In the first phase of election held on April 19, BJP’s performance was by and large reported to be very bad. Second phase of election is scheduled for April 26, and the ground reports coming out from the constituencies suggest that BJP was able to improve its performance only a little. It is self-explanatory as to why PM Narendra Modi stopped talking “400 paar” since all indications suggest the target is failing.

Out of 102 constituencies spreading in 21 states and UTs in the first phase, BJP had clear edge on only 30 seats while its allies in the NDA had upper hand in 3. NDA had thus edge on only 35 seats. Now, at the end of the campaign for the second phase of election, BJP seems to have an edge on only 39 seats out of 87 going to poll, while NDA allies have upper hand in only 5 seats. NDA, thus seems to have improved only a little with edge on 44 seats in this phase despite PM Modi’s toxic communal campaign on Hindutva line. Out of 189 seats covered in two phases, BJP has upper hand in only 69 seats, and NDA allies on 10 seats, adding up to only 79. It is happening on account of very poor performance of the BJP in Southern state – Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka.

Second phase of election is spread in 13 states and UTs where election will be held in 87 seats and in part of Outer Manipur Constituency in Manipur. The other Lok Sabha constituencies are – 4 in Assam, 5 in Bihar, 3 in Chhattisgarh, 14 in Karnataka, all 20 seats in Kerala, 6 in Madhya Pradesh, 8 in Maharashtra, 13 in Rajasthan, 1 in Tripura, 8 in Uttar Pradesh, 3 in West Bengal, and 1 in Jammu and Kashmir.

With this, the states and UTs where election would be completed are – Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and Puducherry, altogether 13.

BJP is comfortable placed in 4 constituencies in Assam out of 5 going to poll in the second phase. These are Silchar, Darang-Udalguri, Nagaon and Diphu. However, on Karimganj seat, INC has lately strengthened its position.

JD(U) in Bihar is going strong in 3 of the constituencies out of 5 in this phase of election. These are Purnia, Bhagalpur, and Banka. INC is stronger in Kishanganj, while the INDIA bloc is in close contest with JD(U) on Katihar.

Out of 3 seats going to poll in second phase in Chhattisgarh, BJP has clear edge on none. The party is in close contest in Mahasamund with its rival INC. It is much to the frustration of BJP that INC is going stronger in Rajnandgaon and Kanker constituencies.

BJP would have to suffer greatly in Karnataka, where 14 seats are going to poll in the second phase. INC seems to have an edge in as many as 8 seats –Chitradurga, Mandya, Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore Central, Chikkballapur, and Kolar. BJP’s position is better in 5 –Udupi Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Tumkur, Bangalore North, and Bangalore South. BJP’s ally JD(S) is stronger than its rival INC candidate in Hassan Lok Sabha constituency.

Though PM Modi has been extensively campaigning in Kerala in a bid to open BJP’s account, the party is far behind than INDIA bloc candidates. Chief contest in the state is between the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) and CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF). All the 20 seats from the state will thus be bagged by the INDIA bloc.

In Madhya Pradesh, 6 seats are going to poll in the second phase. BJP is stronger than its rival Congress and INDIA bloc candidates in all the seats. It should be noted that there was a seat sharing arrangement between Congress and SP and the Khajuraho seat was given to SP. However, after rejection of the nomination of SP candidate, this seat was given to AIFB.

Maharashtra has made PM Modi’s returning to power for the third term a little difficult. Out of 8 seats going to poll in the second phase, BJP has an edge in only 2 seats – Wardha and Akola. INC is stronger in Amravati and Nanded. As for the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) are concerned, the latter is stronger in 4 seats –Buldhana, Yavatmal-Washi, Hingoli, and Parbhani. It is much to the frustration of BJP leadership, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP(Ajit Pawar) may not be able to contribute much to PM Modi’s kitty of seats in 2024 LokSabha polls.

PM Modi has consolidated his position in Rajasthan in the second phase, after his tirade against Congress and referring to Muslims. Out of the 13 seats going to poll, BJP has clear edge in 9 –Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, and Jhalawar-Baran. The party is in defensive in four–Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Jalor, Banswara, and Kota. Congress ally BAP has clear edge in Banswara, but in three other Congress has lately improved its strength.

BJP seems performing well in Uttar Pradesh in the second phase. Out of 8, the party has an edge in 7 – Amroha, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh and Mathura. RLD has upper hand in Baghpat.

Similarly, Jammu and Tripura East constituencies are likely to favour BJP. However, in West Bengal where the party has set a target to win 35 out of 42 seats, as per the statement made by Amit Shah, its performance on the ground suggests big failure of the target. Three constituencies are going to poll in this phase. BJP has an edge on Darjeeling seat, while TMC is stronger in Raiganj and Balurghat.

This means, only a much better performance in the next five phases of election on 354 seats could enable PM Modi to return to power for the third term. Here lies the reason for his increasing aggressiveness and communal tirade against the opposition. Election Commission of India has said that they are looking into the matter for any possible violation of Model Code of Conduct by the Prime Minister himself. (IPA Service)