As stated in this column earlier, the pending Teesta water sharing issue remains the focal point of Bangladeshi interest. As far as the Bangladeshi common man is concerned, the general feeling is that overall, bilateral relations are very good but, somehow, India has ended up winning more concessions and benefits from its smaller neighbour, whether through the ongoing connectivity projects or bilateral trade.

India’s consistent failure to make available its legally due share of Teesta waters in the North Bangladesh region remains the biggest irritant. Bangladeshis describe this as the ultimate insult that Dhaka has been forced to endure without benefit of any justification, or even a routine statement from Delhi.

The chain of events in India which has led to this impasse is particularly galling to Bangladeshis, no matter what their political affiliation. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s objections have effectively stopped Delhi from dealing fairly with Bangladesh. Banerjee fears that any diversion of the Teesta waters to Bangladesh during the lean winter season would lead to a desertification of North Bengal districts. Most experts share her fears.

Political leaders or commoners, Bangladeshis find it strange that the GoI did not press Banerjee hard enough to make her see reason. After all, Mamata Banerjee is the Chief Minister of one of 29 Indian states, not level in protocol terms with either Modi or Sheikh Hasina. Surely, India’s numerous Constitutional experts and jurists of international repute, could have shown a minimal initiative to appreciate the needs of Bangladesh as well for Teesta waters and talked to the Government of India.

‘What about our northern districts and small rivers that run dry every winter, what about the mounting distress in our agriculture and fishing sectors?’ is a familiar question raised regularly by the Bangladeshi media. The least India could have done is to compensate Bangladesh financially through a special package, a treaty, or some other measure. It has done nothing of the kind, because Bangladesh is a small country and India can get away with it.

Currently, after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, such arguments are being heard anew. Bangladeshi mediapersons covering Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi, questioned Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmood on the issue, asking him whether it would be more difficult now to work out any agreement on Teesta with Banerjee, now that Mamata's Trinamool Congress has emerged stronger after the Lok Sabha elections, defeating Modi’s BJP convincingly. Mahmood's answer was that the two Prime Ministers had met and held talks and India-Bangladesh ties will improve going forward.

With Hasina scheduled to visit Delhi again, later this month or in July, new agreements could be signed including on the issue of renewing/amending the existing provisions of the Farakka Water Sharing Agreement. This could be part of a proposed larger agreement covering in principle all 54 international rivers/streams that run from India into Bangladesh.

Most observers agree that given the hostility Mamata Banerjee reserves for the BJP and its top leaders, there does not seem to be much of a chance of any concessions from West Bengal for Bangladesh. It is more likely that an older proposal for some kind of a reservoir in the Himalayas to store the heavy rainfall during the monsoon in the region to be built at an estimated cost of around $1 billion would be seriously considered.

Since China has already indicated its willingness to help Bangladesh financially and technically to settle the problem of ensuring a steady flow in the Teesta waters through a comprehensive $300 million multi-dimensional scheme, Bangladesh now has an option to look beyond India in working out a final solution.

Will India participate in the proposed Chinese scheme if a proposal comes from Dhaka? Or will the Chinese once more help out Bangladesh in a major way, after it recently helped its smaller neighbour by building the massive new Padma Bridge, which has emerged by all accounts as an economic game-changer in the region? (IPA Service)