PM Narendra Modi is contesting from Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency, where he hopes for a comfortable win, but not without concern, since any loss even in the winning margin would signal his losing popularity among the people in his own constituency. He and his RSS-BJP clan have, therefore, leaving no stone unturned to increase his winning margin of 4,79,505 in the last Lok Sabha election held in 2019. BJP leaders are claiming doubling this winning margin which does not seem possible at this time. In the last election, SP candidate Shalini Yadav was runner up, however, this time under the seat sharing arrangement, Congress candidate Ajai Rai is INDIA bloc candidate. Obviously, INDIA bloc is giving stronger contest than in 2019.

It is worth noting that SP and the Congress had bagged 18.40 and 14.38 per cent of votes when they had contested separately in 2019. PM Modi had bagged 63.62 per cent of votes with a swing of 7.25 per cent of votes in his favour chiefly because he was riding on the Pulwama wave. Ram Temple inauguration has swelled the public sentiment in his favour in January, but it has been receding since.

A total of 13 Lok Sabha constituencies, including Varanasi, in Uttar Pradesh are scheduled to poll, and PM Modi, seeking for his third term, can’t afford to lose even a single seat. In the last six phases of election in the state, BJP did not perform well in over half a dozen seats, which means the party running a risk to lose some of the 62 seats it had won in 2019. It is a matter of great concern now for the party that SP candidates on at least three seats – Ballia, Ghazipur, Ghosi – have been giving sleepless nights to BJP’s candidates.

As for the BJP’s ally AD(S) is concerned, its candidates have slight edge on Mirzapur and Robertsganj seats. Earlier, another NDA ally RLD had also not performed well, but only in two seats. NDA’s tally in 2019 from the state was 64, with two seats of AD(S). BJP had set a target of winning 74 seats for itself and 4 seats for allies in total 80 seats of the states. However, the party is far behind its target in the state. Rather it is found struggling to retain its 62 seats. In the last phase of election, BJP seems to have an upper hand in Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagr, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur, Chanduli, and of course Varanasi.

If we compare the BJP’s performance in the last phase, Uttar Pradesh still gives a better picture for the NDA, though it may lose three seats to INDIA bloc. In other states, the party seems to be performing much worse compared to earlier phases of election.

On the lone seat in the Union Territory Chandigarh, and on the 13 seats in Punjab, BJP seems to be facing big challenges from INDIA bloc candidates. In Chandigarh, there is a seat sharing arrangement between the Congress and AAP, and Congress is offering a tough electoral battle to BJP candidate, which is a new face. Sensing anti-incumbency, BJP has brought him in the electoral battlefield denying ticket to its sitting MP. Congress has very good chance to annexe the Chandigarh seat which film actress Kiron Kher won in 2019 elections..

BJP had won two seats in Punjab – Gurudaspur and Hoshiarpur – in 2019 election. At that time BJP and SAD had contested jointly. Now they are contesting separately in all the 13 seats, BJP for the fist time. Though there is no seat sharing arrangement in Punjab between the AAP and INC, they have emerged as chief contestants. BJP is just struggling to retain its seats in a losing battle in the state.

BJP finds its hopes dashed even in Bihar, where 8 constituencies are scheduled for vote in this phase. Out of these eight seats, BJP is seen having edge on only one Patna Sahib seat, while its ally JD(U) seems performing well in Nalanda. INC candidate has upper hand in Sasaram while RJD is giving tough fight to NDA candidates in Patliputra, Buxar, and Jahanabad. There may be good news for Left politics, since CPI(ML)L, an ally in the INDIA bloc along with RJD and INC, is expected to perform well in two constituencies.

BJP has exuded confidence of winning all the four seats from Himachal Pradesh scheduled for poll.In the last phase. However, the situation is not that favourable. Still BJP has an edge on Mandi and Hamirpur seats, but their candidates on Kangda and Shimla are facing stiff challenge due to local issues.

Jharkhand is now offering an altered political situation that runs against the BJP which had won 11 seats out of 14 in the state while its ally AJSU party had won 1 seat. Both are contesting as ally this time also, but they are set to greatly suffer on account of shift of votes away from them – to a new entrant JBKSS and to INDIA bloc candidates. NDA has performed badly in earlier phases. Three constituencies – Rajmahal, Dumka, and Godda – are going to poll in the current phase, but only on Godda seat BJP has some hope. BJP’s Nishikant Dubey is facing tough fight with INC’s Pradeep Yadav. However, JMM seems to have edge in Rajmahal and Dumka.

The two states where BJP had great hopes are – Odisha and West Bengal. BJP had won 8 seats in Odisha in 2019, and has been entertaining great hope of increasing its tally. BJD had won 12 seats out of 21 in the state. However, due to PM Narendra Modi’s personal attack on CM Naveen Patnaik, people are lately found sympathizing with the BJP . It may impact the BJP’s prospect of winning more seats. Only 7 seats including Mayurbhanj, Balasore, Bhadrak, Jaipur, Kendrapara, and Jagatsinghpur are to poll now. In the last leg of the campaign, BJD has emerged stronger causing worry to the BJP leadership.

BJP had set very high target of winning 35 seats from West Bengal, as against 18 it had won in 2019 elections. It is one of the three politically most sensitive states, the others being Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where elections were scheduled in all 7 phases. The state has witnessed sharp polarization between the TMC and BJP, and therefore, political fortunes of all other parties including the Congress and the Left have become dismal. In the last phase, polling is taking place in nine seats in Bengal. All these are presently with the TMC. It seems that despite Prime Minister’s big campaign rallies and roadshows in the fag end of the campaign in Kolkata and adjoining districts, it will be difficult for the BJP to get any new seat from this group of nine. However, the BJP has mobilized its organizational machinery at optimum level in most of the seats. The results will only be known on June 4. (IPA Service)