The most recent election in the Union Territory was Lok Sabha Election 2024 held in 5 phases from April 19 to May 20 for the five constituencies that is left after the split of the state in August 2019 and carving out of one Lok Sabha Constituency for the Union Territory of Ladakh. BJP has won two – Udhampur and Jammu, while Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won two – Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha Constituencies. One seat – Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency was won by an independent candidate Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, who was under arrest for advocating Kashmiri separatism.

The victory of Engineer Rashid has been a matter of great concern for India, since he had secured a significant victory over former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of JKNC with a huge margin of over 2.04 lakh votes which comes to 19.75 per cent. He won despite facing imprisonment on terror funding charges, which underscores the electorate’s general psyche about the question of ‘separatism in the region’. If the trend continues it may directly affect the election outcome of 18 legislative assembly constituencies falling under the Baramulla Lok Sabha Constituency.

There is an additional reason for concern because the looser former Chief Minister Omar Abdulla of JKNC has already announced that if his party comes to power, it would pass a resolution in the Legislative Assembly against the abrogation of Article 370 and abolishment of article 35 A of the Constitution of India. It should be noted that Article 370 gave autonomy and special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and Article 35 A empowered the Jammu and Kashmir state’s legislature to define “permanent residents” of the state and provide special rights and privileges to them.

Omar Abdullahs statement can’t be taken lightly in the light of the outcome of Lok Sabha Election 2024, which showed that his party JKNC had gained lead in 36 assembly segments out of 90 in the UT’s legislative assembly, the largest among all political parties. It is especially noteworthy since JKNC had leads on only 15 seats in 2014 legislative assembly election when the Jammu and Kashmir was a state with 87 seats. Out of those 4 have gone to Ladakh, and in place of the rest 83 seats, the UT of Jammu and Kashmir has 90 seats after the delimitation order of May 2022.

JKNC was part of INDIA bloc during the Lok Sabha Election 2024. The Congress had gained lead on 7 seats and Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party had on 5 assembly segments. Thus, in Total, INDIA bloc had gained lead on 48 seats out of 90. If this trend continues INDIA bloc will have majority in the legislative assembly of Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference had gained lead on only 1 seat.

As for the share of votes, there was a swing of 14.09 per cent of votes in favour of JKNC in the Lok Sabha election 2024. There was also a swing of votes of 4.91 per cent in favour of JKPDP, but there was a swing against the Congress of 9.92 per cent. This shows the complexity within the INDIA alliance for its continuance and sharing of seats. JKNC has announced in February 2024, and has now repeated that the party will go solo in the assembly election and there will not be any pre-poll alliance. JKPDP had also announced in April 2024 to go solo in legislative assembly election.

It is a significand development since it is disintegration of INDIA bloc, nothing less in J &K However, there is also a People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) that aims at restoration of Article 370 and Article 35 A of the Constitution of India. The second Gupkar declaration of August 2020 was signed by 7 political parties which included JKNC, JKPDP, CPI(M), JKPC, ANC, INC, and JKPM. INC had denied their involvement with PAGD on November 2020. JKPC left it in January 2021, and JKPM left it in July 2022. Only four parties – JKNC, JKPDP, CPI(M), and JKANC – are left in PAGD. Though they are likely to contest the election on their own, there is very likelihood of the issue of restoration of Article 370 and 35 A to remain a major issue.

A prospect of INDIA bloc’s and PAGD’s disintegration looming large may thus enthuse the BJP and its central leadership including PM Narendra Modi. They have much more to be concerned. Apart from the elections to be conducted under the shadow of guns that has brought a big challenge for the Centre, they have also great political concerns.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 result has shown the there was a big 23.13 per cent of swing against the BJP. Moreover, the party has gained lead on only 29 assembly segments in 2024, as against 25 in the assembly election last held in 2014. The party had won two Lok Sabha seats where lies 36 assembly constituencies. They hope to win not only majority of these but also from the entire Jammu region that has 43 legislative assembly constituencies out of 90 in the UT’s assembly.

BJP hopes to form government in the state, chiefly because the INDIA bloc and Gupkar parties are not united. INDIA bloc on the other hand is confident of having post-poll alliance and form its government. However, the election may spring up surprises in terms of separatists winning several seats, as we have seen in the victory of Engineer Rashid in the Lok Sabha election 2024. (IPA Service)