Prime Minister Modi’s first 100 days fared “poor”, wrote the French newspaper Le Monde. Prime Minister Modi faces a string of other electoral tests before this year is history. There’s the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections along with the 10 UP assembly bypolls. There is also the Jharkhand assembly elections and, for the first time in a decade, Modi appeared poll-tired.

Has the Modi-Shah election juggernaut lost steam? On September 18, J&K voters cast their votes for Phase-1 of the J&K assembly elections. Reports have been incessantly holding forth that these J&K elections, the first proper ones in 10 years, will see the rebirth of Article 370 and 35 if the National Conference comes to power.

The big test for Union Home Minister Amit Shah is to see that Article 370 remains abrogated. Modi and Shah do not want the “Abdullahs winning.” The National Conference and the Congress are fighting these elections in alliance and LoP Rahul Gandhi was in the Valley talking of “Mohabbat Ki Dukaan”, and reinstating statehood for J&K.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first 100 days did not dwell on J&K too much. The NC-Congress alliance promised to resume trade with Pakistan through multiple avenues even as the Indian Army was hard-pressed fighting Pakistan-trained terrorists, battle-hardened hordes moved from Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan in the west to the LoC in the east.

Soldiers and officers of the Indian Army are regularly getting killed and maimed in Jammu. It’s an old story but Modi’s first 100 days saw frequent deaths of Indian soldiers in the Jammu area. The feeling one got was that Modi’s NDA government wasn't interested in taking the Pak Army head on or resuming talks with the enemy Pakistan.

The Modi government's near-lack of a Pakistan policy has been Prime Minister Narendra Modi's doing. Thanks to the machinations of the Pak Army, Pakistan-trained terrorists never stopped infiltrating into J&K and it never crossed the newly-installed BJP-led NDA government to act hard and fast.

Pakistan should have been taught a lesson at the earliest, at least now, right in the middle of Modi’s first 100 days. It galls that the Pakistan-trained terrorists know the terrain in Jammu far better than the Indian Army does.

"Pakistan" never crossed the Modi government’s mind in its first two terms and not now, during the first 100 days of Modi's third term. Modi appears locked in with the Ukraine-Russia war and casualties of Indian Army troops in the forests of Jammu does not rock him into action. The Pakistani-trained terrorists and the Pak Army ensured that the Kashmir Valley got a much-needed break, while Jammu bled soldiers. The enemy across the border wants a regime-change in J&K.

What happens if the NC-Congress alliance wins the state. Then, statehood will be top of the agenda for the new government. What about Article 370 and '35'? Can a state government abrogate Shah's abrogation of Article 370, aren't such constitutional matters the preserve of the Central government? Will J&K return to stone-pelting and will the Modi government at least now clarify its stand?

The BJP has been rather sketchy about its plans for Jammu & Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370. Rahul Gandhi did not mention Article 370 during his visit to the Valley, limiting himself to the promise of restoring statehood for Jammu & Kashmir. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in J&K after Rahul Gandhi came and went and Modi spoke as if the BJP will win J&K without breaking much sweat?

As for the French, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoy a rare camaraderie. So much so, Modi and Macron, both got only "half-victories" in elections held in both countries. Also, Macron faces a bleak future and Modi could also end up in hot waters if the BJP loses the upcoming assembly elections and the UP bypolls.

Modi's "half-victory" in the Lok Sabha elections brought the Bharatiya Janata Party to its knees, forcing Prime Minister Modi to cut a sorry figure. Modi's alliance partners, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, have 'fickle' for their middle names and they're "unpredictable regional leaders."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "next 100-days" will be under the radar and Modi requires victories on the national and international stage to survive. Can the BJP scrape through in Haryana, and win Maharashtra? Will Modi and Shah manage electoral victory in Jammu & Kashmir to prevent the return of Article 370?

The problem is, the NDA government's continuation depends on the whims and fancies of Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party. Modi's first 100 days were marked by several U-turns. Going forward the Wakf Board Amendment Bill 2024 and the 'Secular Civil Code' will be major challenges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is walking a very tight tightrope and his second 100 days will either make him, or break him. Which will it be? (IPA Service)