Now that the Lok Sabha elections are over and the new UPA government is in place, attention is already turning to the next big challenge for the Congress: winning the Maharashtra Assembly polls. The Congress is pleasantly surprised at the pro-party undercurrent in the state and the Maharashtra Nav Nirman Sena's acting as the spoiler for the Shiv Sena-BJP combine which benefited the NCP-Congress alliance. The Congress emerged as the biggest player in the state winning 17 out of the 26 seats it contested while the NCP bagged only eight seats although its vote share went up. This has given a big boost to the local Congress leaders who now demand that the party should dump NCP.

Two Union Ministers who are also Congress Working Committee members - Vilas Rao Deshmukh and Prithviraj Chavan- have sent shivers down the NCP camp with their public statements in the past few days that the Congress should go it alone in the Assembly polls. Deshmukh, whose relations with Pawar are frosty, has fired the first salvo by claiming that the Congress would have won more seats in the Lok Sabha polls if it had gone solo, and accused the NCP of sabotaging the chances of Congress. Another influential minister, Prithviraj Chavan, also echoed similar sentiments. The bitter war of words is likely to intensify as the polls draw near.

The 'Ekla Chalo” slogan is based on the NCP- Congress competition for political supremacy in the state. The Sena is licking its wounds; the BJP has no state-level leadership; relations between the two parties are not smooth either. Others see this as bargaining posture as both the NCP and the Congress know that if they fight alone, the beneficiary would be the Sena- BJP combine.

The NCP forged an alliance with the Congress for the 2004 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. In 1999, when the NCP was born, the two parties fought separately but later formed the government together. Strangely, they did not have an alliance for the local-self government polls. In 2009, the two parties were pre-poll allies. The NCP-Congress alliance has always been shaky for the simple reason that they have nothing in common: power is the only cement that glues the tie-up. The relations between even the top leaders of the two parties has not been very comfortable as neither Sonia Gandhi nor Sharad Pawar has forgotten the reason for the birth of the NCP.

What is the Congress game plan? The first thing is to make efforts to go it alone and dump the NCP. The second is to further weaken Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar. After the 2009 polls, the NCP has emerged as the junior party giving way to the Congress, Shiv Sena and the BJP. Although the NCP had gained hugely in its vote share, its seats have come down much to the disappointment of Pawar who was dreaming of becoming the Prime Minister. Moreover, even at the Centre, the Congress has brought in another strong Maratha leader, Vilas Rao Deshmukh, to counter Pawar. The Congress has given important portfolios to Sushil Kumar Shinde, Prithviraj Chavan, Mukul Wasnik and Gurudas Kamat - all Pawar baiters. Pawar has his tasks cut out. He has to show results both at the Centre and in the state. Every one is watching his Agriculture Ministry. If there is a good monsoon, which is being predicted, he will do well and the prices will come down. Secondly, the number of farmer's suicide may also come down. Moreover, to keep up his strongman image, Pawar also has to improve his new constituency, Madha, and take up development works.

The third is to try and split the NCP. There could be moves to split the NCP in the coming weeks as the NCP morale is down. Pawar's main challenge is to keep his flock together; this can be done only if the NCP shows better results in the Assembly elections.

The fourth is to make efforts to merge the NCP with the Congress. Pawar's declining health has caused concern to his partymen although he has built up leadership in the NCP like Chagan Bhujbal, R.R. Patil and Ajit Pawar. His daughter, Supriya Sule, is being groomed to take over. This is a big decision and Pawar does not want merger at this point of time. He would fight for the survival of the NCP one more time.

The fifth is to make the Sena-BJP combine weaker. In fact, in many constituencies including the Sena strongholds in Mumbai, the Congress candidates managed to scrape through just because of the split in the Hindutva votes caused by the MNS's playing the spoiler. All MNS candidates managed to poll over 100,000 votes each, eating into the base of the Sena-BJP. Apart from coming second in two of the dozen seats the MNS contested, the party did well in 47 of the 72 Assembly segments, coming first in 14.The biggest beneficiary of this was the Congress and the NCP, many of whose candidates won with margins of a few thousands. Therefore, both the Congress and the NCP may woo Raj Thackeray.

The Maharashtra poll scene will become clearer in the next few weeks. However, success for both the Congress and the NCP depends on the understanding between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and NCP chief Sharad Pawar. As of now, the Congress is in a commanding position. However, that does not mean that Pawar will lose out because even today he is the tallest leader in the state. The stakes are high for Pawar, who will use all his political skill to keep the NCP afloat. (IPA Service)