This risk factor has been well manifested in getting the AAP Supremo and Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s power curtailed, administrative officials taken away from under his elected government and putting them under direct control of Centre’s nominee Lieutenant Governor leading to disobedience to Kejriwal government, and finally getting key AAP leaders, including Kejriwal arrested and put behind bar. Initially, there was only one case against Kejriwal, later two other cases were brought against him and his party, and finally Union Home Minister Amit Shah says there were seven other cases of corruption. Kejriwal is out from jail on interim bail granted by Supreme Court of India to campaign for election.

Ever since AAP Supremo Kejriwal has come out from jail, the morale of the rank and file of the opposition parties in general, and AAP and Congress in particular in Delhi has reached to a very high level. Congress and AAP have alliance in the state. Congress is contesting on three seats while AAP is contesting on four. INDIA bloc hopes to wrest all the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi from BJP, which it had won in 2019.

BJP on the other hand has certain difficulties in convincing the people in the state that all the problems they are facing in Delhi is due to maladministration under AAP government led by Arvind Kejriwal. It is because people know the reality that Delhi is governed by BJP by proxy through its appointee Lieutenant Governor. It is due to precisely this reason there is a greater anti-incumbency against the BJP compared to AAP. Land and housing, and also the law and order, are directly controlled by the BJP government at the Centre, and people are not happy. Delhi have acquired a double distinction of crime capital of India also, where people are greatly suffering.

Another important factor emerged during the election campaign is the Lieutenant Governor’s interference in implementation of various schemes being implemented for the benefit of the common people by AAP government. The schemes related to water supply, electricity bills, school education, and health clinics in every ward with facilities for free checkup, free medicine, and free medical investigation have been in the focus, since they are not running now smoothly on account of certain orders and policies adopted by Lieutenant Governor overruling the AAP government’s or even Vidhan Sabha’s decisions.

And we know the voting pattern in the country, where majority of people vote and support according to their personal experience of benefit and loss under certain political rule. Majority don’t go for right and wrong, but give support to those from whom benefits come. It is in this context all the cases against Kejriwal of corruption are losing political relevance for the beneficiaries of his schemes. Though PM has said more than once that his government is committed for action against the corrupt INDIA bloc politicians, people shrug it aside saying PM Modi and BJP are also not “dudh and dhula” (white as milk), a euphemistic expression for saying’ having neck deep in black deeds’.

Naturally, BJP’s only hope has been on the effectiveness of time-tested Hindutva communal election campaigns which has failed in turning into a wave, as it was seen in the Lok Sabha election of 2019. Riding on xenophobia relating to Pakistan and Pulwama attack, and the so-called surgical strike, BJP was able to win all the 7 seats with 56.86 per cent of votes in 2019 . At that time INC and AAP were not allies and both bagged 22.51 and 18.11 per cent of votes. However, the Vidhan Sabha election in 2020 shows that BJP’s vote share sharply declined, showing the weakening of the BJP in Delhi. Even the MCD election held at the end of 2022 continued the BJP’s declining support base.

Congress has recently suffered with some of its leaders resigning and joining the BJP fold. However, changing stance of Congress leaders seem to have little adverse impact on the three constituencies –Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi, and North West Delhi – the party is contesting. AAP supporters are strongly supporting Congress candidates in these constituencies, improving their political fortune.

AAP is contesting on East Delhi, New Delhi, West Delhi, and South Delhi seats, where it has a very large support base which seems to be intact despite BJP’s campaigns of tarnishing image of AAP’s supremo Arvind Kejriwal and its other leaders on account of corruption charges.

Modi-Shah duo’s election strategy in Delhi seems not effective in convincing anti-BJP votes, or even floating votes. Anti-BJP votes will certainly go either with the Congress or with the AAP. There seems to be no major shift towards any other political party.

There is obviously neck and neck contests in all the 7 constituencies between INDIA bloc and BJP candidates. BJP is running a risk of political humiliation in the National Capital City where the seat of power is. INDIA bloc is sure to cut into BJP’s 2019 Lok Sabha tally of seven, despite all the allegations against the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. (IPA Service)