If leader of the Opposition and Nandigram BJP MLA Suvendu Adhikari sought to extend his party 's support to the participants of the agitation, former state party chief Dilip Ghosh made unflattering remarks about the hunger strikers. With these two senior leaders clearly not being on the same page, the sincerity of the saffron camp towards the junior doctors movement left much room for doubt about BJP's policy on this issue.

As the bypolls draw closer, it is not clear whether the Opposition parties can get any mileage from an incident which rocked West Bengal and the rest of the country. Even if the BJP, bagged 12 seats in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress and the Left appeared to be directionless after their Lok Sabha debacle and big defeat in four by polls later. Only R G Kar doctors movement gave the CPI(M) and the Congress some platform to show their visibility.

It gives the ruling dispensation of Trinamool Congress led by charismatic Mamata Banerjee a leg up. Though the fact remains that her government has so far been unable to deftly tackle the junior doctors agitation which was called off on October21 night at the request of the parents of the deceased doctor.

The state's ruling dispensation got a breather from withdrawal of the junior doctors stir. But before the doctors stir was withdrawn, TMC was the first among the contestants of the by polls to announce the party’s list of candidates showing thereby that its of election machinery has not gathered any flab.

Resignation of the MLAs from the constituencies of Naihati, Haroa, Taldangra, Medinipur, Setai and Madarihat to contest in the Lok Sabha elections has necessitated these by-elections. Of these, five seats were held by TMC legislators while Madarihat was represented by a BJP MLA.

The Left has bagged around five per cent votes in the six Assembly constituencies going to by polls in the assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.. On the other hand, votes of the BJP candidate stood next to the winning nominee of the TMC indicating the shape of things to come when the results of the bypolls are declared.

If BJP won Madarihat Assembly segment in 2021assembly elections, the saffron camp is threatened by internal dissension. Differences have reported to have surfaced between Alipurduar BJP MP Manoj Tippa and the state leadership slimming the chances of retaining the seat.

Be in Setai in Coochbehar Lok Sabha in north Bengal or Taldangra in Bankura parliamentary segment in south Bengal, the ruling dispensation Trinamool Congress had substantial leads in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The situation is similar at Haroa, Naihati and Midnapur.

At Haroa within Basirhat Lok Sabha in North-24-Parganas which was swept by Trinamool Congress, CPI(M)'s Nirapada Sardar bagged 7000 odd votes, the BJP contestant Rekha Patra had more than 30,000 votes in her kitty. At Naihati, while BJP nominee Arjun Singh had around 60,000 votes, CPI(M) candidate Debdoot Ghosh polled 14, 925 votes leaving a grim picture of the erosion of Left influence in what had once been the party’s pocket borough.

The sob story of the Opposition continued in Midnapur. The CPI nominee polled 5 per cent votes a figure much lower than the votes cast in favour of the BJP candidate.

The Forward Bloc nominee is contesting from Sitai. While RSP candidate is the Left Front nominee in Madarihat. The CP(M) is contesting only from Taldangra and CPI (ML) Liberation will contest from Naihati.

The Left is going it alone after years of electoral alliance with Congress. The state Congress chief, Subhankar Sarkar had called up the Left Front chairman Biman Bose for talks on Madarihat and Setai. But the LF had decided on the candidates by then and hapless Congress is on its own in this by-election. Lack of alacrity on part of the Congress came in the way of a Left-Congress alliance in the bypolls, it was learnt from LF sources.

A casual look will reveal that the Trinamool Congress government in West Bengal was on a backfoot over the RG Kar incident, while the Opposition was out to reap political dividend from it. Undoubtedly the agitation had been vocal and spontaneous. but it had been found to be centred in and around Kolkata.

None of the Assembly segments where the bypolls are scheduled to be held are either within the city or located nearby. Thus it is unlikely that the anger and angst of a sizeable section of the urban middle class have turned the mindset of voters far away from the city against the government.

Many of the voters who will exercise their franchise in the bypolls have been the recipients of the benefits of TMC government schemes like Lakshmir Bhander and Sabuj Sathi over the years. Even as the TMC functionaries feel that their vote bank will remain undented owing to the "dole factor", the Opposition leaders have pinned their hopes on change of heart of what is known in this state as the "committed voters" in the backdrop of the junior doctors' agitation.

The TMC leaders with their massive organizational strength have started the campaign in a big way, the BJP has also started but the campaign is yet to get any tempo. The Left candidates are yet to start as the nominations will be completed by October 25 only. The Congress is in a pathetic position as the party has both organizational and financial problems.

The CPI(M) which ruled the state for consecutive 34 years till 2011 assembly elections, is in a demoralized state despite its visibility after Lok Sabha polls during the doctors strike. The assessment shows that the organized protests of the citizens will have little impact on the by polls. CPI(M) is contesting in only one assembly seat out of the six seats going to polls. The low morale of the CPI(M) is understandable from its eagerness to contest minimum number of seats to avoid the stigma of defeat with forfeiting of security deposits.

It happened in the last four assembly by polls. The party handed over its traditional seat of Naihati to CPI(ML) and Haroa seat to ISF. Despite all efforts, the CPI(M) turnaround is not taking place in Bengal, the party’s voting figures are going down further. Can the coming by polls make any change in fortunes for the Left Front? The results on November 23 will tell. (IPA Service)