On the 10th anniversary of the coup, staged by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha who will go down in history as a light-handed dictator who used to write ballads to entertain people, the then Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra hoped that the country is on the path of democracy, making the media speculate if she is planning to return to Thai politics. Her elder brother and two-time Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who spent 15 years abroad after his government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, made a dramatic return in August 2023.

“It has been 10 years since the coup d'état on May 22, 2014, and it has been a long time. However, I am starting to have hope. That is, to see the country return to the path of democracy. There will be a new constitution written by the people, for the people. This will open up opportunities for the country to develop to its full potential and raise the standard of everyone,” the 56-year-old former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra wrote in a post in Thai on X.

After the 74-year-old Thaksin returned, he was sentenced to an eight-year prison term, which was later commuted to one year by a royal clemency order. However, Thaksin spent only about 12 hours in prison as he was shifted to a government hospital for treatment of several health conditions. He spent the next six months in the hospital before being given parole.

After the coup on May 22, 2014, General Chan-o-cha became Thailand’s Prime Minister and continued until May last year when his party fared poorly in the general elections. Subsequently, he announced his resignation from active politics.

One of the biggest achievements of Prayuth Chan-o-cha is the royal transition from King Bhumibol to his son King Vajiralongkorn. While King Bhumibol has been on the throne for 70 years and was deeply revered by the people, his son King Vajiralongkorn is less popular. The 10-year rule of Prayuth has created a strong counter to any drastic anti-royalist move, especially with the 250-member senate filled by pro-royalists like Prayuth.

In early 2018, a set of constitutional amendments, largely seen as controversial, was signed by Senate President Say Chhum into law with immediate effect, instead of the King doing so. The changes included a new lèsemajesté law that banned “insults” to the King by “word, gesture, writing, picture or other media which affects the dignity of the individual” by anyone in the country, including the media.

In March, the Supreme Court of Thailand acquitted Yingluck in a corruption case involving $6.7 billion related to infrastructure projects approved during her government in 2013. Yingluck was sentenced to five years in jail in 2017 while she had fled from the country anticipating the sentencing. In December 2023, The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions acquitted Yingluck of alleged abuse of power in a 2011 case. The acquittal of Yingluck in the last remaining case against her clears the way for her return to Thailand.

While Yingluck has expressed hope that the country could lead to the path of democracy after a new constitution is adopted, the main opposition Move Forward Party has warned that the “roots and branches” of the Prayut administration are still spreading. The party said the Prayut governing system is deep-seated and resilient to changes.

However, the 71-year-old King Vajiralongkorn is believed to be contemplating choosing his successor and one of the likely candidates to inherit his $42-billion royal estate and business empire is his 42-year-old son Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, living estranged in the United States for over 25 years.

In August 2023, he made a surprise visit to Thailand, making everyone wonder if he was the chosen one. He has made two more visits to the country and has also taken a Thai passport. He is the second son of King Vajiralongkorn’s second wife Sujarinee Vivacharawongse. Vacharaesornis a practising lawyer in New York.

People wonder if he is the one, will he take an orthodox line to the royalty or let democracy take a stronger root in Thailand? The red carpet being laid for the Shinawatra family hints that it’s the second option that’s more likely. (IPA Service)