Tharoor’s party leads the PM-face race in the INDI-Alliance. Chances of Tharoor becoming a Union minister are strong. And Tharoor has been brushing up on criminal laws. Tharoor spoke of undoing certain amendments to the UAPA in Shimla. Doesn't matter that Himachalis would rather keep UAPA as it is, whereas Kerala would vote for its demise ASAP.

The thing is Tharoor’s policy differences with the Modi government, which may or may not be voted out, have become talking points. Tharoor wants trade with Pakistan resumed and, now, his stance on the anti-terror law UAPA. Shashi Tharoor has a substantial Muslim vote-bank and the travails of Sidheeq Kappan, who was charged under the “draconian UAPA”, must have had a profound effect on Tharoor.

Shashi Tharoor’s bleeding heart will not be denied if the INDIA bloc comes to power. So on June 4, India will know if Narendra Modi remains Prime Minister and if Tharoor gets the UAPA axed for its more toxic elements. Only INDIA bloc political parties and their supporters are, however, waiting with bated breath. The ‘Hindutva bloc’ is convinced that Modi’s magic will continue to play to full houses.

Some people in the opposition, with hope in their hearts, are banking on an invisible “undercurrent” in favour of the INDI-Alliance. On May 28, an “undercurrent” was reportedly flowing the Modi way in West Bengal. Others were talking of different outcomes-different strokes. There are “pollsters” with predictions, but even the all-knowing pollsters haven’t been able to put a finger on the electoral pulse.

The question most asked is, how many seats would the BJP get? This, when both Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President JP Nadda have been shouting “abki baar 400 paar” from rooftops across India. On May 28, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal put his “400 paar” alongside those of Modi, Shah and Nadda as he went around Varanasi, Modi’s parliamentary constituency, campaigning for Modi.

It is only now, after much goading, that the INDI-Alliance has given tentative numbers to “how many seats will the INDIA bloc get?” The count is “above 300”. More emphatic is the assertive claim that “Modi will not be Prime Minister by afternoon of June 4”. Modi is the singular most hated figure in INDI-Alliance circles and the answer to whether Modi loves it or hates it will be revealing. From all counts, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been enjoying the attention.

Meanwhile, the guessing game associated with how many seats the BJP will get, from the “bare minimum” to the “total unstoppable”, has embroiled everybody with a question mark to flaunt. Of course, the “loyal broadcast media” is getting its share of brickbats for asking the same question and answering it with a similar guess-estimate. It is not a friendly world out there in the sticks.

Journalists-turned-number crunchers are also on the job and will remain employed till after the exit poll numbers have put a spoke in their wheels. On June 1, the day the seventh phase will vote, two things will happen. One, the exit polls will throw up a winner, and a loser. Two, the INDIA bloc will hold a meeting to “review” the elections and prepare the alliance for a post-Modi India.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will not attend. It could be because the meeting has been called by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, the same Kharge who was at one point almost named as the INDI-Alliance’s “PM Face”. Since then, Mamata Banerjee has developed a paranoia which reflects in her statements and actions, with the Congress mostly in Mamata’s crosshairs.

The biggest negative dogging the INDI-Alliance is the disunity in its ranks. There is no guarantee that the INDI-Alliance will survive the elections. The talk is after the BJP/NDA has been routed and Narendra packed off to Vadnagar, Gujarat, INDI-Alliance will have to come together to form a coalition government. Who will helm the alliance government? Tharoor’s UAPA intervention has spread some optimism; perhaps Tharoor has read the tea leaves right though he looks the coffee-type.

The problem is the BJP continues to talk of “400 seats” and a third and a fourth term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Talk of a slide towards authoritarianism is giving nightmares to the Muslim minority. Certain INDI-Alliance parties don’t like Modi’s rhetoric on ending corruption and putting an end to the corrupt. RJD’s Tejaswi Prasad Yadav will be in third-term Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s crosshairs. So will Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejaswi’s sister Misa Bharati, the entire Lalu clan.

Narendra Modi looks omnipotent, and according to his own admission, "not biologically born”. June 4 could see a massive liberal meltdown if Modi wins. Then again, a third Modi term could deteriorate into chaos on the issues of reservation for ST/SC/OBC, on the even more contentious “Muslim reservation”. Over legal MSP and the Agniveer scheme. All these have been red-flagged by the INDI-Alliance, which will survive if there’s a Modi victory. Whether Narendra Modi stays Prime Minister or is defeated, and whether INDI-Alliance survives or dies, will be known on June 4. (IPA Service)