Before the BSP's latest decision, it was one of the Congress's foremost adversaries. Although the BSP has cohabited with both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP, it has never been close to the Congress. Instead, it had taken umbrage at Rahul Gandhi's attempts to woo the Dalits and tried to hinder development projects in the Nehru-Gandhi family's pocket boroughs like Rae Bareli and Amethi.

The relations between the two parties were at their lowest ebb just before the parliamentary polls when the BSP was courted by the Left as virtually the centre-piece of its Third Front calculations. This was also the time when Mayawati openly voiced her prime ministerial aspirations. But the wheels may have started going into reverse gear after the Congress's unexpectedly good performance in the polls and the BSP's unsatisfactory showing.

It seems to have taken a year since then for Mayawati to realize that her Dalit-Brahmin rainbow coalition - hathi nahin Ganesh hai - was not as much of a winner as she had thought. Rahul Gandhi's focussed campaign to bring the Dalits and Muslims back into the Congress fold may have also unnerved her. And, above all, she probably needed a respite from the cases against her pending in the Supreme Court.

Had it been only a question of the Congress backing off from challenging her in U.P. while she stood by it at the centre, the storyline would have been simple. But fresh complications have arisen with the other player in the state, the Samajwadi Party, also signalling that it, too, wants to be close to the Congress. As in the case of the BSP, the Samajwadi Party's relationship with the Congress has been an uneasy one. Although the two were allies in the state when Mulayam Singh Yadav was the chief minister, the Samajwadi Party was always seen to be close to the Left.

It was only on the eve of last year's Lok Sabha debate on the nuclear deal that the Samajwadi Party ditched the communists and switched its loyalty to the Congress. Since then, the two have been together even if the failure of an electoral alliance between them before the parliamentary polls introduced an element of strain in their ties. However, the Congress's success in the elections ensured that the Samajwadi Party would not drift too far away from UPA II.

In a way, this proximity has continued although the Congress's decision to push the women's reservations bill through the Rajya Sabha did cause a rupture between the Mandal trio of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Sharad Yadav. Now, the decision of Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad to dissociate themselves from the Left on the question of the nuclear liability bill means that the Congress has come close again to the Samajwadi Party and the RJD.

Yet, the Congress knows that one cannot be friendly with both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party in U.P. As in Tamil Nadu, where one has to choose either the DMK or the AIADMK, in UP, too, an understanding with both the party of the Yadavs and the party of the Dalits is out of the question.

All three will have to think hard, therefore, about their new tactics. Only one thing is clear at the moment. Rahul Gandhi will have to put his pro-Dalit initiatives on hold. The problem with such a retreat is that a political move of this nature where an entire community is being wooed cannot be an on-again, off-again affair. If Rahul Gandhi backs off now and stops spending nights in Dalit homes, he will not be able to revive his efforts at a later stage, for it will then be seen as a political manoeuvre and not a genuine move to win hearts and minds.

The Congress, as a party, is not unused to such cynicism. But for Rahul to be tainted with the tar of expediency will have long-term consequences. The Congress will also have to consider how long it will be able to carry on with its balancing act of being friendly with both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. On their part, the dwindling influence of these two parties will force them to focus on their core caste-based constituencies, thereby aggravating casteist sentiments. How the Congress will navigate such choppy waters will be another point of interest, especially since the BJP will try to exploit the situation to regain its foothold among the upper castes. (IPA Service)