Rajasthan is a key state of the country and of the Hindi heartland, where NDA had won all 25 seats – BJP 24 and its ally RLP 1 – defeating INC on all seats. RLP had won Nagaur seat, but it deserted the BJP after PM Narendra Modi brought three controversial farm laws in 2020, though these were unilaterally withdrawn by the prime minister. RLP feared backlash on account of farmer’s anger against the BJP and its allies. RLP is now part of INDIA bloc in a seat sharing arrangement it is contesting from the same Nagaur seat. This Lok Sabha Constituency polled in the first phase of election on April 19.

RLP’s prospect on this seat is bright and is well placed to defeat the rival BJP candidate. RLP had won this constituency in 2019 by defeating INC by a vote margin of 1,81,260 votes. Now both the parties are in INDIA bloc. If we try to quantify the RLP’s prospect, we have to look into the November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election. Out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies in this Lok Sabha constituency, 4 were won by IND, 1 was won by an independent with INC as runner up, and 1 was won by RLP itself. BJP had won only two Vidhan Sabha seats, and in one of them it bagged only 39.20 per cent of votes.

It is worth mentioning here that NDA had bagged 61.13 per cent of votes in 2019 Lok Sabha election in Rajasthan – BJP 59.07 per cent and RLP 2.06 per cent, while Congress had bagged only 34.59 per cent. BJP was riding on Pulwama wave at that time. There has been a great change in the last five years. The November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election showed that BJP’s share of votes declined to 41.70 per cent and RLP’s share of votes increased to 2.38 per cent. An additional faction is worth noting that Congress’s vote share also increased to 39.58 per cent. RLP has clear edge on the Nagaur seat.

Another INDIA bloc ally CPI(M) is contesting from Sikar. This constituency also polled in the first phase, and the election outcome on this seat may spring up surprise. CPI(M) candidate has an edge over the BJP candidate on this constituency. INC has emerged stronger in 5 out of 8 Vidhan Sabha constituency under this Lok Sabha seat, which it has won in recently in Vidhan Sabha election 2023. BJP had won only three seats, but it bagged only 42.30 and 41.28 per cent in two of them.

Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), another INDIA bloc ally, is contesting from Banswara Lok Sabha Constituency under seat sharing agreement with Congress. This constituency is going to poll in the second phase on April 26. It should be noted that BAP had won Chorasi Vidhan Sabha constituency in November 2023 state election and is still stronger than BJP in this seat which is one of the 8 Vidhan Sabha seats under Banswara Lok Sabha Constituency. Congress had won 5 Vidhan Sabha seats. BJP had won only two, in one it had bagged only 36.47 per cent of votes while in other only 38.58 per cent of votes.

Congress is contesting in 22 out of 25 Lok Sabha Constituencies. Altogether 12 Lok Sabha constituencies polled on April 19, but it is a matter of great frustration for BJP and PM Narendra Modi, that BJP seemed stronger than INDIA bloc candidates only on 4 seats – Bharatpur, Bikaner, Dausa, and Jaipur. Congress had an edge on 6 seats – Alwar, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaipur Rural, Jhunjhunu, and Karuli-Dholpur, while its allies RLP one 1, and CPI(M) on 1 seat .

Congress seemed to have an edge on the seats mentioned above on account of the party’s success in November 2023 on majority of Vidhan Sabha seats in the respective Lok Sabha constituencies. The party has still maintained its dominant position, and has actually become stronger now.

This prospect had disturbed the RSS-BJP clan including PM Modi, that they immediately intensified their campaign on communal Hindutva line in the election campaign for the second phase of election. It seemed working. A total of 13 Lok Sabha constituencies are going to polls in the second phase, and out of them, there are as many as 9 seats where BJP seems to have an upper hand against the INDIA bloc candidates. These nine seats are Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsaman, Bhilwara, and Jhalawar-Baran.

INDIA ally BAP has an edge on Banswara seat, but Congress candidates are pitted against BJP candidates on 3 seats – Tonk-Sawaimadhipur, Jalore, and Kota – in such a close contest that it is very difficult to even assess which party has an edge. Only two days are left for campaign and it is highly uncertain which party would ultimately establish an upper hand. (IPA Service)