Without going into the history of the events in the last few years, especially the preceding 36 days of the students’ movement against the quota system initially, then turning into an all-out movement for the removal of the Hasina government in the last stage, the signals given by the demonstrators and the military, are contrary India’s interests. India has to be prepared for a period of unstable bilateral relationship.

Let us look at the post-Hasina political scenario in Bangladesh. Right now, the army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has taken over the administration of Bangladesh. He held a meeting on Monday night with the political parties excepting Awami League for the formation of an interim government. The right-wing opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, took part in the discussions. Few names were discussed for the post of the prospective Prime Minister of the interim government. Nobel laureate Dr. Mohammad Yunus is one of them. He seems to be the choice of the Students Group Against Discrimination – the supreme body which has spearheaded the movement against Hasina.

About the emerging political scenario in Bangladesh, there are two pressing questions. Will the army chief really hand over power to the civilians and the political parties as he is saying, or will the Bangladesh army continue to rule either in overt or covert manner, like they did in earlier years on a number of occasions? Then the next, if the army really sets up an interim government and holds elections after a gap, which political parties will be taking part in the fresh elections?

This issue is important for India. As of now, it seems that Sheikh Hasina will not be back to her country for quite some time. Her son told BBC in London that she would leave politics. Most of the family members of Hasina are in London. She is 77. She certainly doesn’t have more political stamina left to fight back the new rulers by rejuvenating the Awami League. If finally she decides to leave politics, what will happen to Awami League? As the supremo of the AL, her word was the law. She ruled both the Party and the Government with a commanding power, depending on her acolytes. Many of them now stand discredited and disempowered. After losing power, Awami League leaders are under physical attack by the demonstrators, mostly egged on by the BNP and Jamaat supporters. Now that they are feeling insecure, worried about the security of their lives and belongings, many of them are trying to cross over to India with their families. In such a scenario, who will rebuild the Awami League, the only political party in Bangladesh which stood by India through the years?

Indications suggest that in the coming days, BNP and Jamaat will be the dominating parties with the present anti-Awami League wave sweeping the country. BNP boycotted the last elections. Jamaat was not allowed by the election authorities, as Jamaat was not agreeable to work within the tenets of Bangladesh constitution. Jamaat has its own party constitution which it takes as supreme. Even now, the situation remains the same. If Jamaat has to participate in the elections, it has to agree to abide by the present Bangladesh constitution, or the Bangladesh constitution will have to be amended to facilitate the participation of Jamaat. The situation still remains hazy.

Another issue is the role of the Students Group Against Discrimination. On Monday, the group said that they are not in favour of military participation in the interim government. They want participation of civil society organisations. Are the representatives of the Students Group interested in sharing power? If so, in what form? This Group has already said that the Awami League should not be included. They are seeking trial for Awami League leaders and student leaders of its party wing who attacked them during demonstrations. That way, there will be a big divide in Bangladesh now between the Awami League and the rest.

For India, the issue of big concern is the security of 13 million Hindus residing in Bangladesh, out of the total population of nearly180 million. The minority community is always the target of attack when any anti-India movement starts in the country. The latest massive demonstrations had definite anti-India bias, and now with the exit of Sheikh Hasina and disorganization of Awami League, there are reasons for the Hindus to feel insecure. The primary task of the Indian government is to ensure the security of the Hindus. If for any reason, exodus starts, it will have no end. Prime Minister Modi has to ensure the safety of the Hindus by talking to the army as also a few foreign countries who can influence the new rulers of Bangladesh. This is the most urgent task at the moment for India.

Besides, India has to see that the bilateral economic relations are not disturbed as a result of the regime change. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner with the size of bilateral trade put at US$ 12.9 billion in 2023-24.India’s exports to Bangladesh total US$ 11 billion. Indian companies as also the Indian government have made big investments in Bangladesh. Very recently, Bangladesh agreed to a massive Teesta project in collaboration with India denying the offer from China. There is all round collaboration in connectivity both in road and waterways. All these are in the interest of Bangladesh. These should be vigorously pursued and India should be open to more investments in Bangladesh, if the new government is open to the prospect.

The fact is that India is now in back foot in Bangladesh in terms of diplomatic initiatives. China will like to take this turmoil as an opportunity to push for its own set of discussed projects on the new rulers in Bangladesh, which Hasina had recently refused. India has to be alert, vigilant but certainly pro-active to see that its major interests are protected in Bangladesh. South Block has to closely monitor the developments and move with caution. But of all tasks, the primary one is to ensure the security of the minorities in Bangladesh at the moment. (IPA Service)