Let us assess some signals from the latest statements and actions of the 17-member interim government led by the Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus along with some important events that took place in the days since August 5. First, the BNP supremo Khaleda Zia has been released and she has started discussions with her party colleagues about reorganization of BNP to enable it to play the leading role in influencing the interim government. She has asked her followers to be battle-ready for the coming elections to take over power. Though BNP officially is not in the interim government, the BNP leadership had discussions with some members of the interim government about how to go about in the present situation.

Secondly, despite all the assurances given by the interim government about ensuring law and order in the districts, the situation is that the police administration has become demoralized. In the districts, the BNP and Jamaat are taking advantage of the present anti- Awami League sentiments and targeting the Awami League workers without any obstruction by the law and order agencies. In such a situation, fundamentalist elements are attacking hindus in some places, but its intensity has been combated due to the organized resistance by the minority organisations along with the students and liberal section of the civic society. The interim government has to infuse morale in the police administration immediately so that they act impartially and have the courage to rake action against the communal elements who are now trying to be closer to the interim government.

The main opposition party to erstwhile Hasina Government BNP is seen as a Party with anti-India views but that was more due to their prism that the Awami League is aligned to India and Sheikh Hasina acts in the interests of the Indian government. BNP has many communal elements but overall it is a right party which can function in parliamentary democracy as a player. The BNP is not a fundamentalist party. India can deal with the party despite differences in approach.

The main problem for Bangladesh politics is the strengthening of Jamaar E Islami as a result of the fall of the Hasina government and the suddenly political power going to anti-Awami League organisations. Jamaat’s electoral support base is small, it is estimated at only 4 per cent but it is cadre-based and ideologically orthodox. Jamaat has big financial muscle due to funds received from many religious foundations of Muslim countries, mainly Saudi Arabia. During Awami League rule, Hasina stopped some of the routes of funds. Those will be reopened now and Jamaat will again be flush with funds. The controlling of Jamaat has to be one of the major activities of the interim government if it really wants to ensure security to the 13 million minorities in Bangladesh out of its 175 million population.

Now what about the Awami League? Awami League is discredited now, but the party has the biggest support base who are lying low now. As of now, the new government is trying to proceed without any Awami League participation. In most of the administrating wings as also in judiciary and in financial sector, the top executives known to be close with Hasina have been asked to resign. Many have done. It is nothing short of cleansing process. This will continue as the head Dr. Yunus himself was a big victim of Hasina’s persecution and he cannot forget that.

Sheikh Hasina just said that she would go back to Bangladesh and Awami League will fight elections. Earlier, her son said that she would leave politics. It seems that the Awami League leaders of Bangladesh who are still want to fight have persuaded her to change her earlier decision. It is a fact that it would be difficult for AL to emerge as a formidable party without her leading it. But if even Hasina goes to Bangladesh leaving Delhi, there is every possibility that she will be arrested and be faced with even more stiffer punishment that the new Bangladeshi government may like to impose on her. Already, a case has been registered in the court in Bangladesh implicating her for murders. It is quite possible Bangladesh will not allow her to remain free and without her at the helm, Awami League will not be able to emerge as a strong force.

Now what about the third force in Bangladeshi politics? Are the students who are talking of keeping out political parties, ready to take lead in forming a third front of progressive, non-communal forces outside the established political parties in the country? This is a big question. Bangladesh has a large number of left-wing parties. They are all fringe parties, faction-ridden, have little base of their own, but they have good influence among the academic community and cultural world. Some sources say that Dr. Yunus may float a new party before the elections. It is not sure whether at the age of 84, Dr. Yunus will take that risk. Much of his move will depend on how the US strategists see the future.

Last week, Awami League sources said that Sheikh Hasina mentioned that she was ousted because she refused to hand over St. Martins Islands of Chittagong in Bay of Bengal to the US for use as a base. She said that she would have stayed if she accepted the US offer. Certainly this was not the only factor for her ouster which took place due to mass upsurge, but there are reasons to believe that the US had a role. US and the western nations prefer BNP to the more secular Awami League. Ousted for prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan said the same thing about US intervention in 2022 regime change. In Pakistan also, the situation developed on its own but the US acted as a facilitator.

In the coming days, the US will be certainly playing its role as per its Asia-Pacific strategy to dominate Bangladesh and influence the course of events accordingly. China will act as a secondary player. Whether both the superpowers will be interested in having a free and fair elections with the participation of Hasina and Awami League, that has to be seen. For the time being, India should monitor the developments from a distance. The only task for New Delhi is to seek all help even from UN to ensure the security of the minority Hindus in Bangladesh. (IPA Service)