Under President Joe Biden, US-Bangladesh relations have undergone a significant reset following years of tension. The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, which culminated in the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, led to the establishment of an interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus. Yunus is widely viewed in Washington as a reformist leader due to his vocal criticism of Hasina’s authoritarian governance. This alignment with US interests in promoting democratic values has resulted in a warm reception from the Biden administration, which has swiftly pledged support in the form of development assistance, humanitarian aid, and technical expertise aimed at stabilizing Bangladesh and fostering political and economic reforms.

However, the ascension of Yunus as chief adviser presents a complex challenge for US-Bangladesh relations if Trump were to return to power. Yunus is known for his liberal ideals and established connections with key figures in the Democratic Party, including the Clintons. His open criticism of Trump during the latter’s presidency could hinder any potential collaboration between the two leaders. Trump’s foreign policy is often characterized by a transactional approach, where partnerships are evaluated based on immediate benefits rather than ideological alignments.

Yunus’s progressive stance and opposition to Trump could complicate any future engagement between Washington and Dhaka, potentially shifting US policy away from supporting Yunus’s administration.

Since the establishment of the interim government, the Biden administration has concentrated on ensuring stability and fostering development in Bangladesh. The strategy has centred around bolstering Bangladesh’s resilience through financial aid and humanitarian support, which aligns with a broader vision of cultivating long-term partnerships to maintain influence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in countering Chinese expansion.

In contrast, Trump’s foreign policy framework is generally less inclined toward aid-based partnerships. Known for his scepticism regarding nation-building, Trump would likely prioritize a transactional relationship with Bangladesh focused on trade and countering Chinese influence. Under a Trump administration, US support for humanitarian initiatives and political reform in Bangladesh may be deprioritized, leaving the country to navigate significant economic challenges without the same level of backing it has received under Biden.

During Trump’s first term, economic ties between the US and Bangladesh flourished, with American companies significantly increasing their investments in the country. Bangladesh emerged as an essential trading partner, bolstered by Trump’s focus on trade and economic pragmatism. A second Trump administration might revive this emphasis on trade and investment, although the current economic challenges facing Bangladesh could complicate this dynamic. The country’s recent economic downturn could limit its ability to sustain robust bilateral trade, presenting hurdles for Trump’s trade-centric approach.

Moreover, labour rights issues in Bangladesh may pose additional barriers to investment under a Trump administration. The US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which promotes American investment overseas, requires stringent labour standards for project funding. If Bangladesh does not improve its labour practices, it could miss out on crucial investment opportunities, further straining economic relations.

Another key aspect of Trump’s foreign policy was his aggressive stance on countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. During his presidency, the US viewed Bangladesh as a strategic partner in this effort, emphasizing cooperation in areas such as maritime security and military training. Hasina’s government had managed to balance relations between the US and China, but with Yunus now at the helm, this balance could shift. Yunus may pursue stronger ties with China, potentially leading to friction with a Trump administration that prioritizes alignment with India and countering Chinese influence.

The ideological differences between Yunus and Trump could create a tense diplomatic environment. While Yunus might seek to cultivate a partnership with Beijing, Trump could demand a more cooperative stance from Bangladesh regarding US interests in the region. Should Yunus tilt towards China, it may cool US-Bangladesh relations, impacting Bangladesh’s participation in US-led initiatives aimed at maintaining Indo-Pacific stability.

Despite the potential for a shift in US policy under Trump, there remains a pathway for compromise. Recognizing the importance of US support, Yunus’s administration might aim to reassure Washington that its outreach to China will not undermine its partnership with the United States. By framing its relationship with the US as mutually beneficial, Bangladesh could emphasize that American assistance is crucial for its stability and development, thus reinforcing its position as a reliable partner.

In this context, Bangladesh could also highlight the strategic advantages of maintaining a strong US partnership, which would align with both Washington’s and New Delhi’s interests in regional stability. If Yunus’s government can demonstrate that US investment and aid contribute to a more stable Bangladesh, it may appeal to Trump’s transactional mindset, showcasing the ways in which American support can enhance Bangladesh’s role as a strategic partner. (Arabian Post — IPA Service)