Does it mean that the Ukraine war is now in a more destructive phase with the potential of leading to a new world war like situation. The answer is possibly NO. There may be effective negotiations for ceasefire after Trump takes over on January 20.. Significantly, President Joe Biden gave the permission soon after his meeting with the President elect Donald Trump at White House last week to discuss the ways of transition of power. The issues were discussed including Ukraine. US media sources said that Trump did not give any importance to Biden’s plea for continuing the US policy of active assistance to Zelensky. A great Frank Sinatra fan, Trump gave enough indications ‘I will do it my way’.

Donald Trump is taking over on January 20, 2025 and during this intervening period, the lame duck President Joe Biden should not have taken such a decision when it is known that the new President has a ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine and Trump advisers have already indicated in different interviews in recent days that Ukrainian President has been pampered by the West far too long and it is time that Zelensky should be persuaded to go for negotiations with President Putin. Trump advisers say that Trump knows how to make a deal and whatever he does, will not be a boost to President Putin. This is to assure the NATO members who are worried that if Trump forces for a peace plan on Ukraine and Russia gains, President Putin will be more expansionist in the eastern part of Europe. The NATO members of Eastern Europe like Hungary and Poland are apprehensive of Russian aims, so are some Scandinavian countries.

President Zelensky is also aware of the possibility of a basic change in US policy after January 20 when Trump takes over. That’s why while addressing the European Parliament this week, he called for ‘Real Peace’. He knew that the American assistance would be uncertain once Trump takes over. So in the remaining days till January 20, the Ukrainian forces have to retain its territory from Russian advance and also reoccupy some more from the Russians so that even if Trump forces negotiations on him after January 20, he is in a bargaining position. There are 60 days left more before Trump takes over. President Zelensky will do his best to make use of this period by getting more arms and using high tech US missiles to hurt the Russians.

How is Zelensky getting emboldened to start missile strike against Russian positions knowing fully that the present US administration will no longer be there after January 20 once Trump takes over. Let us look at what the outgoing secretary of state Antony Blinken said last week. He said’ every dollar, we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door to Ukraine between now and January 20’. This means that this flow can only continue till January 20. But what is unfortunate about the so called liberal Biden presidency is that the administration has made some legislative changes to put Ukraine assistance on recallable category. For Trump to make any change, it will need its withdrawal meaning more time will be needed for doing anything for scaling down assistance to Zelensky officially.

Already boosted by Iranian attack drones and North Korean artillery shells and ballistic missiles, Russia has now deployed 11,000 North Korean troops, some of whom Ukraine says have clashed with Ukrainian forces who have seized a part of Russia’s Kursk region. For Zelensky, the emerging collaboration between Russia, China and North Korea is ominous from his strategic military perspective. China may not send troops but its bonhomie with Russia gives President Putin a big advantage in dealing with the West.

President Zelensky is sticking to his demand for full Russian withdrawal from all occupied territory within Ukraine and security guarantee from NATO against future Russian incursion. On the other hand, Russian position is that Ukraine must withdraw all troops from the provinces claimed as its territory by Russia. Zelensky significantly talked of the possibility of negotiations early next year He has given enough signal that he is ready for negotiations but Ukraine’s interests have to be protected and protection of Ukraine’s interests is linked to the security of Europe also.

So, what exactly can happen? It is quite likely that both Russia and Ukraine will be fighting hard in the winter months till January 20, fortify their respective positions as much as possible before Trump takes over. The peace formula will finally evolve on the line of control with few adjustments here and there. Trump advisers mention that both President Putin and President Zelensky should be allowed to have an escape route. Putin cannot emerge as victorious after the negotiations but at the same time, he cannot be humiliated.

However, there is no question of humiliating Putin. Putin is in a stronger position now, despite Ukraine getting the right to use high tech missies against Russia. Trump has a long term transactional relationship with President Putin. The Republican President has enough flexibility to deal with the Russian President. Trump will look more after the American interests as per his MAGA programme than caring for the stature of a small town political leader like Zelensky or the security concerns of the West. If Trump can market his peace plan by hook or crook and end the Ukraine war, that will be a big feather in his cap of international diplomacy and will be a big trophy for the new regime in the beginning of 2025. (IPA Service)