In fact, this is the second big retreat of Russia from Asia after spending billions of dollars to prop up the ruling regimes. The first one was in 1990s after the Russia decided to withdraw from Afghanistan leaving Dr. Najabullah government in the lurch at the hands of the advancing Afghan Talibans. Dr. Najabullah was hanged. Assad, that way, was lucky. He sent his family members to Moscow days before and saved his life by fleeing to Moscow.

The Damascus scenario of December 8 Sunday has some similarities with the developments that took place in Bangladesh at Dhaka on August 5 when Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister had to flee to India fearing that she would be killed by the demonstrators who were proceeding to attack her official residence. She was asked to leave by her army chief himself. She had to leave in a hurry in a Bangladesh air force plane. Deposed President Assad before leaving called for a peaceful transition to avert bloodshed. His Prime Minister in fact welcomed the rebels and called on the anti-Assad leaders to form the new government in a peaceful manner.

Who are the anti-Assad rebels and what is their programme for a new Syria? This is a very complex question as the anti-government coalition is a motley combination of Islamists, a section of regional tribal chiefs and even includes some so called socialists. The main component is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) backed by Turkey and this main group is called Syrian National Army.

HTS was originally financed by the US administration through CIA in 2013 as a US strategy to weaken Russian backed Assad regime, just in the pattern of the US assistance to the Talibans in the initial period of the Afghan war. But in later years, the US withdrew its direct assistance though in other ways, the US agencies helped the rebels. The U.S. could not officially help the rebels as they were suspected to be Islamists with al-Qaida links. Turkey then came to the centre stage and started helping the anti-Assad coalition. Turkey has interests in the Syrian areas bordering it. Presently, its bordering region hosts nearly 2.9 million Syrian refugees. Turkey is very much interested in pushing them to their homeland in the event of the rebel government taking shape.

The HTS rebels are confusing every stake holder in the West Asian war. The leaders say that they have no connections with al- Qaida now, but they are hardcore Islamists. President elect Donald Trump who is defacto directing the US foreign policy now, told in Paris that the US had no interest in the Syrian war. He was not speaking the truth, the US has certainly has interests but the US would like to establish its relations first with a section of the new Syrian government and then go ahead with its decision. Right now, the Islamists at the top are very much against both US and Israel. The US agencies are working from behind to ensure that they could find a few persons in the new administration who would be vulnerable to their pressure.

As regards Israel, the fall of Assad is a very positive development for them. Already, Israel has neutralized Hezbollah and the Lebanon ceasefire is not going to help the dwindling militants to stage a comeback. Israel’s main strong enemy in the region is Iran. Iran has got a setback as the Iranian government invested huge amount of funds in defending President Assad. The weakening of Iran is a gain for Israel. Israel and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be in a better bargaining position vis a vis Trump if the issue of total ceasefire with Hamas is taken up after Trump takes over on January 20.

As of now, HTS leader is Abu Mohammad al-Julani is a recognized terrorist and HTS is also proscribed by the US and UN. Julani is seeking headlines by giving interviews to the international media. The US can not officially negotiate with him unless the terrorist tag is withdrawn. There are 900 US troops in Syria. The Russians have naval bases and personnel in Syrian waters. The US will watch whether Russia withdraws those. The situation is that way too volatile for the super powers to take any final stand right now. They will wait and watch for a few days till the nature of the new Syrian government becomes clear.

But for the present, Turkey is a clear winner. Turkey of late is trying to balance its foreign policy by cosying with both the US and Russia apart from China. Turkey has shown interest in joining BRICS despite being a member of NATO. For Prime Minister Erdogan, the situation is very positive in terms of its diplomatic reach. Turkey will be wooed by both the US and Russia now for becoming an ally in West Asia.

At the same time, if the regional conflicts continue in Syria, Turkey has a good possibility of expanding its geographical boundary to the adjoining areas along Syrian border. Turkey has better relations with HTS leaders among the NATO members. So the US is expected to woo Turkey more to establish links if the present rulers stabilize. But the million dollar question is - Will Syria get a stable government now or the different groups in the coalition will start fighting over the spoils of office.

As regards India, our government has always maintained friendly relations with the ousted President Assad. There are a large number of Indians in Syria, especially in Damascus. Indian foreign ministry has called for peaceful transition of power to the opposition coalition forces and early formation of the Government in Damascus. China which has a strategic relationship with Syria under President Assad has also called for peaceful transfer of power in Syria.

China has large investments in Syria. Last year, after the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to China, President Assad sought help of more Chinese military instructors to train Syrian army personnel. That way, in a small way, China is identified with Assad regime. That is why China also is a bit worried at the victory of Islamist HTS, though the association is too thin compared to the total backing by Russia. That way, all three big powers USA, Russia and China are worried at the likely developments in Damascus, though all of them have called for peaceful transition of power after the fall of Assad. (IPA Service)