In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats with a vote share of 52 per cent. The Congress was reduced to just one seat with a vote share of 31.3 percent despite its alliance with the JD(S). This time, the BJP has struck an alliance with the JD(S), leaving three seats to its partner.
Last year, the Congress had dethroned the BJP in the assembly polls, winning 135 of 224 seats. The BJP lost even its bastions in the North and Central Karnataka Lingayat belt, while the JD (S) was routed in the old Mysore Vokkaliga heartland, which had always backed the regional party. While the Lingayats were unhappy with the BJP about ouster of Yediyurappa, the Vokkalingas chose Congress, expecting to a see a fellow Vokkalinga D K Shivkumar as chief minister. It remains to be seen if the same caste combinations would be at play this time as Yediyurappa’s son B Y Vijayendra has been made state chief of the BJP, while Shivakumar continues to be locked in a leadership tussle with Chief Minister and Kuruba strongman Siddaramaiah. The possibility of Shivkumar replacing Siddaramaiah after the polls continues to be a talking point.
The run up to the polls—to be held in two phases on April 26 and May 7—saw the Congress giving 10 seats to the kin of cabinet ministers, while the BJP dropped 15 sitting MPs. While the Congress is facing rebel threat in Kolar and Bagalkote, the BJP is facing rebellion in at least six seats, including Shimoga, where former Deputy Chief K S Eshwarappa, upset over his son Kantesh being denied a ticket, is contesting as an independent.
In a surprise move, the BJP dropped firebrand Hindutva leader Pratap Simha and picked Mysuru royal scion Yaduveer Wadiyar, a political novice, in Mysuru, the chief minister’s home turf. To fight incumbent D K Suresh, younger brother of Shivkumar, in Bangalore Rural, the BJP has named prominent cardiologist Dr C N Manjunath, son-in-law of J D (S) supremo H D Deve Gowda. The strategy seems to have clicked as both Siddaramaiah and Shivkumar are spending a lot of time and energy to ensure victory of their candidates.
While political discourse on Ram temple, dynasty politics and Hindu Nationalism are becoming feeble, their place is being taken by issues such as development, guarantee schemes, corruption and misuse of enforcement agencies. The state of economy, universal basic income, capital expenditure and north-south divide are being talked about.
The Congress hopes that the ‘five guarantees’ campaign of the party will challenge the BJP’s aggressive push for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term. The five promises—free rice to BPL families, free bus ride for women, free power up to Rs 200, monthly assistance of Rs. 2,000 to female heads of families and unemployment benefits for fresh graduates—were the main reason for the congress’s thumping victory in assembly in the polls. (IPA Service)
CONGRESS IS HOPING ON ITS FIVE GUARANTEES FOR SUCCESS IN KARNATAKA POLLS
FOR BJP, THE PRIME TASK IS TO RETAIN ITS PRESENT LOK SABHA SEATS AMIDST MANY ODDS
Harihar Swarup - 24-04-2024 10:55 GMT-0000
Winning Karnataka is central to the BJP’s plans to make deeper inroads into the south. The saffron party tasted power for the first time in South India in 2008, when B S Yediyurappa formed the government in Karnataka despite falling short of a majority. While a clear majority has been evading the BJP in the assembly polls, it has broken the Congress monopoly in the state and paved the way for alternatives (coalition government). Another significant shift has been the BJP emerging as the preferred party in parliament elections. Since 2004, when the party bagged 18 of 28 seats, the Congress has been reduced to single—digit results.