With election of 94 Lok Sabha constituency in the third phase, election would be completed on 283 seats out of the total 543 in the country, leaving only 260 seats for the next four phases of election. In the fourth phase of election scheduled on May 13, another 96 constituencies are scheduled for polling.

PM Narendra Modi had given a call for 370 seats for the BJP and 400+ seats for the NDA, which at the end of the third phase seems to be unattainable. Moreover, BJP has performed badly in the first two phases and this trend will continue in the third phase on May7.

Barring Gujarat, BJP’s electoral performance does not seem to reach PM Modi’s expectations. In Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma tried his best, but BJP does not seem to increase its tally. At best the party can maintain only status quo. In the entire northeast, the party is all set to fail in retaining its tally compared to the 2019 election.

Bihar is going to have election in 7 phases, and by the third phase election to the 14 seats, does not enthuse the BJP. Chiefly because of the bad performance of its allies JD(U) and LJP (RV), which were contesting more seats in the first three phases. The election on 14 seats reveals that Congress-RJD-Left combine in the state giving tough electoral battle, and that is likely to continue even in the next four phases. BJP is not likely to bag any seat in the first three phases though NDA tally may reach about 8 seats.

The situations in the other Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh have also turned difficult for the BJP. It triggered PM Narendra Modi unleashing his vitriolic communal campaign centred around SC, ST, OBCs and Muslims all for targeting Congress and INDIA bloc and deriving benefit from the communal polarization of Hindus in his favour. Model Code of Conduct has clearly been violated lately, which might be a result of his despair. He is clearly seen swinging between hope and despair, on moment it seems best of times, and on the next seems to be worst of times for his electoral fortune.

With completion of election in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan by third phase, uncertainly looms large for the BJP’s prospect due to very close contests between the BJP and Congress in almost half of the seats, and many of them BJP is running a risk to lose. As far as Uttar Pradesh is concerned, unity within Samajwadi party, and among its support base have been seen unprecedentedly at very high level. Having seen the contests in the 26 constituency by the third phase, BJP is running the risk of losing over half a dozen seats. It means it would be very difficult for the BJP to retain its 62 seats the party had won in 2019 Lok Sabha election. It has made the challenge for PM Modi and CM Adityanath Yogi very difficult in the next three phases of election in the state for 54 other seats. The realization of the dream of winning 75 seats from the state may just remain a dream, as the first three phases of election have already shown.

Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and West Bengal are all set to be a nightmare for the BJP, despite the party’s claim of championing the Naari Shakti. The nightmare has started from the Karnataka, where PM Narendra Modi and the entire BJP machinery campaigned for their ally’s candidate who was accused of molesting women. It has created the third phase election in Karnataka very tough for the BJP candidates who have become defensive, after losing their face. In Uttar Pradesh, the party has given ticket to the son of the accused molester of wrestler women.

It would likely to impact women’s voting pattern not only in Uttar Pradesh but also in Haryana, since the victims were of Haryana state. Then again there is West Bengal where Modi government is silent on molestation charges against their Governor while BJP has been raising Sandeshkhali women’s molestation case in which a BJP leader was reported saying that Sandeshkhali allegations were false to defame TMC during election campaigns. Thus, political outcome in the four states will depend on how women take the allegations against BJP as supporters of women molesters. It is despite the fact that PM Modi has warned Hindu women that their “Mangalsutras” are at risks of being taken away by Congress and INDIA bloc if they come to power, and would be handed over the “Muslims”.

Maharashtra remains politically complex even in the third phase, where BJP by and large depends on the performance of its allies – the splinter groups of Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar). Uncertainty has put PM Modi on the tenterhooks.

PM Modi’s concerns have increased on account of the party’s running the risk of losing its two dozen seats in the third phase itself, on which INDIA bloc allies have lately offering very tough electoral battle. BJP will have to win at least 150 out of 260 in the next four phases to reach the magic mark of 272 to form government on its own, which is of course a very challenging situation. Major states in the next for phase are Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Punjab, Odisha, West Bengal, and Bihar, where the party’s predicaments are numerous. (IPA Service)