Campaigning concluded on Monday. How strong is the women power will be recorded again on November 20 when the exercise will conclude with polling in the remaining 38 constituencies. The outcome of the JMM-led coalition’s attempt to defend power and the BJP-led combine’s high-profile attempt to wrest control of Jharkhand will be known on November 23.

The ruling coalition includes the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Communist Party of India- Marxist Leninist (Liberation). Politically it is the INDIA Bloc, but for the Jharkhand Assembly election the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India are on their own, being in the fray as separate entities. The Opposition combine has, apart from BJP, All Jharkhand Students Union Party led by a former deputy chief minister Sudesh Mahto, Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

In terms of numbers, there is not much difference between male and female electors — Of the total voter strength of 2.59 crore, women electors count 1.28 crore and there are 1.31 crore male voters. The total number of electors include 11.05 lakh first-timers in the 18-19 year-age group.

Taking note of the fact that women constitute an influential vote bank and often under circumstances beyond control male voters skip their right to franchise which results in women outnumbering male electors in many booths in a good number of constituencies, chief minister Hemant Soren got his cabinet in August this year to clear the Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana under which women in the 18-50 age group, who qualified as per conditions laid down, were given cash assistance of Rs 1,000 per month.

Women in the 50 years and above age group were already getting Rs 1,000 per month under the universal pension scheme. After an analysis of the voting figures of the Lok Sabha elections held six months back, in a smart move the Soren cabinet decided October 14 last to hike the cash assistance under the MMSY scheme to Rs 2,500 per month – an increase of as much as Rs 1,500 – with effect from coming December. Which means that if the JMM-led coalition comes back to power on November 23, women will automatically become entitled to the higher cash assistance of Rs 2,500 per month from December. In fact, this may induce women voters to keep the ruling side in view for their preference. This is only in the realm of possibility ; for in elections in our country there are currents and under-currents that influence voter preferences.

Judging by the political narrative people of Jharkhand have had occasions to be familiar with well before the announcement of the election schedule by the Election Commission of India, it would appear BJP leadership made a tactical mistake by announcing well in advance that the cash assistance would be hiked to Rs 2,100 per cent should their coalition succeed in forming the ministry This incentive has been christened Gogo Didi Yojana (GDY). In Santhali language, Gogo means mother. Sisters (usually elder) are addressed as Didi in Hindi. This announcement afforded an opportunity to the JMM-led ministry to act swiftly and announce a raise in the cash aid to Rs 2,500 per month on October 14 last. So, at the moment, when seen in isolation, it is Maiya Samman versus Gogo Didi.

A close read of the manifestos – three, in all – is necessary for reaching an inference of sorts. The three are: Sankalp Patra of BJP and its partners released by Union home minister Amit Shah in Ranchi on November 3, Nyay Patra of INDIA Bloc released jointly on November 5 in Ranchi by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, chief minister Soren and other leaders of the combine. A separate manifesto was released in Ranchi by JMM supremo Shibu Soren on November 11, the last date for campaigning for the first phase. Obviously, this was decided at the last moment.

In an attempt to enhance its appeal to the women vote bank, the INDIA Bloc promised to supply gas cylinders to “poor families” at just Rs 450 each. The BJP document has offered to formulate a Phoolo-Jhano Padho Bitiya scheme for kindergarten to post-graduate studies for girls from “poor and Backward Class families”. It has also offered to provide six nutrition kits and Rs 21,000 to every pregnant women under a maternity protection programme.

The document has further assured households of two free LPG cylinders a year and thereafter they will be entitled to buy refills at Rs 500 each. BJP’s proposed incentives for girl students from poor and backward class families and for pregnant women do appear as an attempt to compensate women voters for the lower cash assistance (Rs 2,100 against INDIA Bloc’s Rs 2,500 per month

Be that as it may, the chief minister and his party would appear to have acted smart and sprung a surprise on the BJP-led coalition by declaring that if they returned to power their ministry would reserve 33 per cent jobs for women in government offices.

Meanwhile a report in The Hindu last month quoted Jharkhand’s chief electoral officers K Ravi Kumar as saying that a good reason why political parties were wooing this segment (women) of the population “was active participation by them and the migration of men from the state”. Of the 1.7 crore electors who cast their votes in the 14 Lok Sabha seats earlier this year, 87.11 lakh were women and 83.85 lakh were men. (IPA Service)