Tharoor, who won in 2009, 2014 and 2019, had taken his victory for granted. But Pannian has upset his calculations. The anti-Left media would have us believe that the battle in the Kerala capital is between Tharoor and Rajeev. That is no surprise. The pro-Opposition media has always tried to run down Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidates. Pannian is no exception.

The LDF has pulled out all the stops to wrest the constituency after 15 years. Raveendran had won it for the LDF in a by-election in 2005. The Opposition has realized, albeit a bit belatedly, that Pannian is no pushover. His record as an MP is fondly remembered by the people of the constituency. His success in getting a slew of projects for Thiruvananthapuram cannot be ignored. He managed to get Rs 245 crore for the second phase of development of Thiruvananthapuram international airport and Rs 255 crore for the third phase. Likewise, the aero bridge at Chakka and the Rs 90-crore hangar unit also became a reality thanks to Pannian’s efforts.

The CPI stalwart also succeeded in ensuring as many as 11 trains for the state . He also made effective intervention to bring BrahMos and the RPF’s central school to the Kerala capital. It was again Pannian who was instrumental in getting the Union Government to take over the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology. It is on the basis of this sterling performance that the immensely popular Comrade Pannian is seeking a second term after 15 years. His credentials are impeccable and his image clean. And, another plus point in his favour is the fact that, except Kovalam assembly constituency, the LDF secured a good lead in the other six assembly constituencies that make up the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat.

As for Tharoor, it is no more a cakewalk. His record during the last 15 years is also nothing to write home about. And Shashi is facing the allegation that he is taking the credit for the projects which have become a reality because of the LDF’s efforts. Tharoor is also facing a rebel problem. A Youth Congress leader who is unhappy with the shabby treatment being meted out to it has entered the fray to the chagrin of Tharoor. His presence is bound to cut into Tharoor’s vote base.

Also, in all previous elections, Tharoor had managed to get the lion’s share of the Christian votes. That is no more the case. The Christian voters are unhappy about Tharoor’s stand on their plight in the wake of the construction of Vizhinjam port. Tharoor is also crippled by the pusillanimous stand of the Congress on issues like Citizenship Amendment Act, electoral bonds and the Congress’s flirting with soft Hindutva.

As far as Rajeev Chandrasekhar is concerned, he is in a bad shape. Rajiv’s biggest handicap is that he is a total stranger in the constituency and his outsider image. His lack of experience is showing in his campaign. On many an occasion, Rajiv finds himself in an embarrassing position while answering queries from the media personnel. He does not enjoy the full backing of the BJP’s rank and file either. Kummanam Rajasekharan, who was also in the race for the constituency, would have been a better choice for the BJP. To his dismay, all the pre-poll surveys have predicted that Rajiv would end up a poor third.

At the end of the day, it would not be a surprise if Pannian Raveendran springs a surprise both on Tharoor and Rajeev. And the Thiruvananthapuram constituency deserves an MP of Pannian’s stature to represent it. A man who is fearless and would enthusiastically take up the causes of the poor and downtrodden and boldly take on the communal forces led by the BJP-RSS combine. And greater support from the minorities, and the Congress’s alienation from the minorities could help the CPI candidate to romp home the winner.

In the 2019 election, Tharoor polled 416,131 votes against Kummanam Rajasekharan’s 316,142 and CPI’s C Divakaran polled 2,58, 556 votes.

Wayanad has hogged national headlines because of the candidature of Rahul Gandhi who is seeking a second term from the constituency. The Congress thinks Rahul would easily win again with a thumping majority. But there has been a seachange since the 2019 poll in which Rahul won with a majority of over four lakhs. Can he repeat the same performance? Doubtful. There are several reasons why he may not.

First and foremost, the relations between the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League(IUML) have come under severe strain. Congress’s refusal to give a third Lok Sabha seat to IUML has caused deep resentment in that party. Also, the failure of the Congress to take a categorical stand on the CAA issue and playing of the soft Hindutva card have also angered the Congress ally. A notable feature of Rahul’s rally this time was the absence of IUML’s green flags and Congress flags! The reason: Rahul did not want BJP to cash in on that count as it did in 2019.The BJP had claimed that the Rahul rally then was flooded with Pakistan’s flags!

Rahul’s refusal to contest against a BJP candidate in North India has also come in for severe criticism from the Left parties. They said – rightly so – that his contest against the CPI candidate in Wayanad has sent a wrong message, which the BJP would exploit to the full. Rahul may manage to win. But it would be with a much reduced majority. This is what Congress leaders themselves say.

As for CPI candidate Annie Raja, her presence has electrified the LDF campaign. Annie is attracting good crowds and her meetings are well attended. The enthusiasm of the people is visible. The campaign received a massive boost with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself campaigning for her in the constituency.

A notable feature of her campaign is that it is not LDF cadres alone who are campaigning for her. A Kuki community activist in Manipur, Glady Vaiphei Hunjan and many victims of police brutality which Sathyamangalam forests in Tamil Nadu saw during the hunt for bandit Veerappan are actively canvassing votes for Annie. The campaign is focusing on her all India image and her courageous fights on behalf of the poor and downtrodden. The Kuki activist was effusive in her praise for Annie and the people of Kerala for their support during the Manipur riots. Similarly, many victims of the brutality of the task force entrusted to nab Veerappan are also campaigning for Annie. Annie helped them with food and clothes besides supporting their agitation for justice.

Observers of the Wayanad say a victory for Annie is impossible. But, for all you know, an upset victory for Annie cannot be ruled out altogether. The tide is clearly in favour of the LDF and this could go a long way in changing the situation in Annie’s favour. In an election from Wayanad in the past, Satyan Mokeri of the CPI had came tantalizingly close to upsetting the Congress candidate MI Shahnavas. Satyan lost by a mere 20,000 votes. He had managed to reduce Shahnavas’s majority from over one lakh in the earlier poll. Nothing can be ruled out in electoral politics.

An interesting feature this time is the presence of BJP state president K. Surendran’ in Wayanad fray. It is a surprise considering that the party’s performance in previous elections has been dismal. In 2019, the BJP secured only 7.24 per cent votes in Wayanad when Rahul won with a record margin of 431,770 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top BJP leaders are expected to liven up Surendran’s campaign in the days to come. But BJP’s efforts to make it a three-cornered contest are unlikely to succeed. The BJP hopes that the Christian vote won’t go entirely to the Congress and the LDF. A big slice is likely to favour the BJP. But that is highly unlikely. The Christian community is extremely angry with the Modi Government for its failure to act in Manipur where Christians bore the brunt of violence.

In the final analysis, it can be safely predicted that the CPI is set to win the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat. Mavelikkara is also likely to witness an upset CPI victory . In Thiruvananthapuram and Wayanad, the CPI stalwarts are making their powerful opponents sweat a lot. (IPA Service)