The latest USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service’s report, published on November 8, has raised the estimation of rice imports by the Philippines for the marketing year from the earlier predicted 4.9 million tons, only a month ago. The country’s rice production is increasingly falling short of consumption. The Philippines’ marketing year for milled rice begins in July. During the last marketing year, the Philippines imported five million tons of rice surpassing the earlier projection by 300,000 tons. The country now relies mostly on Vietnam for rice imports.

Interestingly, Vietnam itself is a major rice importer. During the current year, Vietnam has imported more rice than ever before. In the first 10 months of 2024, Vietnam imported rice worth nearly $1.2 billion, a 72.9 increase from the same period in 2023. The US Department of Agriculture projects that Vietnam will import 2.95 million metric tons of rice in the 2024-25 marketing year, which would be an all-time high.

The global rice trade is a big puzzle as importers often turn exporters taking advantage of duties and qualities of grains in demand. Vietnam's rice imports have increased due to a number of factors. They include a fall in the domestic rice supply as farmers prefer growing higher quality rice varieties for export. Imported rice forms a significant part of Vietnam's domestic market, providing a more affordable option for consumers and animal feed producers. The Philippines’ low rice import duty makes the country a preferred destination for global rice exporters.

India, the world’s second largest rice producer after China and the biggest rice exporter ahead of Thailand and Vietnam, is also emerging as a rice exporter to the Philippines. Last year, India approved shipment of 295,000 tons of non-basmati white rice to the Philippines, the highest allocation it gave to a foreign country after lifting the restriction to specific nations. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, the Philippines’ rice import from India was worth US$46.72 million, last year.

Recently, Telangana’s Civil Supplies Minister N. Uttam Kumar Reddy held a video conference with the Minister of Food and Agriculture of the Philippines to discuss the possibilities of paddy export to the Philippines to the tune of 300,000 tons. India accounts for more than one-third of the global rice exports. India's rice exports are known for their quality and aroma, and include both Basmati and non-Basmati varieties. Its major competitors in the rice export market are Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia. Shipments from China have lately declined.

Surging Philippine rice imports are the growth driver of the global rice export market. The Philippines’ milled rice production has been dropping since the marketing year of 2022-23 from 12.625 million tons to 12.325 million tons in 2023-24 and 12.3 million tons in 2024-25. On the other hand, the country’s rice consumption has been constantly rising from 14.8 million tons in the 2020-21 marketing season going up to 16.6 million tons in 2023-24. Along with the rice, the Philippines’ corn imports too were forecasted to hit a record 1.65 million tons in 2024-25. The demand for corn continues to grow in the country primarily due to higher use of corn feed by the livestock and poultry industry, as well as higher industrial use for making snacks and starch. As in the case of rice, output of corn has failed to keep pace with rising demand. Corn producers are affected by pest infestations, frequent typhoons and lack of appropriate land in recent years.

The Philippines has been pioneering new rice production technologies since the 1970s. However, the country failed to properly implement them while others benefited from the knowledge. It had even developed climate change resilient rice cultivation schemes to reduce the impact of agricultural activities on the environment. The Philippines exported rice from 1977 to 1980, but was unable to sustain it. Briefly, the country resumed exporting rice in 2013.

The Philippines' experience with rice exports is tied to the Masagana 99 program, which was launched in 1973 by the then president Ferdinand Marcos. The program was initially successful, helping the Philippines achieve self-sufficiency in 1975–1976 and export rice to neighbouring Asian countries in 1977–1978. However, the success was short-lived. The programme had failed by 1980. Its credit scheme was flawed. Bank loans were only accessible to wealthy landowners, while leaving poor farmers in debt. It also became a tool for political patronage.

High annual population growth rate (2.5 percent), shrinking cultivable rice production area (1.8 percent per annum) and levelling-off of rice fields are said to be among the reasons behind the growing shortage of rice in the Philippines. In 2021, the Philippines became the first country to approve commercial cultivation of a genetically engineered rice, called Golden Rice, which contains more beta-carotene. The rice was developed by the Department of Agriculture-Philippine Rice Research Institute in partnership with the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

Golden Rice is designed to help reduce childhood malnutrition. The country has developed climate change resilient rice cultivation schemes to reduce the impact of agricultural activities on the environment. It is going in for hybrid rice production in a big way following the examples of China, India and Vietnam to increase rice output. However, it seems the original home of the International Rice Research Institute has somewhat missed the opportunity. The Philippines may remain a major rice importer in the near future. (IPA Service)