Signs of proper civil administration and the public’s confidence in it are virtually missing across the state, CPI’s state secretary L Thoiren told IPA while giving his assessment of the prevailing situation. Extraordinary deployment of security forces bears testimony to the state administration’s lack of confidence in itself. Moreover, if the state machinery is satisfied that the law and order position is steadily improving why is it not making any move to ensure safe passage for the thousands of people forced to live in relief camps to their places of dwelling.

According to observers, though the BJP central leadership is counting heavily on chief minister N Biren Singh, which many believe is because of BJP’s north-east strongman Himanta Biswa Sarma’s support, politically the chief minister’s position has weakened as the ruling side, which includes Naga People’s Front (NPF), failed to defend the state’s two Lok Sabha seats. Congress won both the seats – Inner Manipur from BJP and Outer Manipur from NPF.

The BJP central leadership’s weakness is that they are unable to find a suitable successor to Singh. They are also not in a position to ignore the Assam chief minister’s counselling in favour of Singh. As a result, Singh remains indispensable. But, at the Centre Union home minister Amit Shah is calling the shots; thereby limiting Singh’s authority as chief minister to a great extent. In a sense, he is paying some price for losing the state’s two Lok Sabha seats, say people well-versed with the political complexities of north-eastern states. Adding to the woes of the state administration is the regular inflows from Myanmar with which Manipur has a long border. Ground realities in the neighbouring country over the last several years have been aggravating the influx problem, sources pointed out.

According to government figures as of May 3, 2024, when the ethnic violence had crossed one year, 221 people had been killed, over 60,000 people had been displaced, over a thousand were injured, 32 persons were detected missing, 4,800 houses had been burnt and nearly 400 religious structures, which included temples and churches, had been vandalised.

Contrary to the Prime Minister’s suggestion that hope for peace is visible, political activists say that though major incidents of ethnic violence have not occurred in recent days yet it won’t be exaggeration to suggest that mistrust between Meities and Kuki-Zo tribal communities bordering on animosity persists. It is in this context, they cite the state machinery’s repeated pleas to New Delhi for withdrawal of the Suspension of Operation (SoO) with certain ultra groups for “violation of the accord’s ground rules”. The termination proposal has the backing of the Manipur State Assembly. The agreement has within its ambit 25 armed Kuki ultra groups, out of a total of 30 plus insurgent groups in Manipur. It was sealed on August 22, 2008 by listed groups with both New Delhi and the Manipur government. It was renewed at pre-determined intervals. On March 10, 2023, the state government withdrew from the three-party deal with two groups – Kuki National Army and Zomi Revolutionary Army – accusing them of provoking illegal forest encroachers to resort to agitation.

In recent weeks the chief minister, armed with the Assembly approval, has stepped up his demand for termination of SoO which was originally intended to facilitate restoration of peace and commencement of dialogue for a political settlement after the militant organisations climbed down from their demand a separate Kuki state and opt for a Kukiland territorial council. Since the basic objective of restoring peace and tranquillity has remained a far cry despite the lapse of 15 years since SoO was inked, the state government is repeatedly urging the Centre for a break with the SoO agreement.

The two-day visit a week back to Imphal of Chief of the Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi has given rise to speculation that the Centre is inclined to concede the state government’s repeated demand for termination of SoO. General Dwivedi was programmed also to visit kangpokpi, Churachandpur and border town of Moreh but could not do so due to inclement weather. As reports suggest, he had intensive discussions with the chief minister and top officials with reference to maps and documents handed over to him by the chief minister.

If indeed SoO is terminated, as a reaction the ultra groups within its ambit may start fresh trouble and, therefore, a limited intervention by the Army may be found unavoidable. Singh indicated after the parleys with the General that he is hopeful of the Centre considering the demand seriously this time round. Asked about the Army chief’s visit, CPM’s state secretary Khetrimayum Santa told IPA there must be some specific reasons. The other point Santa made is that people-centric political activity of parties remains difficult in the given circumstances. (IPA Service)