In a seat sharing arrangement between Congress and AAP, Congress’s Manish Tewari is contesting in Chandigarh Lok Sabha Constituency. Sanjay Tandon is BJP’s candidate, who was given ticket after replacing the party’s two term MP Kiron Kher. She had won this seat in 2019 by bagging 50.64 per cent of votes and defeating INC candidate who was able to get 40.35 per cent. AAP had also contested the election separately, and had got 3.82 per cent of votes.

With the resurgent Congress and anti-incumbency against the PM Narendra Modi led BJP, INDIA bloc candidate seems doing well, despite opposition’s “outsider” claim against him. Chandigarh BJP is struggling to retain this seat in a tough electoral battle. The recent mayoral election has shown people’s preference towards INDIA bloc in this UT. Election was rigged by BJP’s returning officer, which necessitated intervention of the Supreme Court to restore the sanctity of election process. People generally believe in this constituency that if election are not rigged through stratagem and machines, BJP candidate is going to lose.

When we move from Chandigarh towards the Hoshiarpur and Gurudaspur Lok Sabha Constituencies bordering Himachal Pradesh, the two seats that were won by the BJP in 2019, the party seems to be struggling for maintaining its relevancy this time. These two constituencies are more influenced by the political situation in Himachal Pradesh, due to large Hindu population, and do not reflect the general political mood of Punjab. BJP seems to be performing well in Himachal Pradesh where Congress is not also far behind in contest. Therefore, in these two constituencies of Punjab, BJP seems to be losing its upper hand because Congress candidates are offering very tough electoral battle to BJP candidates.

There is an additional factor too. NDA has suffered a split after SAD deserting the BJP in 2020 opposing PM Narendra Modi’s three controversial farm laws against which farmers of Punjab launched the historic farmers’ agitation in independent India which compelled the PM to withdraw them. It is for the first time BJP is contesting in all seats in the state on its own, but facing stiff opposition by farmers and rural communities. SAD is also contesting all the 13 seats in Punjab, but farmers are still angry with the party since it had joined hands with BJP, which they allege followed anti-farmer policies and tried to bring corporates to the farming sector..

Therefore, in most seats in Punjab, the contest is between AAP and Congress, since they could not agree to contest as INDIA bloc partners. They are in friendly contests in the state. In Gurudaspur, BJP has fielded Dinesh Singh Babbu a three-time MLA and former Deputy Speaker of Punjab Vidhan Sabha, while SAD has fielded party’s senior vice president Daljeet Singh Cheema. Heavyweight Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, a former Deputy CM of the state, is Congress candidate while AAP has fielded Amansher Singh Sherry Kalsi. This is one of the few seats where Congress has an edge over other the political parties.

In Hoshiarpur, AAP candidate Raj Kumar Chabberwal and INC’s Yamini Gomar are pitted against each other while the BJP candidate Anita Parkash and SAD candidate Sohan Singh Thandal are trailing behind. BJP is struggling to retain this seat this time.

As of now, INC candidate the former Chief Minister Charnjit Singh Channi seems to have a clear edge. AAP candidate on this seat is Pawan Kumar Tinu, however, is offering big challenge to Congress candidate.

In the remaining ten seats – Amritsar, Khadoor Sahib, Anandpur Sahib, Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib, Faridkot, Firozpur, Bathinda, Sangrul and Patiala – main contests are between the AAP and INC candidates, while SAD and BJP candidates are making all effort to be in the campaign.

Three days before the election campaign end date May 30, it seems the political wind is blowing in favour of AAP in these 10 seats, though in some of the constituencies ,Congress candidates are giving good fight.

In the Lok Sabha election 2019, Congress had become the largest political party of Punjab by winning 8 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats and bagging 40.12 per cent of votes. SAD and BJP had won 2 seats each with votes share 27.76 and 9.63 per cent respectively. Only one seat was won by AAP which was able to get 7.38 per cent of votes. However, the situation had drastically changed during Vidhan Sabha election 2022. AAP’s vote share increased to 42.01 per cent, while INC’s vote share declined to 22.98, and SAD’s to 18.38 per cent, and BJP’s to 6.6 per cent.

BJP president of Punjab Sunil Jakhar has claimed that election result would bring more than the party’s expectation in 2024, it would be only a trailer, which would pave the way for the party in 2027 Vidhan Sabha election. BJP’s hope rests on four seats – Gurudaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, and Patiala – but wind is blowing against them. Neither in terms of seats, nor in terms of public support to the party in the state seems to be encouraging for the BJP leadership, BJP and SAD are actually struggling for their political relevance in the state. (IPA Service)