In the first phase of election on April 19, 4 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar, 1 in Chhattisgarh, 6 in Madhya Pradesh, 12 in Rajasthan, and 8 in Uttar Pradesh polled. Out of these 31 seats, BJP seemed to have upper hand in only 12 seats - 1 seat in Chhattisgarh, 3 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 4 seats in Rajasthan, and 4 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

In the second phase of election scheduled on April 26, 5 Lok Sabha constituencies of Bihar, 3 in Chhattisgarh, 7 in Madhya Pradesh, 13 in Rajasthan, and 8 in Utter Pradesh are going to poll. These are altogether 36, out of which on 23, BJP seems to have an edge - 7 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 9 seats in Rajasthan, and 7 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Both in the first and second phase, BJP’s allies in NDA in Bihar performed well. Initially, it seemed that BJP was ahead on Aurangabad, however, the party’s edge receded. RJD had clearly established its edge on this seat held in the first phase. RJD had also an edge in Nawada. On the rest two Gaya, and Jamui NDA allies HAM(S) and LJP (RV) seemed leading. In the second phase, JD(U), a BJP ally, has edge on Purnia, Bhagalpur, and Banka seat. In Kishanganj, INC seems ahead of JD(U), while in Katihar there is very close contest between the two.

In Chhattisgarh, election on only Bastar seat was held in the first phase, and BJP seems to be in stronger position as against INC. Three constituencies are going to poll in the second phase. INC candidates in Rajnandgaon and Kankerhave edge while the party is in close contest on Mahasamand.

In Madhya Pradesh, out of 6 seats where elections were held in the first phase, BJP seemed to have upper hand in only three – Sidhi, Shahdol, and Jabalpur. On the other three – Mandla, Balaghat, and Chhindwara, INC was able to perform well with an edge against BJP candidates. In the second phase of election campaigns for the 6 seats – Tikamgarh, Damoh, Khajuraho, Satna, Rewa, and Hoshangabad – going to poll, BJP has however established its upper hand. Betul constituency was initially scheduled for poll in the second phase, which has now been shifted to the third phase, where BJP seems to have an edge. PM Modi’s toxic attack on opposition and divisive election campaigns seemed to have benefited the party in the state.

However, in Rajasthan, where PM Modi’s objectionable comments against the opposition and Muslim communities came into being, BJP has seemingly performed badly in the first phase. Out of 12 seats where elections were held in the first phase, BJP had an edge on only 4 – Bharatpur, Bikaner, Dausa, and Jaipur. INC seemed to have edge on six – Alwar, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaipur Rural, Jhunjhunu, and Karauli-Dholpur, while its allies in the INDIA bloc – RLP and CPI(M) had edge an Nagaur and Sikar, much frustration to PM Modi and the BJP who have set target to win all the 25 states in the state.

After PM Modi’s toxic communal campaign BJP’s position has little improved. Now out of 13 Lok Sabha constituencies going to poll on April 26, as many as in 9, the party seemed to have been able to establish its upper hand. On Madhopur, Jalore, and Kota constituencies, BJP is still in a tougher and close contest with INC. INC ally BAP has established its upper hand in Banswara, but INC is yet to establish its upper hand in any of the constituencies in the second phase of election campaigns.

Uttar Pradesh is a key state of the Hindi heartland, from where PM Modi wants to have maximum number of seats, so that he and his BJP may return for the third term. However, in the first phase of election held on 8 seats, BJP had an edge on only 4 – Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, and Pilibhit. RLD, its ally in NDA, had an edge on Bijnor seat. In the rest 3 – Nagina, Moradabad, and Rampur, SP, and INDIA bloc ally had a clear edge.

Eight seats are going to poll in the second phase on April 26. PM Modi’s hardened Hindutva pitch seems to have improved its position, and as many as in 7 – Amroha, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mathura – the party seems to have established its upper hand. RLD is also riding on the Hindutva was, and has strengthened its position in Baghpat Lok Sabha constituency. Even though SP and Congress alliance has lately improved their position, but are yet behind BJP.

PM Modi had given a target to win all seats from Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh to cross 370 seats for BJP and 400+ seats for NDA. However, as the political situation stands at the fag end of second phase of Lok Sabha election campaign, the Hindi heartland seems no longer an invincible political citadel of PM Narendra Modi and BJP. (IPA Service)