Facts first. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) scored a morale-boosting victory, winning l8 out of the 20 seats from the State. The LDF managed to bag only one seat – Alathur. The Front lost the Attingal seat by the proverbial whisker. The Congress scrapped through with a wafer thin majority of only 684 votes. The LDF also lost the Mavelikkara seat by a slender margin.

But the ominous development, which must cause grave concern to the secular parties has been that the BJP has succeeded in opening its account from Kerala. Actor-turned politician Suresh Gopi created history by winning from the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency, helping the BJP to realise its long-standing dream of opening its account in Kerala. He won by a majority of over 74,000 votes, defeating his nearest rival V S Sunil of the CPI. Congress candidate K. Muralidharan came third.

A closer analysis shows that Suresh Gopi’s victory was the result of the massive erosion in the Congress vote. In 2019, TN Prathapan of Congress had won the seat by polling over four lakh votes. Muralidharan managed to poll only 3,28,124 votes – over 84,000 votes less this time. Evidently, there has been cross-voting on a massive scale. The left circles allege the shifting of Congress votes is part of a deal between the BJP and the Congress. If Muralidharan had secured these votes, he would have won hands down. Significantly, Murali had alleged before the polling that both Prathapan and Thrissur district Congress chief Jose Vallur had sabotaged his election. The reason: Prathapan, who was the sitting MP from Thrissur, was mighty miffed on being replaced. The shifting of Congress votes is being attributed to Prathapan’s resentment over being sidelined. The controversy is bound to worsen infighting in the Congress in the State.

LDF performance was also marred by the unexpected defeat of the Kerala Congress(M) – an ally of the CPI(M) – candidate from Kottayam LS seat in central Kerala, which was its stronghold. The seat was wrested by the rival KC(Joseph) faction which is with the UDF. The loss sprang an ugly surprise on the LDF.

In hindsight, it can be concluded that the LDF also lost the battle of perceptions. The Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF) seems to have succeeded in creating – and deepening – the perception that a huge victory for the Congress in necessary to strengthen the battle against the BJP at the national level. The victory, therefore, places a big responsibility on the Congress to shed its past pusillanimity when it comes to battling the BJP and be more aggressive in countering the communal forces. Whether the Congress will muster the courage to play that pivotal role time alone can tell.

The unexpected setback must compel an introspection on the part of the LDF. The front’s leadership has rightly said that it would do so. And they also expressed their confidence of getting over the temporary setback and staging a comeback. They have a chance to do so in the local body elections due next year.

But, the most disturbing development emanating from this election is the inroads the BJP has managed to make in several constituencies. True, the party’s vote percentage has gone up only marginally – from 15 per cent to around 17. But it has succeeded in making its presence felt in many a constituency. For instance, in Attingal, Union Minister V. Muralidharan was able to increase his vote share to over three lakh. Likewise, Sobha Surendran surprised one and all by increasing the party’s votes from 85,000 odd votes in 2019 to over 2.8 lakh this time around. She gave an anxious time to the LDF and the UDF candidates by leading in the early rounds of counting. In Thiruvananthapuram, too, Union Minister Rajiv Chandrasekhar of the BJP put up a spirited fight before losing to Shashi Tharoor of the Congress. Tharoor had to really sweat it out before emerging the winner by a slender margin of over 16,000 votes. The BJP also came first in as many as 11 assembly seats as against the LDF’s lead in only 19 assembly seats. The UDF led in 110 assembly seats – a development that underlines the magnitude of the task the LDF has on its hands.

Percentagewise, the LDF has more or less maintained its earlier position, having lost only 1 per cent of its votes. As for the UDF, despite scoring an impressive victory, the front suffered a loss of five per cent vote percentage. In 2019, the UDF polled 47. 48 per cent of votes and the LDF 36.29 %. NDA’s score was 15.64 per cent. This time UDF secured only 42 per cent votes. On the other hand, the LDF could poll around 35 per cent. As for the BJP, which had predicted that its voting percentage would cross 20 per cent, ended up way below at 17 per cent.

In conclusion, it must be emphasised that there is a paramount need to fight the communal forces with greater vigour and urgency. This is easier said than done. But both the LDF and the UDF cannot shy away from this grim ground reality in Kerala, a state steeped in the secular ethos. That is the most important lesson thrown up by the Lok Sabha election result. The time to bend all secular energies to the task is now. (IPA Service)