Today, with less than ten days to the general election 2024, there is the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and the Mahayuti, two alliances fighting for the 48 seats Maharashtra contributes to the Lok Sabha. Neither alliance is free of problems. The Maha Vikas Aghadi isn’t a walkover and the Mahayuthi wouldn’t be crushed easily. The outlook doesn’t look good for PM Modi’s “abkibaar 400 paar”.

The state itself is in “shambles”. Rural Maharashtra is in the grips of drought-like conditions. Water shortage has dried up most cities. Damage was done to both kharif and rabi crops by unseasonal rains and hailstorms. Amidst this, the Congress party is comparing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the unfinished Shivaji Maharaj statue in the Arabian Sea. Modi’s governance style is being compared to the truncated statue.

And Modi’s history of abandoning people, and projects, isn’t helping the Mahayuti. Actually, both alliances are at sea, not just Shivaji Maharaj’s statue. Hailstorms, unseasonal rains and now prospects of a bleak poll. The electoral races will be tight. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is beset with defections. From the Congress in particular. And the Shiv Sena (UBT) isn’t helping any by taking unilateral decisions that affect the MVA as a whole. The whole project of seat-sharing has taken a hit because of the UBT’s intransigence.

It is a five-phase general election in Maharashtra. There are 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to the 80 of Uttar Pradesh. It will be a close contest between two coalitions – the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Both coalitions are fighting internal problems, mostly linked to seat-sharing and where negotiations have failed in sorting out differences.

Lead parties BJP and Congress are struggling to find solutions, the faction-fighting in the two alliances is poisonous. Take the Mahayuti for instance. Union Home Minister Amit Shah met and held talks with Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and NCP’s Ajit Pawar. The BJP will contest 30-34 seats; leaving 10-14 seats for the Shiv Sena and 4 seats for the NCP of Ajit Pawar. The Republican Party of India was told to take a hike. But the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray has a chance.

To date, BJP has named candidates for 24 seats but fielding Navneet Rana from Amravati has been disputed. Another BJP candidate who didn’t find acceptance with allies is actor Govinda who defected from the Congress recently and has been named BJP candidate from Mumbai North-West. Shinde’s Shiv Sena is also asking for Nashik, Sindhudurg and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar seats. Negotiations are underway.

There is also the fight between Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Sharad Pawar’s NCP over the family bastion of Baramati, from where Ajit Pawar has fielded his wife Sunetra against sitting MP and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, who happens to be President of NCP of Sharad Pawar.

Compared to troubles plaguing Mahayuti, those keeping MVA embroiled are bigger and nastier. For one, the MVA failed to accommodate the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi of Prakash Ambedkar. MVA has split up 44 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. Shiv Sena (UBT) got 19 seats, Congress 16 seats and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) nine seats. The four disputed seats are Mumbai South-Central, Mumbai North-West, Bhiwandi and Sangli.

Earlier UBT Sena wanted all 23 seats it fought for in the 2019 general election as a BJP ally. Uddhav Thackeray has been taking unilateral decisions leading to Congress leaders who were denied tickets defecting to the BJP. Thackeray’s unilateral decisions couldn’t have been in a more vitiated atmosphere. Top Congress leaders who quit the Congress or defected to the BJP include Ashok Chavan, Milind Deora and Sanjay Nirupam. However, the three partners finally announced their complete agreement on seat division Tuesday .

So, while the BJP and the Shiv Sena of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde have differences over seat and power-sharing, the NCP and the BJP have always fought against each other and this newfound friendship is alien to both parties. It is the same between the Congress and the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Shiv Sena, both of them ideological rivals turned allies finding it difficult to meet common ground.

The MVA constituents Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) struck a deal, as per which UBT will contest on 21 of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress will contest on 17 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP will fight from 10 Maharashtra parliamentary constituencies. Important thing is, the Congress was denied Sangli, Mumbai South Central and Bhiwandi seats for which the whole fight was about. But the Congress got the Mumbai-North seat to contest. The Congress and the UBT Sena had been at odds with each other after UBT Sena head Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray went to Sangli and announced the name of UBT candidate Chandrahar Patil. (IPA Service)