Modi's arrogance stands sliced, diced and cut to size by a rejuvenated Congress Party and a determined Samajwadi Party. The BJP can only take solace in the belief that under Modi’s leadership, the NDA government will run for its full five years. Rightwing analysts believe Modi will be able to do it if allies like the Janata Dal-U and Telugu Desam Party stay on course.

Modi is walking a tightrope. Don’t forget, Modi has a Masters in Political Science. And he has experience dealing with political friends and foes. But his 2024 election strategy was beaten hollow. Samajwadi Party and the Congress together wiped the smile off Modi’s face. Muslim voters on the one side and Hindu voters on the other, both appeared to have Modi’s number sized up. But for Modi’s NDA allies, he wouldn’t have been third time Prime Minister — equalling Jawaharlal Nehru’s record.

Modi’s wings have been clipped and he lost face. But the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Lok Sabha and NDA allies don’t mind supporting Hindutva if it suits their politics. That said, Modi will not be in a position to ramrod controversial policies and programmes like the Uniform Civil Code through Parliament. Pro-Congress social media influencers have been warning Modi to be “scared, be very scared”. Janata Dal-U Chief Nitish Kumar and TDP Supremo Chandrababu Naidu have told Modi, he has nothing to worry.

For the time being Modi appears confident. Unlike Manmohan Singh, Modi isn’t facing coalition compulsions. Not when Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu want Centre’s resources to kick-start development of their respective states, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, both of which are poor and in dire need of finances. Modi has sold them the idea of “Viksit Bharat” and has done a good job of it.

Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu might hold the puppet strings, but Modi holds the purse-strings. If Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are at all worried, it’s not the NDA government folding. Their concern is the upcoming Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. These are elections the BJP can ill-afford to lose. If defeated, the NDA government might be looking at amputation and Modi could end up mulling retirement.

But as long as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu do not pull the plug, Modi will remain in power. Besides, it will be naïve to believe that Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah will give up their long-term Hindu nationalistic agenda. The "temporary setback" will be offset with a different governance model. Also, ‘Operation Lotus’ hasn’t been laid to rest. Modi’s campaign-time promise that his third-term will be for “dealing punishment” still rings loud and clear. All that Modi has to do is tweak his strategy — dump the all-encompassing “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”, which the Muslims took advantage of, and replace it with “Jo Saath Usika Vikaas”.

Notably, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has launched a “Family Card” for all UP citizens. The idea is to identify all those who benefited from Modi’s welfare schemes, who all got houses under PM Awaas Yojana and compare with votes cast for BJP, which constituencies BJP lost. The message is loud and clear, no more PM AwaasYojana and gas connections for Muslims.

Appeasement will shift to Hindus. Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA and Rahul Gandhi’s promise of a Caste Census along with fear-mongering that Modi will change the Constitution and do away with reservations if Modi returns to power with a brute “abki baar 400 paar” curtailed Modi in his tracks. The BJP is determined to get its Hindutva votebank restored. It has dawned on Modi that Muslims, Pasmanda or Ashraf, will take all his welfare schemes but will never-never ever vote for the BJP.

The Congress and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh got 92 percent of the Muslim votes and the Dalit were told of what awaited reservation if "dictator" Modi becomes Prime Minister for a third time. Rahul Gandhi invested in a slim copy of the Constitution of India which he flourished at all his rallies. When it came to diversions, the Congress was way ahead and Rahul Gandhi ran circles around a clueless Narendra Modi, who emerged shell-shocked from the experience.

Winning back the BJP’s Hindu votebank is the biggest challenge for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is on a mission. The Yogi and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma are at the vanguard of “no more welfare schemes for Muslims”. The question is, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi be upto challenging his own Muslim appeasement policies? The Hindutva don’t trust Narendra Modi fully anymore. That is the unalloyed fact coming out of election 2024. (IPA Service)