The main reason for his losing the credibility is his frequent somersaults. A common perception moves around the political circle that to continue to be in power, he can go to any extent and can have entente even with the devil. The manner in which he is being insulted by the Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, is testimony to it.

Narendra Modi while taking over as the prime minister for the third time, has promised him to accede to his demand for special status to Bihar and to provide some special financial economic package. But it never materialised. Barring Lalan Singh, no other MP of his party was given any ministerial berth. Technically Nitish claims that Lalan was made the minister at his initiative, but the fact is it was the part of Amit Shah design to create a parallel power centre in the JD(U) that saw Lalan being inducted in the council of ministers.

A month back, Nitish was once again moving closer for a fresh somersault. But this could not materialise. A significant number of JD(U) MPs, out of 12, have pledged their support to Modi-Shah. It was a major shocker for Nitish. He had to retreat. Of course Nitish withdrawing support to Modi might have posed problem for him also. Nitish would have been a biggest loser.

For giving a shape to his design, he had even met Tejashvi Yadav and RJD chief Lalu Yadav, but it was the vulnerability of the political situation that forced him to restrain. This susceptibility of Nitish prompted Tejashvi to question credibility of Nitish Kumar's commitments, saying “his promises hold ‘no value’ and that he has ‘lost the trust’ of the people.” He recounted the incident where Kumar, in the presence of his MLAs, apologized with folded hands for aligning with the BJP-led NDA. However, Tejashwi firmly ruled out any future alliances between the RJD and Nitish's JDU.

This nature of comment coming from Tejashvi, who till other day addressed Nitish as Chacha (uncle), speaks volume of loss of his credibility. Tejashwi pointed out “His oath has no value. No one trusts him, as he may change his mind anytime. Twice we took pity on him and gave him life and both times he showed his real form. This time there is no meaning". He said: Nitish's inconsistency and tendency to change political allegiances has made his commitments unreliable. He said that the RJD had given the Bihar CM multiple chances in the past, but each time, Kumar revealed his true nature”.

The situation has come to such a stage that people are no more willing to take his words seriously. On 6 September 2024, while attending a public event alongside Union Health Minister JP Nadda, he dismissed speculation about reuniting with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). He stated he had "made a mistake twice" by aligning with them and would not repeat it. But the experts and political analysts are not ready to subscribe to what he said. One of them made a cryptic comment: “it might be his move for future somersault” In fact when he speaks a fact also, that is not trusted.

Nitish has virtually lost his control on state bureaucracy and police. Unprecedented incidents of violence have been taking place even in the state capital, Patna. Only on September 9, Tejashvi took a swipe at Nitish hat there was no law and order in the state and criminals have taken over the state. Criminals operate without fear of the police, and incidents of murder, bank robberies, and kidnappings have become commonplace.

None has imagined that the person who was nicknamed as “sushan babu” would be described by the same people, just within a year, as “kushan babu”. Tejashvi quipped: "Everything he once earned in politics is now lost. His era is over.”

The Modi-Shah duo are not in the mood to precipitate the situation/. The reason is they have no leader who can be presented as the party’s face. The BJP is also not in the mood to pull the rag. They want to give some more time and space to him as his continuation in power would further deplete his EBC and Mahadalit support base. The EBC category comprising 130 small caste groups like Dhanuks, Kumhars, Kahars, Noniyas, Kewats, Nais, Mallahs, Telis and Tatmas, makes up 36% of Bihar’s electorate, as per the recent caste survey. Along with this group, Nitish was backed by support from his Kurmi-Koeri (Kushwaha) community. Kurmis are 2.9% of Bihar’s electorate and Koeris 4.2%. The CM also benefitted from the Mahadalit category comprising 21 castes that he helped create. Mahadalits account for some 10% of the state’s total vote.

Yet another factor the party has no woman leader of stature who can entice the voters. Nitish has assiduously prepared his support base amongst the women by providing reservation, not only in jobs but also in politics. Of late, women have become an important factor in elections. A large number of women came out to vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and this year's assembly polls. This time in Bihar assembly elections, women voters outnumbered their male counterparts. In recent Lok Sabha election, women voted more than men in all the five phases. (IPA Service)