Instead, it has been silence since then. No one in authority even wanted to talk about the old reform package. The Prime Minister himself avoided mention of his old agenda in his first formal statement. Media persons had to extract a couple of apologetic words from Kamal Nath. Even Pranab Mukherjee, in answer to queries, linked the future moves on the pending reform agenda with 'sustained' growth stimulus. The message is clear: there can be partial disinvestment of selected PSUs as a means to mop up easy money. Unlike earlier, reform is not being treated as a separate agenda but only as part of the efforts to restore the strength of the economy.
This is also the message from the PM's 100-day 'must-do' package. Leave it all vague seems to be the prevailing mantra. The unfinished reform package includes pension bill to provide massive funds to private and foreign players, insurance bill to raise FDI cap, privatisation of PSUs, banking bill to facilitate full foreign and private role in banking, FDI in retail trade, opening coal mining to privates, labour law change to allow free hire and fire and leave petroleum pricing to the market. In the past one year, the administrative price was used to check the petro prices even without the Left blockade.
Apparently, there are different priorities for UPA2. As against the old reform baggage, the emphasis now is on massive induction of funds, mostly government borrowings, in infrastructure projects like roads, power, energy and transport. Another area is inclusive social programmes like NREGS, Bharat Nirman and rural health mission. Then there are Congress party's election promises like 25 kg rice for poor families at Rs. 3 per kg. Forget Mamata Banerjee's street corner announcement of large rail freebies to hawkers, jobless and the poor. The new government's sudden ban of futures trade in sugar, an old Left irritant, reflects the post-poll mood. The old reformwallas, who had in the 90s wanted to leave even the infrastructure to the market, are in for big disappointment. Populism and profligacy are no more dirty words.
The post-election Congress is clearly in a euphoric frame of mind. They are guided by triumphalism and a new sense of pragmatism. The secret of poll victory, they argue, is social programmes and concepts like inclusive growth. If the party goes back on this, it will mean violation of poll promises. From this flows moves for massive investments in aam aadmi-oriented programmes. If some of the old reform agenda helps the process, these will be enforced. But all of the reform pending agenda is no more being treated as ordained or infallible, nor are they seen as panacea for all ills..
The global capitalist turmoil has already forced others to revisit the globalisation rules and reshape liberalisation to serve domestic interests. Protectionism is back with a vengeance. As against old financial liberalisation, the trend now is to put more regulations. Just a few months before the meltdown broke, PM had advocated full convertibility of rupee. Check on deficit financing, one of IMF's Ten Commandments, is no more a holy cow. A section within the Congress wants India take all such factors into account and try to chart out an 'Indian path.' The idea may be too premature but post-poll triumphalism has a restraining effect even on the most ardent advocates of the old style reform agenda.
For Left, the change comes as a paradox. The Left got badly mauled in the elections. But the ideas for which they fought have triumphed. In 2004, Sitaram Yechury had to struggle for two days to insert 'pro-people' ideas like NREGS in the CMP. The reform group had then doggedly resisted such 'populist' programmes as 'bottomless bucket'. However, Sonia Gandhi's intervention, assisted by reputed NGO activists, finally won the day. Even after this, the plan panel under Montek Singh Ahluwalia had put spokes in the CMP programmes in the name of fund crunch. The irony does not stop here. And finally, electoral benefits of the social programmes went to the hesitant supporters, not original advocates.
Foreign policy is an area where the UPA2's discomfort level is more pronounced. Suddenly, India's foreign policy establishment finds much of what it had invested in the Bush administration has lost in the time warp. It had established a system of constant liaison with Washington, even to counter the Left challenge. Envoy David Mulford freely met BJP leaders seeking support for government initiatives. The concept of strategic partnership with the Bush administration seemed so overawing to fit itself with the Obama matrix.
Therefore, every Obama move - not just on visa regime or outsourcing - is watched with suspicion, and every gesture like routine greetings from Washington as great diplomatic feat. Perhaps we still keep hoping that despite brave campaign promises, US Presidents eventually fall into the traditional trappings of its establishment. As this does not seem to be happening now, we realise the Afpak policy is not entirely to our liking. Under Obama, US priorities are clearly changing.
The Bush paradigm had prevented us from joining the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Obama's soft approach to Iran, at least as of now, may help us join the otherwise economically beneficial IPI venture. Strategic writers have already suggested we should grab the opportunity to re-engage ourselves with the Muslim world. However, hardening US attitude to Israel can cause us worry. In case Israel resists US arms-twisting, it looks like that now, sanctions against that country can put our deals with our biggest arms supplier in jeopardy.
The biggest concern should be over the growing US-China engagement. Call it Chimerica or Big2, the two are disturbingly coming closer. Both need each other. This has already begun telling on us. Americans no more talk of making India a world power as a counterweight to China. We are no more being told to join the 'axis of democracy'. However, an area where the new US administration is still keen is defence sales and the framework agreement. The renewed pressures for signing the End-use Verification Agreement (EVA) and those like Logistics Support Agreement (LSA) are an indication of this aspect of the US ties. (IPA Service)
Indian Politics
The old agenda has lost its lustre
Priorities have changed after the polls
Political Correspondent - 30-05-2009 09:47 GMT-0000
When the UPA government swept back to power with enhanced strength, it was instantly claimed as an endorsement of the Prime Minister's reform package and his foreign policy. Hours after the results came out, the corporate honchos and business associations made fervent appeals to the PM to rush ahead with the unfinished reform agenda. Everyone thought the PM's first task will be to undertake what an obstructing Left had vetoed for most of his first term.