The Scholz coalition has been ruling by taking support of 91 members of FDP and 117 members of Green Party. SPD has its own strength of 207 members. So , in a house of 733 members, the three party coalition had a clear majority. Now with the withdrawal of FDP’s 91 members, the Scholz government has the support of only 324 members as against the needed majority of 367 members.

Right now, in German Parliament, the opposition CDU/CSU has got 196 members while the far right AfD which is a surging force in the latest provincial elections, has 76 seats. The Left group led by Die Linke has got 28 seats while the split away group of Die Linke has got 10 seats. There are eight non-attached members.

Chancellor Scholz has assured to seek no-confidence motion on January 15 next year and seek national elections in March 2025 preponing it from the original schedule of September 28, 2025. The opposition parties, especially CDU are not agreeable to that. They are demanding elections in January next year itself since the present state of instability is bad for the German economy at this stage. The political commentators also share this view since there is little hope of a stable government in Germany even if the Scholz regime wins the no-confidence vote.

Whatever be the decision finally about the date of the next national elections, the political turmoil is going to stay and this has given a fresh opportunity to the far right AfD to expand its base and going to the German people with its campaign plank against refugees and immigrants as also the promise of creating jobs for the German youth, The CDU/CSU which ruled Germany for many years led by prominent chancellors like Angela Merkel is preparing for the coming elections Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader is aspiring to contest for the chancellor’s position. He is trying to see that the elections are held early and the Scholz coalition faces more embarrassment in the coming days so that he can emerge stronger in the election campaign.

Chancellor Scholz needs the support of other opposition leaders to approve his budget and some other immediate issues related to expenditure including defence payments. Merz and other opposition leaders may approve this only with the condition that Scholz will have to call elections in January and not March. This development may force the chancellor to agree to call elections in January next year instead of March planned by him.

In the recent opinion polls, the Christian Democrats did well compared to SPD but the AfD and the left wing BSW did much better. In the latest provincial elections, the AfD increased its vote share along with the BSW. The SPD which was the dominant ruling party in these provinces earlier, is now working for a coalition with other parties to prevent AfD from taking reign of the state governments.

In sum, the election season has started in Germany but the uncertainty for the German people persists as the economy is in a bad state and there is no guarantee that a stable government will emerge out of the next year’s elections. (IPA Service)