thrissur in a decisive way. His presence at Suresh’s daughter’s weddings has not proved helpful either.

The CPI candidate is in a strong position also because of the bold and clear stand of the LDF on issues like Citizenship Amendment Act(CAA), electoral bond case and strong opposition to the Congress playing the soft Hindutva card. The Congress’s wishy washy stand on these issues has alienated a sizable section of Muslim voters who would otherwise have voted for the Congress candidate. This time, they are in a mood to back the LDF candidate in view of their strong stand on these sensitive issues.

Another reason why Sunil chance is positive is the absence of the Rahul factor this time. In 2019, there was a widespread belief that the Congress would win the LS polls and Rahul would become the PM. That is no more there in this election.

Thrissur constituency is composed of six assembly seats: Ollur, Puthukkad, Manalur, Guruvayur, Nattika and Irinjalakkuda. It has a voter strength of 12, 93, 744.

Mavelikkara is a traditional Congress stronghold. Congress candidate Kodikkunnil Suresh has been winning from Mavelikkara since 2009.

But there has been a change in the political situation since the 2019 LS elections. Suresh did not want to contest this time. But he had to as the party insisted on his candidature. His performance as an MP has been anything but impressive.

Just one instance would prove his un popularity. A voter made a telling comment when asked for his opinion on Suresh’s chances. His cryptic comment: the MP has not been able to repair even the road leading to his house! How can he ensure the development of Mavelikkara?

In the last election, CPI candidate Chittayam Gopakumar gave him a tough fight. Chittayam lost only by 60,000 votes. Suresh’s non-performance and the LDF Government’s bold stand on issues like CAA, electoral bonds and fight against communalism and dictatorship has endeared the CPI candidate to the people. This time around, the CPI has put up a young and energetic CA Arun Kumar. Arun is an All India Youth Federation leader and was additional private secretary to Agriculture Minister P. Prasad. A big slice of Mavelikkara voters feel it is time for a young MP to represent the constituency. In view of this prevailing sentiment, Mavelikkara is set to witness an engrossing battle, and, in all probability, an upset victory for Arun.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has fielded Congress defector Baiju Kalassala, who is contesting under the banner of Bharat Dharma Jana Sena(BDJS), an ally of BJP. The party hopes it would be able to improve upon its impressive show in 2019 polls, when it increased its vote from 79,743 to 1,33,546 votes.

The LDF is keen on wresting the seat, which it last won in 2004. The constituency is spread over three districts of Alappuzha, Kottayam and Kollam. The seven assembly seats are: Changanassery (Kottayam district), Kuttanad, Mavelikkara and Chengannur (Alappuzha district) and Kunnathur, Pathanapuram and Kottarakkara (Kollam district). It became a Scheduled Caste reserved seat following the dissolution of Adoor Lok Sabha constituency.

A major factor in LDF’s favour is the fact that the front won all the seven constituencies in the 2021 assembly polls. (IPA Service)