One of the most prestigious battles is being fought in Vadakara. The CPI(M) lost it to the Congress in the 2019 LS poll. Congress candidate K. Muralidharan defeated CPI(M)’s P. Jayarajan by a margin of over 80,000 votes. The BJP candidate polled 80,128 votes.

But there has been a sea-change in the political scenario since 2019. Determined to wrest the seat from Congress, CPI(M) has fielded former health minister K. K. Shailaja from the constituency. In the initial stages it appeared as though Congress candidate Shafi Partambil, who has been shifted from Palakkad, will put up a spirited fight. But Shilaja’s impressive performance as health minister, especially the stellar role she played in combating Covid 19, has endeared her to the people of Vadakara. Not only Vadakara, the whole state is indebted to her for bravely battling against the pandemic and containing it. In the process, she earned international acclaim.

Unnerved by her growing popularity, the Congress has resorted to dirty tactics by unleashing an obscene propaganda against her. The gravity of the Congress offence can be gauged from the fact that Shailaja has complained to the Election Commission. Even Opposition MLAs like Uma Thomas of the Congress and KK Rema of the Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP) were constrained to condemn the cyber attack. The vituperative campaign against Shailaja has also touched off a wave of indignation against the Opposition Congress and BJP in the constituency. There is a growing perception that her victory is a foregone conclusion. The only point of interest is the extent of her majority. It may be mentioned that Shailaja had the biggest majority in the 2021 assembly elections. Keen observers of the election scene predict a massive win for her once again.

Alathur is a traditional stronghold of the CPI(M), Alathur also witnessed the party losing the seat to the Congress in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Congress candidate Ramya Haridas defeated CPI(M)’s P. K. Biju by a margin of over 1,58,000 votes. The massive win of UDF candidates in 2019 was attributed to the Sabarimala factor and the Rahul will become the PM campaign. Both factors are no more there.

The CPI(M) has fielded minister K. Radhakrishnan from Alathur. A candidate with impeccable credentials, Radhakrishnan is way ahead on the campaign trail. He is considered one of the best ministers in the Pinarayi Cabinet.

As for, Ramya, who sang her way to the hearts of Alathur voters in 2019, she has nothing to show by way of her performance. Alathur continues to be bedevilled by the problems plaguing the constituency. The angry voters are no longer in a mood to dance to her tune. In fact, they are making much song and dance about her poor show as an MP.

Add to this the firm and bold stand taken by the LDF on various issues, which has altered the picture completely. The Pinarayi Government has said that it would not implement the Citizenship Amendment Act(CAA) in the State. This has greatly assuaged the feeling of anxiety in the minds of the minorities, especially Muslims. In glaring contrast to this is the inexcusable failure of the Congress and its allies to make even a mention of the CAA in its manifesto.

Moreover, the growing perception that there is no guarantee the elected Congress MPs would not defect to the BJP camp has badly dented the Congress-led UDF’s image and credibility. Only left MPs would take up Kerala’s causes effectively in Parliament. The voters are greatly impressed by this LDF guarantee. And this would reflect in the voting pattern in a big way. And it is this visible enthusiasm of the Kerala voters which prompted the Chief Minister to claim a pro-LDF wave in the State.

Another factor favouring the CPI(M) candidate in the constituency is the fact that the CPI(M) led in all the seven assembly segments that make up the Alathur Lok Sabha seat. Alathur is as good as in the LDF pocket. The only point of interest: the victory margin.

Palakkad is another traditional Left stronghold, which the Congress wrested in 2019. The LDF has pulled out all the stops to win back the seat this time around. And it has fielded one of the party heavyweights A Vijayaraghavan from the constituency. Vijayaraghavan is extremely popular in Palakkad having represented it in 1989 elections by defeating Congress stalwart V S Vijayaraghavan, a three-time winner from the constituency.

A notable factor is that, while the Congress candidates won 18 seats with big majority, the party romped home the winner in Palakkad by the proverbial whisker. CPI(M) candidate M B Rajesh, currently a minister in the Pinarayi Cabinet, lost by a slender margin of 11,000 votes. Rajesh polled 3.876 lakh votes as against the winner V K Sreekandan who secured 3.99 lakh votes. A solid and well-orchestrated campaign has given the CPI(M) a clear edge in the constituency.

The BJP is also a force to reckon with in Palakkad. In 2019, Metroman E Sreedharan contested on a BJP ticket and gave a good account of himself. This time senior BJP leader C. Krishnakumar is in the race. Krishnakumar polled 2.185 lakh votes in 2019. The BJP , whose vote share has gone up from 3. 7 per cent in 1989 to 21.44 per cent in 2019 is hoping to give both the LDF and the UDF a run for their money. But an upset victory for the BJP is highly unlikely, mainly for two reasons. The party has angered the minorities with its aggressive anti-minority stance. Also the killing of and atrocities against Christians in Manipur has alienated the BJP from the community. Despite its ardent wooing, the Christians are in no mood to vote for the Hindutva party. Palakkad is set to send comrade A Vijayaraghavan to the Lok Sabha this time.

The stakes are high for both the LDF and the UDF in Alappuzha constituency, which elected the sole CPI(M) MP – A M Ariff - from Kerala in 2019.LokSabha polls. The CPI(M) has fielded sitting MP Ariff again, who is taking on Congress heavyweight KC Venugopal, a close aide of Rahul Gandhi. KC is no stranger to Alappuzha having won from here in 2009 and 2014.

But his exit from Rajasthan is a minus point for KC, who is currently a Rajya Sabha MP from Rajasthan. Unfortunately, the BJP wrested the seat from Congress in the assembly elections in December last year. And if KC wins from Alappuzha, he will have to relinquish the seat in the Upper House. And that would benefit the BJP. The LDF is exploiting this point against him with telling effect.

Ariff is seeking a second term on the basis of his strong performance in Parliament. While 19 UDF MPs – they were scared to raise their voice against the BJP - were mealy mouthed most of the time. Ariff made his presence felt with effective interventions. It is a neck and neck battle. (IPA Service)