Expectedly, Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi won from Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency - her maiden election win – with a thumping majority of over 4 lakh votes.

The Chelakkara win has demolished the propaganda of the opposition that the CPI(M) would lose the seat as the anti-incumbency sentiment is quite pronounced in the constituency. And that it would be an emphatic endorsement of the Opposition’s claim that there is indeed a strong anti-Government wave sweeping the constituency. Well, the results have proved the carping critics wrong.

Incidentally, this is the seventh consecutive victory for the LDF in Chelakkara. It has not lost an election from the constituency since 1996. And Pradeep also managed to surpass his majority of 10,200 votes in the 2016 Assembly election. It was a prestigious battle and the CPI(M) candidate romped home a winner with a comfortable majority. A loss here would have vindicated the Opposition’s claim that there is a pronounced anti-Government sentiment in the State. Conversely, the Congress candidate Ramya Haridas failed to convert the so-called anti-incumbency sentiment into votes.

As for the Palakkad assembly constituency, the Congress successfully defended its citadel, overcoming a high-voltage campaign conducted by both the CPI(M) and the BJP. True, the CPI(M) came third once again. But, the party has managed to poll nearly 9000 votes more in this by-election. That is no mean achievement given the odds against which the party and the LDF were facing in the constituency.

Understandably, the Congress camp is jubilant over the Palakkad victory. The Congress was worried about the slew of resignations from the party over the candidature of Rahul Mangoottathil, who defied all predictions by winning the seat with a record majority of 18,840 votes. The Palakkad by-election was necessitated by the victory of Shafi Parambil following his election to the Lok Sabha from Vadakara in April this year.

But the Congress victory in Palakkad is marred by the fact that it had a secret pact with communal forces like the Social Democratic Party of India(SDPI) and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The Congress, it may be mentioned, had refused to say that it won’t accept the votes of fundamentalist forces like the Jamaat and SDPI. The Palakkad election was also marked by dramatic events like the CPI(M) fielding a defector from the Congress, Dr. P. Sarin as its Independent. The run-up to the polling was noted for the midnight raids on Congress leaders and an accusation by the CPI(M) of the Congress using black money to influence the voters.

But the biggest setback in Palakkad was for the BJP, which had pinned high hopes on winning the seat this time. Palakkad is known as a stronghold of the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP candidate and Metroman E Sreedharan lost to Shafi Parambil of the Congress by a slender margin of 3000 odd votes. In a rude jolt to the party, BJP candidate C. Krishnakumar suffered a humiliating defeat in Palakkad this time. And the BJP suffered a big erosion of its vote base – close to 11,000 votes less than what it polled in the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP was also rocked by internal rebellion as the various groups in the party obviously worked at cross purposes. Krishnakumar’s candidature was opposed by the rival faction in the BJP led by senior leader Sobha Surendran who herself wanted to contest from Palakkad. Denial of seat to her obviously alienated her supporters in the party, leading to the defeat of the BJP nominee. Another major reason for the BJP’s defeat was the defection of party’s spokesman Sandeep Warrier to the Congress just before the by-election. Though the BJP leaders are saying that the Sandeep factor played no role in the party’s defeat, the truth is that it did have an adverse effect on the party’s fortunes. Not surprisingly, the BJP’s loss has intensified the demand for a change in the party’s state leadership. The demand for the ouster of party’s state chief K. Surendran has gathered momentum.

As expected, Priyanka Gandhi scored a thumping maiden election victory from Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency. In the process, she won the seat with a bigger margin than her brother Rahul Gandhi. Priyanka became the Congress candidate from Wayanad after Rahul relinquished Wayanad and opted to retain Rae Bareli seat which also he won with a big margin. Incidentally, Rahul’s margin had dropped from 4.3 lakh votes in 2019 to about 3.6 lakh this year in Wayanad. But belying all dire forecasts, Priyanka scored a thumping victory despite the voter turnout coming down to 64.72 per cent, a decrease of 9 per cent from the previous election. In fact, the drop in poll percentage seemed to have affected CPI candidate Sathyan Mokeri and BJP’s Navya Haridas more. Navya in fact lost her deposit.

The result came as a disappointment for the CPI. Expectations were that Sathyan, who gave a run for the money to Congress candidate M I Shanavas in Wayanad in the 2014 Lok Sabha polled 70,000 votes less than CPI’s Annie Raja in the last election. This is a matter of concern. And the LDF would do well to take a close look at the reasons for the big drop in its vote share.

The biggest beneficiary of the by-election outcome is, of course the LDF. The opposition has been deprived of a major propaganda chip – that the LDF Government has lost people’s support and that the anti-incumbency factor would ’s cause the front’s defeat in Chelakkara. But by winning Chelakkara with a handsome margin, the LDF has effectively silenced its detractors. The victory has given the CPI(M) and the LDF a booster shot. And the LDF can look forward to the local bodies election next year and the Assembly elections in 2026 with greater confidence. (IPA Service)