The Lok Sabha elections 2024 and the following state assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand have shown that the Indian voters are quite volatile in their electoral behaviour and the mood changes very fast. New factors emerge neutralising the advantages gained in earlier elections. This proves the maturity of the Indian electorate. The task is tougher for the political strategists of the two competing alliances to assess correctly the evolving political mood in such changing environment.

For the INDIAN Bloc, there has been some setback in the elections outcome in the last six months after the Lok Sabha polls, but there are some bright spots also.. INDIA Bloc has to take proper lessons from the reverses and start the process of correction so that the NDA, especially the BJP can be contained in the states ruled by NDA where the assembly elections will be held in the next two years.. Two lessons are there, in Maharashtra, the last minute implementation of the women centred schemes had a big impact on women voters in the poll leading to Mahayuti's massive victory. And the second is that the tribals stuck to the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand defying all the anti-Hemant campaigns by the BJP.

In 2025, the first election will be held in February to elect the Delhi assembly. This will be followed by the elections to the Bihar assembly at the end of the year. As regards Delhi, indications are that the AAP and the Congress will be contesting separately. AAP thinks whatever be the results in the last Lok Sabha election, the party will be comfortable in fighting alone in the coming polls to defeat BJP. If the two INDIA partners stick to it, there is going to be a three cornered contest to the advantage of the BJP. AAP should keep it in mind that Delhi is not Kerala. BJP has a very strong base and this time, it is advantageously placed to meet the AAP challenge. INDIA Bloc's senior leaders should make all efforts to ensure that am understanding is reached just like 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If this does not take place, the outcome can go either way.

As regards Bihar, the main responsibility on behalf of the INDIA Bloc is with RJD. In last assembly elections, the INDIA Bloc lost narrowly but the Lok Sabha elections revealed some big gaps in INDIA Bloc's campaigning. These have to be taken care of now and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has to operate as a leader of the entire INDIA Bloc looking with the objective of defeating the NDA, irrespective of the party. The Congress has to bargain for seats in keeping with its strength. Its strike rate in the last elections was the lowest.

About the assembly elections in 2026, INDIA Bloc is most comfortable in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. In Bengal, whether any alliance takes place or not with the Congress, Trinamool Congress is comfortably placed to increase its seats from the present strength of 223 seats out of the total 294. In fact at the recent high level meeting of the TMC leadership early this week, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee gave a target of 260 to the TMC leaders for winning in the 2026 assembly elections out of 294. Accordingly, the TMC is organising the booth level machinery from the beginning of next year. The BJP got 77 seats in 2021 assembly elections, but its present strength is down to 69 after by poll defeats and defections.

In Kerala, the Congress is advantageously placed for the 2026 assembly polls. But the ruling Left Democratic Front led by the CPI(M) is equally preparing to give a big fight to retain power. Either way, the winning party will belong to INDIA Bloc. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK supremo M K Stalin is leading the INDIA Bloc taking all the constituents together effectively. So far, there is no threat to the DMK government. All indications suggest that the DMK led INDIA Front will be back to power comfortably. In Puducherry, the INDIA Bloc has to try hard to capture power. A little more planning and choice of good candidates can make that possible.

For INDIA Bloc, the major problem is Assam which is being ruled by the BJP since 2016. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma of BJP is a wily politician and he has successfully divided the INDIA Bloc parties to remain in power. The Congress, as the leading Bloc party in the state has to share major responsibility for division in the opposition ranks. The Congress organisation is in bad shape and the state party is not getting proper direction from the high command.

This time, the Congress high command has to give Assam top priority. There is virtually no INDIA Bloc after the rift in the latest by polls. where the Congress lost in all seats including one traditional seat, the party never lost. The INDIA Bloc has to be activated with the participation of some regional parties, TMC and the left parties. There has to be continuing agitations against the Himanta government by the combined opposition led by INDIA Bloc. A good section of Assamese people are fed up with Himanta but they see no alternative as the INDIA Bloc parties are unable to act jointly. It is high time that INDIA Bloc leadership acts to put the Assam opposition on a proper track.

The assembly elections and by polls have thrown up both new and old faces in the INDIA Bloc parties who can act as drivers of change for the Bloc to intensify the tempo of struggle against the BJP. Priyanka Gandhi who has entered the Lok Sabha in the latest by poll in Wayanad constituency of Kerala can be a big asset to the INDIA Bloc in the upcoming fight against the BJP in the assembly elections. Priyanka has been projecting the right issues all through. She has been consistently advocating the women's issues including the cash transfer for long. She can be one of the principal leaders of the INDIA Bloc.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is already recognised as the giant killer by defeating BJP all through in all Bengal elections. She was the first woman chief minister to introduce innovative scenes of schemes to help the women, both old and young. Her model is being extensively followed by the other states. Presently, women of the marginalised as also middle class are most vocal in asserting their authority in the elections. They are nearly 50 per cent of the voters. Both Priyanka and Mamata should be effectively used by the INDIA Bloc. That will give big political and electoral dividends in the coming years.

Similarly Hemant Soren has emerged taller through the Jharkhand assembly polls. He has fought for the rights of the tribals in his state and won. The BJP has started a big outreach to the tribals nationally. Hemant must be projected as the face of tribals of the INDIA Bloc nationally to meet the BJP challenge. He has big potential to play a major role in national politics. His wife Kalpana Soren is another new discovery who can be properly utilised by the INDIA Bloc.

Then, Dipankar Bhattacharya of the CPI(ML)-L has emerged as a leader with potential whose talent can be utilised nationally by the INDIA Bloc leaders. He has a record of long struggle amongst both labour and tribals. He has led the CPI(ML)-L to victory in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections from Bihar. A person with immense knowledge about the real India and the stage of its people's struggles, can contribute intellectual inputs from the Left camp to the framing of INDIA strategy. Dipankar , in fact, can fill the space of Sitaram Yechury that has become vacant to the INDIA Bloc after his sudden demise in August this year.

Since the Lok Sabha election results were out on June 4 this year, there has been no high level meeting of the INDIA Bloc. It is time, the Bloc operates as a highly pro active coordinating body. There are many issues in the states which require immediate intervention at the central level. That has to be done by the INDIA Bloc leaders at national level. The leadership should immediately zero in on a new convener. Two names can be considered Mamata Banerjee and M K Stalin. Enough time has been lost. Let the INDIA Bloc act as a dynamic body again. (IPA Service)