Trudeau runs a minority Liberal Party government and his government is being rocked time and again by the opposition Conservatives, which wants to force a federal election. The first no-confidence motion failed after the Conservatives ran afoul of the required number. Their leader Pierre Poilievre couldn’t get the backing of the rest of the opposition parties.

Poilievre tabled his second no-confidence motion the day after, accusing Trudeau of failing Canadians on affordable housing, the cost of living, and crime-related issues. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh refused to support the Conservative motion. Trudeau has been facing growing pressure to resign after nine years at the helm. Without doubt, Trudeau is a drag on the fortunes of the Canadian Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party has been lagging the Conservatives by wide margins in opinion surveys for months. Earlier this year, the Canadian Liberal party lost two by-elections, one in Toronto, and the other in Montreal, both of which were Liberal Party strongholds for years. But for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, Trudeau wouldn't have lived to fight another day.

The NDP has been helping the Liberal party to stay in power since 2021, when Canada held its last federal election. But in September of this year, Jagmeet Singh accused the Liberal Party of being “too weak” to govern. Justin Trudeau is a victim of his own party MPs, 24 of whom have set a deadline for him to throw in the towel and move on.

Trudeau’s crisis is of his own making. The internal political challenge to his rule was on the anvil for months and it didn’t matter how much Trudeau attempted to paper over the unhappiness in the Liberal Party over his leadership, Justin was bound to be told his time was up.

Trudeau was in the closed-door meeting which saw the 24 MPs sign a letter asking Trudeau to resign. The reasons cited included dissatisfaction with his leadership and the Liberal Party’s poor showing in recently held elections. No, Trudeau doesn’t have to leave tomorrow or the day after. He has the option to show the middle finger to the ‘24’.

There is no immediate danger of ouster. But the closed door meeting is significant for its reminder that Justin’s fate lies in the balance. At the end of the day, Trudeau cannot avoid a confrontation. The meeting challenged Justin’s poor leadership and the challenge came a year short of the next election, which has to be held by October of 2025.

That means Trudeau has less than a year to turn the ship around and berth in safe harbour. Is Justin capable of showing leadership where it has been missing? The 24 MPs have no confidence in Trudeau. But Justin was all smiles when the meeting ended, saying the “Liberal Party is strong and united” and that he will be leading the party even after the October 2025 election. His elation didn’t reflect on the faces of the rest of the Liberal Party.

What happened in the meeting was that the MPs told the prime minister the truth and the ground rules from hereon, whether Justin liked it or not. Even Justin’s close allies within the Liberal Party didn’t seem to be touched by Justin’s optimism. For all one cared, Justin Trudeau could have been speaking to himself about himself!

The two by-election losses was the beginning of the no-confidence in Justin Trudeau. Calls for his resignation had since then become routine. The momentum was not with Trudeau. Especially, after polling data reflected the grim truth – Liberals trailing the Conservatives and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh sounding increasingly disagreeable.

It was then that Justin Trudeau went ballistic against India and against the Government of India, targeting Indian diplomats while taking sides with known Khalistan proponents who were given shelter in Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was egged on by the United States, a close ally and a past-master in playing the double-game single-handedly! Did India walk into a US trap?

Anyway, the Liberal Party is trailing the Conservatives in opinion polls and one poll had the Conservatives at 39%, the Liberals at 23% and Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats Party at 21%—if elections were to be held tomorrow, the Conservatives would get a comfortable majority. No wonder the 24 Liberal MPs were jumpy and desperate, one of them even asking Trudeau to “listen to the feedback” and come-up with a “plan”.

What goes for Trudeau is that Canada does not have a mechanism to oust prime ministers. But pressure can be put on a Prime Minister and pressure is mounting. What if the dissident MPs start washing the party’s dirty linen in public? When so many MPs of the Liberal Party discuss their frustrations, there is bound to be pressure. Some party members are threatening to boycott the elections if Trudeau continues to lead the party.

Trudeau still has time to get off his high horse. The internal divisions in the Liberal Party are only giving the Conservatives the chance to up the ante. “The reality is he can’t administer the government because he’s too busy fighting for his job after nine years," Poilievre said. The Conservative leader has dominated opinion polls for over a year.

With infighting adding to Trudeau’s woes, Canadians are talking about the shelf-life of Canadian prime ministers and of the “popular appetite for change”. Most Canadians have tuned Trudeau out, said one wise man, asking what comes naturally to Canadians these days, “What’s next for Trudeau?” Nine years is a long, long honeymoon! (IPA Service)