BJP had won 178 out of 226 constituencies in the Hindi belt, and NDA 204 in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. There are 11 states in the Hindi belt – Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand have already polled, and in the rest of the states, elections will be completed in the next three phases. Uttarakhand is the only state where BJP has performed well. Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have witnessed closer contests between the BJP and Congress. NDA had won all 25 seats (BJP 24) in Rajasthan in 2019, but Congress was able to give tough fight in almost half of the constituencies this time. BJP had won 9 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh in 2019 polls but it found it had to struggle this time in several seats. BJP’s position in Madhya Pradesh seemed better, but there were closer contests with Congress. BJP had won 28 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh in 2019 election but this time the party was seen struggling in over half a dozen seats.

What happened in Bihar in the first four phase of election held in 19 seats, presents a grim scenario of BJP which had won 17 seats and NDA 39 out of 40 in the state. Most of the seats were contested by BJP allies so far, BJP had an opportunity to win only a couple of seats. JD(U) and LJP (RV) did not seem to perform well, and therefore NDA tally from Bihar this time is sure to decline. In the next three phases, BJP has greater stakes, but had to face greater challenge from INDIA bloc allies RJD, Congress and Left.

Elections have been held on only 4 seats in Jharkhand so far. BJP seemed in great trouble since in three of them Congress seemed to have an edge, while on one seat BJP had to face a tough contest to retain its seat. There seems to be a shift in voters in the ground level. BJP is facing a prospect of losing some of its support base which has made the situation challenging in almost half a dozen seats out of 11 that the party had won in 2019. NDA’s score in 2019 from the state was 12 out of 14 seats.

With AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal out from jail on interim bail, BJP faces very tough electoral battle in Delhi’s 7, Haryana’s 10, and Chandigarh’s 1 seat, which are altogether 18. BJP had won all the 18 seats in 2019. Congress-AAP alliance candidates are set to offer tough contests to BJP in all the seats. In 2019, Congress and AAP had contested separately making a division of anti-BJP votes. Moreover, there was Pulwama wave in favour of the BJP. This time there is no wave in favour of BJP anywhere.

People in Delhi are expressing their deep anguish against Centre’s interference in welfare schemes in Delhi, which is likely to work against BJP’s electoral prospect, apart from sympathy for Kejriwal whose arrest is by and large seen as political. There is a triangular contest in Haryana, with double anti-incumbency against the BJP, which may cost the party dearly. NDA has already suffered a split, and BJP’s state government has been reduced to minority after changeover of chief minister only in March. INDIA bloc in Chandigarh has also an edge over BJP. It means, BJP is well set to lose majority of 18 seats in these UTs and State.

Congress recently survived the political upheaval in Himachal Pradesh. At one time the state seemed going against the Congress, but situation has changed now. All the four constituencies from the state could witness tough electoral battle between the BJP and Congress candidates.

The greatest stake of BJP is in Uttar Pradesh, where the party had won 62 out of 80, and NDA 64 seats in 2019. A total of 39 Lok Sabha seats have already polled so far in the first four phases of elections. Congress-SP alliance candidates in as many as 8 Lok Sabha constituencies have made the BJP candidates almost nervous, if their statements are of any indication. In the next three phases majority of 41 constituencies are set to witness very tough electoral battle between BJP and INDIA bloc.

Moreover, BJP is not in a position to compensate any loss in the Hindi belt from anywhere else in the country. PM Modi has damaged his own prospects in Odisha by personally attacking CM Naveen Patnaik which people of the state did not like. Political wind has just reversed in the state in the last one week to much frustration of the BJP. Only 13 constituencies in Maharashtra and 24 in West Bengal will poll in the next phases, where BJP is contesting electoral battles too tough to compensate losses in the Hindi belt. (IPA Service)