It is an open secret that no SP leader of any worth can underscore the political line and policy of the party except the supremo Akhilesh. Naturally the announcement of Rajendra Chaudhary, a close associate of Akhilesh Yadav, that the SP would contest seven out of the nine seats, while Congress being left two seats, sends a clear message that Akhilesh is unwilling to consider the request of the state leaders to give them four seats out of nine going to by elections.

Though SP leadership claims that the INDIA alliance remains intact and that both parties will contest the elections together with strength, a group of seven senior leaders have sent urgent communique to Rahul Gandhi and also to Priyanka Gandhi to refrain from contesting the bypolls and not to undertake campaign for the INDIA bloc candidates. These leaders are quite cut up at the coercive method applied by Akhilesh to bully the Congress.

They even pointed out that he even has no admiration for Rahul Gandhi. According to them the INDIA bloc would not have won 43 Lok Sabha seats if Rahul had not taken the lead, raised the issue of caste census and identified the INDIA bloc with the aspirations of the poor, Dalits and EBC. They argue that Akhilesh had been fighting against the BJP, but never in the past elections, his party could perform in such a splendid manner. He ought to not forget that the charisma of Rahul helped SP.

According to the sources, the Congress displeased with the SP's offer of only two seats out of the nine has taken the dissenting note seriously and is contemplating not fielding any candidates, leaving all nine seats for the SP. The UP Congress leaders are of the firm view that Akhilesh had planned his moves just after the debacle of Congress in Haryana elections. They recall that just the very next day of the announcement of Haryana result, SP had made it known that it would contest all the seats in the by elections. Akhilesh even did not show the courtesy of discussing the issue with the Congress leadership.

Nevertheless the UP Congress President Ajay Rai is hopeful that some solution will be worked out: "We will field our candidates in the UP bypolls. Discussions are ongoing with the SP for five seats, and the final decision will be taken by the national leadership." What has come as rude shock to the Congress is the unilateral announcement of candidates by the SP leadership.

SP sources however confide that at two least factors have forced Akhilesh to harden its stand towards Congress, especially Rahul. Akhilesh nursed that Rahul at least allot a few seats to SP in Haryana election. Nevertheless, it was sidelined. After the results were announced, some SP leaders had remarked that even if no seat was allotted to the party, the Congress should have invited Akhilesh Yadav to campaign. But Congress ignored him.

The second factor is; through this action, Akhilesh intends to create pressure on Congress to give it at least 20 seats in Maharashtra assembly elections. Akhilesh is sure that neither Sharad Pawar nor Uddhav Thackeray would concede seats from their share, obviously it would be safe to goad Congress and make it concede its demand. Akhilesh did not want any repeat of Madhya Pradesh scenario, where the Congress ignored SP in polls.

In Mumbai city alone, the population of OBC and other castes who have migrated from UP is nearly 10 lakhs. They are decisive voters. The SP had one legislator in Maharashtra, Abu Azmi. He has in fact sought permission from Akhilesh Yadav to contest as many seats as possible in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections. He reminded the NCP (SP), Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress that it was getting late, and it was about time for them to collectively declare the seats the parties of the alliance would be contesting. A senior SP leader made it plain that if the Congress gives importance to the SP in Maharashtra, the effects will be seen in Uttar Pradesh as well.

Punching Congress bag has become the only past time priority for the INDIA bloc leaders. In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut has also been targeting Congress and urging Rahul to sacrifice in the greater interest of the opposition unity and political compulsion to defeat the BJP. The INDIA bloc’s other partners have no responsibility and they do not need to sacrifice.

But one thing the alliance leaders, whether he is Akhilesh or Sanjay, ought to understand that a weak Congress will invite risks and imperil the existence of the regional party. A couple of years back, while speaking in Patna, the BJP president J P Nadda without mincing words had said that the BJP mission was to finish the regional parties. Yet another question these leaders ought to reply, before surfacing of Rahul on the political landscape of the country as the prime challenger to the autocratic rule of Narendra Modi, what they had done to check his onslaught.

There is no denying that Rahul’ new narrative has fired the imagination of the Dalits and OBCs in the state. This was clearly manifest in the Lok Sabha elections. Dalit population in Uttar Pradesh (UP) is about 21.5% of the state's population. In 2011, UP had the highest percentage of Scheduled Caste (SC) population among the four states that accounted for almost half of India's total SC population. The population of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in Uttar Pradesh is estimated to be over 50% of the state's total population. The Hukum Singh committee, set up by the state government in 2001, estimates the OBC population to be 7.56 crore. OBCs in the urban parts of the state comprise between 37 per cent and 41 per cent.

The 505-page report says that there are 1.76 crore OBCs (overall 37 per cent), 2.4 crore members of general category, including Muslims (49 per cent), 65 lakh SCs (14 per cent) and 1.03 lakh STs. Significantly the commission stated that the economic condition of the OBCs is not good and the community continues to face both social and educational barriers, and has recommended 27 per cent reservation. Rahul through his counter narrative has been highlighting this issue and demanding for caste census, which Modi and Amit Shah are unwilling to concede.

The INDIA bloc leaders must not adopt a rigid attitude towards Congress. They must understand the compulsions of real politiks. Any message that the INDIA bloc leaders are not sincere in their fight against rightist forces would simply erode the trust of these people in INDIA bloc and prove to be counterproductive.

Going by the developments in the Congress, its top leaders are willing to short out the issue at the earliest. But this will certainly not repair the damage that Akhilesh and his SP leaders would cause to the interest of the dalits, OBCs and proletariats. It was the adverse campaigning by some INDIA leaders in Haryana that forced a section of Dalits to shift their allegiance to BJP in certain pockets. Resorting to this tactics proved to be damaging to all of them. Neither the AAP nor the SP candidates, contesting as independents, benefitted.

Akhilesh should not forget that bypolls to 9 assembly seats will be a litmus test for his political credibility and maturity. Failure of SP to win all the seats it is contesting will not only eclipse his own personal image, but would witness emergence of a more brute ruler in Yogi Adityanath, who armed with peoples’ mandate will resort to more intense coercive methods to win 2027 assembly elections. (IPA Service)